Why I think it will be over tomorrow.

[grantcart]

Besides the fact that tomorrow the field will be reduced by 180 delegates and Hillary will still have to make up the same 140 delegate deficit is the question about money. The fact that the Clintons have gone quiet about a metric they normally boast about when they have good news is an indicator. The use of the 527 to buy candidate ads in Indiana is another. The change from strident anti-Obama to pandering is another indicator.

But the real reason is unlike us they are talking with the super delegates. They know that the super delegates are not there. The Clintons are not stupid and they will not prolong a futile campaign. They will know tomorrow the number one question that they will be facing is "Is Hillary dropping out?".

They may decide to wait until West Virginia to go out on a big victory but after that she is looking at three more losses in OR, MT and SD.

[livetohike]

1. Lynn Cullen just called Hillary's task "daunting"

:hi:

[hogwyld]

2. Helluva good analysis GC

I hope it pans out!

[grantcart]

3. Andre Mitchell said that Hillary just refused to committ that she was in it all the way

to the convention. She said that Hillary seemed very subdued.

[cliffordu]

21. Jesus, I missed that. If Mitchell is showing doubt, it's OVER....

Ever since Hill offered Andrea's hubby a part time 'chob' wrecking the economy the rest of the way, Missus Mitchell/Greenspan has been in the tank for Hill...

I can hardly blame her. Who'd want Big Al Greenspan hanging around the house in his underwear all day, popping Viagra like breath mints and leering at the hired help??

[kmsarvis]

36. Thanks for the mental image cliffordu.

:puke:

[cliffordu]

39. Anything I can do to help.....

:rofl: :rofl:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

32. Interesting

[harun]

4. I think chances are about 50-50 it will be over. She just doesn't

have too many options left. Obama getting through all the Rev. Wright stuff still standing will keep the Supers from being swayed by fear of an Obama collapse.

[grantcart]

6. The point is while we speculate about Supers they actually talk with them

they know what is coming down the road.

[DangerDave921]

5. Well which is it?

Over tomorrow? Or will it go on till WVa? You say both.

I don't think Hillary will stop until every conceivable option has been fully explored and closed. She will try to seat Michigan and Florida. She will try to convince SD's that Obama is not electable. She will try to win the remaining primaries and win amongst "bread and butter" voters. She will do ANYTHING she can think of to try to eke out the nomination.

The only way she will stop is if the SD's tell her there is no chance at all. And even then, you may find some fingernail marks from her clinging to the exit door while she's being dragged out.

[grantcart]

7. I think the decision to end it is made and that they will end it tomorrow

The SDs have been telling her and we are getting more and more indications of a large SD trickle that is about to break open.

[demwing]

8. We have to understand that, after today, there are MORE SDs left than regular

If Hillary is spending time there, it's because she know that the DS are her ONLY chance.

[grantcart]

9. But her percentage of 'delegate capture' dramatically increases tomorrow

from something like 67% of the remaining delegates to to 75%.

[Spazito]

10. I think it certainly possible...

Taking both the funding deficit and the trending of the SDs to Obama since her PA win, it comes down to not enough money and not enough SDs to take it any further.

[Erin Elizabeth]

11. So you don't think she'll hang in there until the

convention like she and all her supporters were saying and use the "nuclear option?"

If not, I'm glad. For a lot of reasons, but that would just destroy everything and she knows it. She wouldn't get elected and we'd have McSame.

God help us.

The MOMENT she announces her withdrawal from the race, I'm opening a bottle of wine. I don't care what time of day it is. It's long long long in coming.

[grantcart]

13. There is no nuclear option

One guy without sources made a stinking pile of dung.

The people on the rules committee have been in leadership roles for years in the party and love the party more than either candidate that they may now support. The people prmoting this could not name a single person on the committee they think would support it.

Beyond that it isn't with the rules committee. Credential challenges would go to the credential committee and then to the floor of the convention. There is no 'nuclear option' that gives Hillary MI and FL without a floor fight.

Today Hillary confirmed again that it will be decided before the convention.

Even though they sometimes make moves that look stupid to us they are not stupid people. They know the math. Up to today she had a shot. Tomorrow she doesn't. If she decides tonight she has a chance to go out on top.

[Erin Elizabeth]

15. That's what I suspected, thanks.

I've long thought she should drop out after PA since that was a "win" for her and she could go out on a high note, even though she couldn't win the nom.

But she stayed.

So hopefully THIS time it'll be more obvious this thing can't be won by her.

[TBF]

30. So if she goes out tonight with a NC loss, but IN win, how does it help her?

I know she can't win mathematically, but what is she after? Does she still want the VP spot or do you think she'll just go back to congress and focus on 2012?

[cali]

12. I disagree, particularly if Obama's margin of victory in NC is slim

and her's in IN is considerable. Most likely it'll be close to a draw. Hillary will hang in there and fight through June 3, hoping that three big wins will help her, and hoping that something appears to further damage Obama. She won't drop out until after the primary draws to a close.

[grantcart]

14. While that would be encouraging to her I think she is getting a lot of bad news from the SD

more and more SDs are hinting of going to Obama and not a single one is hinting going the other way. If she waits to Oregon she will face the humiliation of Pelosi, Murray, Cantwell and others - including her own super delegates switching - announcing for Obama.

[yodermon]

25. I think the Supers are giving her fair warning, and don't want to embarrass her.

She would save face by dropping out before a big group of SD's announce for Obama.

[grantcart]

26. I agree - and a large chunk of SDs left are add on SDs

from Obama states - 4 more this week alone.

[Cosmocat]

37. That is my sense ...

again, you have to go by what the average of the polls seem to indicate ...

BO by about 6-7 in NC, Hill by about 5-6 in Indiana ...

I think that is enough for her to and hers to claim victory and ride out the next few primaires that favor her, and they get to crow over that ...

3 months now of her running a campaign based on taking BO down ... NO reason for her not to ride it out another month and hope that some other faux BO "scandal" can drag him down ... I know BO people, don't want to admit it, but after the SF remarks left him vulnerable, the MSM put a WORLD of hurt on him over Wright ... 3 weeks of mindboggling piling on ...

It took his loss in Pa from a smaller, maybe 4-5 point loss to the "double digit" range, and I think it took Indiana from a genuine toss up that BO might have won and put Hill down, and gave it to her, and took the big breathing space out of NC ...

They got him REAL good this time ... One more contrived butt kicking, and who knows ...

[H2O Man]

16. While it may not be

that soon, there is talk of a group of super delegates telling Senator Clinton that in a few days' time, there is going to be a block of them coming out for Senator Obama. That may convince her that it is better to go out before the super delegates force her out.

[grantcart]

18. But Ickes is talking to them every day and he is giving her the straight story

She will want to beat them to it.

[H2O Man]

22. That's a good point.

Nothing would surprise me now.

[grantcart]

29. a careful examination of the add on delegates shows that there is a huge advantage

for Obama. Atleast 25 from states that he had commanding victories in. Only 9 in states that she owns and another bunch in big states like CA that will most likely split their add ons.

[kentuck]

17. You may be right.

I hope so. But I suspect it may not happen until there is a deluge of super delegates to Obama.

[grantcart]

24. This week there are 8 more SD add ons expected projecting 4-4 split

Utah 1 5/9/2008 Elected by a quorum of district level delegates during the State Convention
Massachusetts 2 5/10/2008 Elected by the State Party Committee
Ohio 2 5/10/2008 Selected by the State Executive Committee
Colorado 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention
Kansas 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention


Hillary will now need 70+% so every Obama split is another dagger for Hillary.

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. You may well be right...

unless there are significant indications that Obama's support is starting to seriously erode. It would have been crazy for Clinton to not strenuously contest today's contests to test if perhaps that is the case, but without that happening she doesn't have much of a chance and I think she would face it.

[grantcart]

42. I agree

[Q3JR4]

20. If I were Hillary Clinton I'd be very unhappy right now.

At the beginning of this thing she was the presumptive nominee for the democratic party. Period. Conventional wisdom held that it was all over the moment she put her name into the hat, but then along came this upstart from Illinois who completely blew her out of the water. That has to hurt.

Q3JR4.
“Getting over a painful experience is much like crossing monkey bars. You have to let go at some point in order to move forward.”

“Remember that not getting what you want is sometimes a wonderful stroke of luck.” - Dali Lama

[cliffordu]

23. Excellent analysis, as usual, Grantcart. KandR

[grantcart]

27. of the outstanding add on Super Delegates left to be appointed

25 are from states Obama took decisively.


13 are from larger states that went Clinton but you would expect some Obama add ons.


9 are from states Clinton took decisively.

[myrna minx]

28. K&R n/t

[cottonseed]

31. If I were her I'd wait until after OR, MT, and SD

If I were the Democratic party I may actually prefer that as well. Just have her tone down the campaign until then, take the 3 losses and point to that as a good fight lost. She'd drop out then.

Shutting down the campaign after tomorrow won't look so good for Obama when WV and KY come out against him. I'd rather see her campaign and win those states, then fizzle out in OR, MT, and SD and then go ahead and stop the campaign.

In the meantime the Dem party should make the connection between "white working class" voters and the generational party establishment vote. This hogwash about whites not voting for Obama is not helpful and should be mended before Hillary leaves.

[momster]

33. From your fingers

to God's flatscreen.

[grantcart]

41. lol

[ladjf]

34. I don't think that she will voluntarily quit ever.

[Prophet 451]

35. Dear Lord, I hope so

I'm past ready for this bloody race to be over. This primary has been more vicious than the 2000 and 2004 general campaigns.

One thing I do question though is the idea that there is no nuclear option. Not in the conventional sense maybe but if the Clinton campaign is insane enough (and I'm not sure there), they could always drag the matter of Fl and MI's primaries into court.

[bigbrother05]

38. 2 SD for Obama Maryland

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/05/obama_nets_maryland_superdeleg.html

[grantcart]

40. Hillary will have to get over 80% of the remaining SDs

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5842228