Chris Bowers, over at mydd (weblog) has an interesting post about the strengths * has going into the election, especially after the repub convention. Here are his main points:
1. Starting in August, Bush will have a significant financial advantage. Kerry will be reduced to $75M, and the 527's will no longer be able to run their negative Bush ads. At the same time, 2. 2. Bush will be able to spend as much as he wants in August, and then will still have another $75M following the GOP convention.
3. Bush could receive a significant convention bounce. Not all convention bounces are the same, and there remains the possibility that Bush's convention bounce will be significantly higher than Kerry's.
4. Media coverage of Kerry is more negative than Bush. While a recent study from the Project for Excellence in Journalism showed that coverage of Bush was negative by a margin of 3-1, coverage of Kerry was negative by a margin of 5-1. Over three and a half months, that could take a significant toll. It could also really hurt Kerry when post-debate spin starts flying.
5. Bush's job approval numbers are still hovering around 50%. See Professor Pollkatz's chart. If Bush were to rise just a few points, he would be in a pretty decent re-elect position.
6. Bush always stays on message during debates. We have all seen it a thousand times--no matter what question Bush is asked, he is always able to talk past the question and stay on his talking points during his response (even if it requires a non-sequitor). Considering the crappy format of modern debates, this will make it very difficult for Kerry to "win" any of the debates.
7. Gas prices could drop significantly. Remember Jerome's chart a couple weeks back? It is entirely possible that little else matters in this election and low October oil prices could almost single-handedly lead to Bush's re-election.
8. Bin Laden remains at large, and the Bush administration is trying to capture him at the best moment possible for shrub's re-election campaign. The ol' July surprise.
Here's the link:
http://www.mydd.com/His main point is that we cannot fall victim to hubris. It's worth a read. Let's have at it!