Kerry down again in NH Poll: 5 days straight.... 1pt ahead of Clark

[Dookus]

warning: this is not a Kerry bash. I like Kerry very much. Naturally, I prefer Clark, so this is why I'm following this poll closely - I want Clark to pull 2nd in NH.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Dec26-28 Dec27-29 Dec28-30 Dec29-31 Dec 30-Jan 1 Dec 31-Jan 2


Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13%
Dean 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 38%
Edwards 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Gephardt 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Kerry 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14%
Kucinich 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Lieberman 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Undecided 18% 18% 17% 16% 19% 18%


Their analysis is that Kerry's slide is at an end. 93% of his remaining supporters remain "strongly committed" to him.

[BootinUp]

1. Clark still has work to do

But to be tied for second is pretty amazing considering where he was only a month ago. There are still plenty of undecideds to go after.

[ModerateMiddle]

2. "I like Kerry very much."

Me, too. What would happen to the dynamics of this primary race if Kerry and Clark were to team up on a ticket?

[Dookus]

3. well....

nobody teams up before the primaries. It would be silly.

Once we have an obvious winner, THEN s/he will choose a running mate. If history is any guide, it will NOT be one of the current candidates.

[sandnsea]

4. Dean still down 7 pts

The poll immediately before this one had Dean at 45%. Nobody ever seems to mention that. He hasn't recovered at all. Clark has risen 5 pts., which is great. But it sure doesn't explain where Dean & Kerry's 12 pts have gone.

[Dookus]

5. to be clear...

Dean was down 7 points between the LAST poll taken in mid-December and the start of this one. He's held steady (gone up one point actually) in this tracking poll.

[sandnsea]

13. 8 pts actually

And that's my exact point. He fell 8 pts when this poll started and hasn't gained any of it back. Kerry fell during this poll, Dean fell before it. So I don't find it particularly helpful to just ignore part of the equation. It's a distortion of what really happened in NH over the last few weeks. Especially when you consider Clark went from 8% to 13%. The overall movement is much more interesting when you have the whole picture.

[Dookus]

15. I agree....

I just wanted to make clear that Dean's slip was BEFORE the start of this poll, not during it.

[eileen from OH]

22. Actually, it was two different kinds of polls

According to dkos, who follows this stuff very closely, the other poll used a different methodology and asked for things like approval ratings, name ID, etc. So to compare that figure to the current tracking poll is like comparing apples to oranges.

eileen from OH

[CMT]

24. well

it is expected to be some tightening. Dean still has a nearly 3-1 lead over Kerry and Clark. If he wins Iowa that will also increase his numbers. Time will tell.

[Renew Deal]

6. Why did other go up?

Maybe Hillary is running. :silly:

[JI7]

7. sharpton and braun ?

i don't expect them to be in the top or anything. but i can't believe they both have 0 percent.

[KaraokeKarlton]

12. They just haven't been in NH to speak of

NH is all about retail politics and if a candidate doesn't put their feet on the ground and talk to NH voters they aren't going to get any support there.

[jumptheshadow]

17. You mean it has nothing to do with demographics?

Neither of them would need an office in my neighborhood to get votes.

[stickdog]

8. Clark's support is weak.

When applied to the total ballot preferences as it was for Kerry above, 89% of all those saying they will vote for Dean are strongly committed to Dean, whereas 54% of all those saying they will vote for Clark are strongly committed to Clark.

[Jack_Dawson]

11. We'll see about that

won't we?

Clark has never failed at anything in his life.

[CMT]

26. I don't think Dean has ever lost an election

in his career or failed at anything either.

[incapsulated]

9. I expect

These polls will continue to fluctuate until the vote. I've heard support is "soft" there for a lot of candidates. Stay tuned...

[IndianaGreen]

10. Kerry may still drop another point or two

which means that he will be either tied to Clark, or in third place. For someone that was expected to win NH in a cakewalk, Kerry is finished!

Kerry is using his own money to campaign. He still has the money advantage if he wanted to outlast his other rivals that are constrained by FEC rules. His best hope is to finish third overall in the number of delegates. Even is Dean were to collapse, which is always a possibility for any candidate, Clark would still be in solid position to win the nomination.

The odds are heavily against having both the Dean and Clark's campaigns collapse before the convention. One of these two men will be the 2004 Democratic nominee.

[SheilaT]

14. As passionate as

many supporters of all the candidates are, I do think that many people understand quite clearly that their candidate has little or no chance of winning the nomination, and are already considering the alternatives. I'm not sure that means support is soft, but that people are realistic.

[Walt Starr]

16. Looks like that point went to Dean

If Kerry goes down to Clark in NH and ends up third, he's done. Any Kerry campaign after such a humilating defeat can only be considered a minor vanity campaign.

That said, I'm rooting for John. If Clark doesn't take second in NEw Hampshire, the juggernaut of Dean momentum will be nearly unstoppable.

[zulchzulu]

18. NH voters usually decide 72 hours before the election

What happens in Iowa will be a big factor.

Is there a poll in NH for every 30 seconds? That would be cool. :bounce:

[Dookus]

20. heheh...

seems like it, don't it?

Actually, this is an on-going tracking poll, sort of a rolling 3-day poll.

My take is the actual numbers are less important than the trends, right now. The ONLY person moving significantly is Kerry, and it's a downward motion.

I also know that things are likely to change radically before the primary.

[zulchzulu]

19. What's the polling method and MOE?

[Dookus]

21. Click on the link in the original post...

then click on "methodology" at the bottom of the table. The MOE is +/- 4

[CMT]

23. Kerry support is hemmoraging

Dean is still in a strong position. If you combine Kerry and Clark you have 27%. Dean at 38%.

[Dookus]

25. true...

but I see no reason to combine ANY candidates.

Dean will win NH, and he'll probably win it big. The question is, will the NH primary end Kerry's run? I think if Kerry can't place second (or a very very close 3rd), he's probably out of the race.