New National Poll: Dean 23, Clark 10, Lieb. 10, Gep 6, Sharp. 5

[HFishbine]

The first complete "post-capture" poll. MOE +/- 6%. Dec. 14 - 16.

(previous month's results)

Dean: 23 (14)
Clark: 10 (9)
Lieberman: 10 (9)
Gephardt: 6 (12)
Sharpton: 5 (3)
Kerry: 4 (7)
Edwards: 2 (2)
Moseley Braun: 1 (4)
Kucinich: 1 (2)
Other: 10 (15)
Don't know: 28 (23)

The only statistically meaningful moves are the increase for Dean and the decline for Gephardt.

on edit -- some additional good news (or the only good news, depending on your point of view):

Bush vs. Dem
--------------
Bush: 44 (42)
Dem: 40 (41)

No significant impact from the capture of Saddam.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Reality Poll: Clark 1st, Dean 2nd

It's our only shot at beating Bush. You know it, I know it. Hope everyone figures it out in time.

[Demobrat]

8. In case you haven't noticed, the "Clark Can Win" meme is not working.

You guys need to get another strategy fast.

[CMT]

11. as far as I can tell

all the polls indicate that right now all of our candiates lose to Bush. Oh, Gallup indicates Clark does better than Dean, but NBC has a poll out from same time frame which says Dean does better than Clark vs. Bush. Then there are state polls such as Pennsylvania which has Dean as only candidate who keeps Bush under 50%. Then there is Florida where both Dean and Clark are running 8-points behind Bush.

So you can find polls to support every argument. The Clark is only one can win has not held water since the euphoria after he got into the race. I think any of our major candidates can win, but by only saying over and over that Clark "is our only shot" is a disservice and non-supportable.

[Demobrat]

18. It's all they've got.

Sad but true.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. What poll is this?

There are so many right now, but obvious that the trend is All Dean. What's significant is that these are the first polls showing him pulling away from the pack.

[HFishbine]

5. Sorry

Sorry, it's a CBS/NY Times poll. The links have been added to the orginal post.

[ozone_man]

3. Looks like an even newer poll (Zogby).

Dean: 28%
Lieberman 8%
Gep 7%
Clark 6%
Kerry 4%
Undecided 35%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=773

[HFishbine]

6. Thanks

I hadn't seen the new Zogby poll yet. Also from the Zogby poll (also "post-capture"):

Bush: 47%
Any Dem: 42%

And this, which I cannot comprehend without casting aspersions on the awareness of America's youth:

Lieberman leads Dean among likely voters under 30, 16% - 13%, but Dean enjoys a wide margin among those ages 30- 65. Dean and Gephardt are in a virtual tie among those ages 65+.

[ozone_man]

10. I think Dean has the under 24 group,

from a few things I've seen.

Things go in cycles, generational influences, cultural influences, etc. The youngest voters are the new hope for the country, and I think they're pretty aware.

[YNGW]

4. Dean's gonna get the nomination

I still haven't decided who I'm going to vote for, but I have no doubts that it is Dean's to lose at this point.

[HFishbine]

7. Even as a Dean supporter

I wouldn't go that far. I hope you're right, but it would ignore history and the strenght of some of the other candidates to make such a bold prediciton with any conviction.

[YNGW]

16. Well....

....that's just the kind of guy I am; bold, confident in my convictions, & willing to throw caution into the wind.

[jumptheshadow]

9. You forgot to note this

"In a potential sign of concern for Democrats who are contemplating the prospects of a contest between Mr. Bush and Dr. Dean, one-quarter of registered voters already have an unfavorable view of Dr. Dean."

Also, one-third of Democratic voters rate Dean favorably while half of all Democrats don't know enough about him to have an opinion of him.

From the same poll.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/18/politics/campaigns/18POLL.html

[stickdog]

14. :eyes:

"In a potential sign of concern for Democrats who are contemplating the prospects of a contest between Mr. Bush and Dr. Dean, one-quarter of registered voters already have an unfavorable view of Dr. Dean."

Wow. Freeps hate Dean for pointing out Bush sucks.

[jumptheshadow]

17. And half of all Dems have no opinion

It's going to be a horse race.

[AWD]

12. Uh, oh....

....here comes the "77% hate Dean" meme.

Ofcourse, they will completely ignore their own candidate's numbers and how at least 90% are not fully supporting whoever they may be.

[kentuck]

13. Personally, I think the DU poll is more credible.

:)

[stickdog]

15. That's not even funny.

Nor will the Diebold "strategy" get Clark anywhere.