DU Scoop! Dean probably AHEAD of Bush in latest CNN poll !

[Dems Will Win]

Likely voters were only released rather than the usual Registered voter numbers!! The Big Switcheroo and nobody noticed--except I just did and am putting out an official alert. I want those real numbers!!!!!!

SEE FOR YOUR SELF: http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

As a professional political consultant, I can tell you this is very significant. Likelys are more conservative than registered voters, who typically favor the Dems more by a good 4% to 6%. All the earlier Harris poll numbers released were of registered voters and now they suddenly just release the likelys?

Dean must have been tied with Bush or ahead among the Registered!!

They surveyed 1004 Registered voters between Dec 30 and Jan 1 BUT ONLY RELEASED THE 604 LIKELY VOTER RESULTS!! 400 VOTERS WERE NOT RELEASED IN OTHER WORDS!!

In short, Dean is no doubt ahead of Bush right now among the registered people in that poll and that is much closer to the truth in a Presidential election because more people vote. Then when you consider all the new registers Dean will bring in that aren't counted yet, you have to add another 3% to Dean's total.

If the election were held today, as the question is asked, those New Registers would be counted in a poll--but not until they register.

In any case, this is a real scandal and maybe the real reason CNN and Time are covering up THEIR OWN POLL AS BEST THEY CAN!

NEED A BUSHECTOMY?? CALL DR. DEAN!!

[Hep]

1. Damn liberal media

Although tell me what you think of this theory. The media is HELPING the D's by making the job look tougher, to keep us energized?

I mean, if you set the production quota at your factory higher than your actual goal, you can get your workers to potentially be more productive, right?

If there is a political agenda behind this reporting, and if it's a RW agenda. I see this as a really cyncal tactic that will backfire.

[Dems Will Win]

4. I think they are trying to keep the Democratic surge against Bush

covered up. It destroys Bush's invincible aura and they can keep repeating the BIG LIE that Dean and/or the others are unelectable. DEan is probably ahead of Bush in that very poll and that would be Page One news if they released it.

[napi21]

8. Hope they keep up the cover-up!

I hope your analysis is right, and I believe it is. I also hope they keep covering up the fact that Bush is vulnerable. It's far too long 'til November, and I don't want the Dems to become complacent. If they think it's a lock, we'll lose!

[Dems Will Win]

11. I'd rather have all truth all the time! The real poll would mean that

Dean would get a big boost and win Iowa, NH, SC and all the rest of the primaries. They know that. That's why they didn't release the numbers showing Bush tied or losing to Dean!

[mandyky]

29. Yeah and we don't need anything to happen to Dean

If this administration is half as crooked plus desperate, Dean would end up RFKed as well as reminding me of RFK! And if anything happens to Dean, there would be hell to pay.

[w4rma]

7. Shhh!!!! (n/t)

[flpoljunkie]

19. Interesting, except Zogby will also be polling Likely Voters for Iowa, NH

Iowa
January 8-18
167 per day; rolling averages of 500 likely voters per 3 days (MOE+/-4.5)

New Hampshire
January 18-26
200 per day; rolling averages of 600 likely voters per 3 days (MOE +/-4)

(Perhaps, pollsters use Likely Voters, rather than Registered Voters, as the first primary in the nation draws near).

http://www.zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=208

[ozone_man]

2. Now to get the registered to the polls.

And Dean is good at energizing the electorate. To be this close so soon bodes well for the Democrats in 2004. Good analysis, hope it's right.

[Dems Will Win]

6. We'll never know, the real numbers seem to be under lock and key!

Unless someone out there has seen the Registered numbers??

I'm not holding my breath!!

This involves the other candidates too, they all surged against Bush among the likelys. How did your guy do in the Registered poll?

You'll never know!

[H2O Man]

9. Good sign!

The grass-roots Dean supporters have done a heck of a GREAT job!! I think that it is important that all democrats, even those of us who are actively supporting one of the other candidates, to thank them for the intense energy force that they have created! I mean that in all sincerity.... you men and women are true patriots ... and you and Dr. Dean have my respect and admiration!

[Andromeda]

35. That's such a nice thing to say...

may I ask you which candidate you are supporting?

[Dems Will Win]

36. I bet its Clark

Clark has the most upstanding campaign of all the others besides Dean. He will make an excellent running mate! Clark is great!

Dean/Clark '04 = Bush/Cheney OUT THE DOOR

[FloridaPat]

3. I hope you're right. However, only 60% of the registered

voters even bothered showing up last time. Which was about 36% of the eligible voters. Only 18% of the eligible population got that idiot into office.

[tinrobot]

5. Strange...

Looking at the poll numbers, Lieberman is polling almost the same as Dean.

Ick.

[AP]

10. Another possibility: media released poll which had Dean closer to Bush...

...because other polls showing Dean farther back were helping give traction to the message that Dean couldn't beat Bush in GE match-up, which were leading to eroding support for Dean.

[Dems Will Win]

12. No Likelys include more Republicans and are always more conservative.

You've got it backwards...

[windansea]

13. my thoughts exactly

something fishy about this poll...I think I'll wait for more national polls to see if this one has real validity

[Brian_Expat]

15. We'll see. . .

Meanwhile, I enjoy the fact that Dean beats other Democrats on "winnability" by a large margin -- and that doesn't even include all the new voters he's bringing in with him who are mad as hell and have put over $40 million of their money where their mouth is.

[Hep]

16. If Dean controls the media like that,

We're a sure bet for the GE.

[On the Road]

14. Farther Down the Page

the poll also shows Bush beating Dean 57-28 among independents. Recently independents have broken towards the Democrats. I seriously doubt these results reflect what will happen in the general election.

Good catch on the poll -- fascinating results. Please post any follow up information.

Reminds me of the old joke about the Soviet Union in which a Western visitor finds a Russian surprising well informed about world events when all he has to read is Pravda. The westerner how this is possible, and the Russian replies: "Yes, but you have to know HOW to read Pravda."

[Sean Reynolds]

17. I really think Bush's inside polling has shown this all along.

Hence the beefed up attacks on Dean since September. Rove's been trying to get the nomination out of the grips of Dean because he does best against Bush in the polling.

[KoKo]

22. And much of the hysterical Media attacks on Dean, so early on.

Could be there is real fear there. Maybe even our other Dem Candidates own polls showed Dean surging.

[quaker bill]

33. Nice catch

The damn thing about polls is that the likely voter model had Bush* winning Fla by 5%+ on election eve 2000.

But when black voters showed at the polls as 15 percent of the electorate rather than the 10 percent expected in their model, the race became very close.

Likely voter models are only as good as the assumptions of voter behavior put in them in the first place. These models failed in 2000.

[Padraig18]

18. They also said 80% of Americans believe a Dem *can* beat Dubya in '04!

My jaw hit the ground, when I heard that!

:bounce:

[Dems Will Win]

20. Yup the previous number was 35%

No wonder they are trying to deep-six this poll.

[MoonRiver]

21. I heard it too and had the same reaction!

Is CNN actually going to actually start telling the truth?? Maybe even the media moguls now realize how dangerous this neocon regime is.

[dd123]

34. Where was this about the 80%?

Can't find it online

[KelleyKramer]

23. Where did you get the 1004 number?

You said "They surveyed 1004 Registered voters" but I don’t see that listed on the pollingreport link.

I looked all over both the CNN and Time websites and couldn’t even find the poll.. How do you know they polled 1004 ?

Thanks
Kelley

[Dems Will Win]

24. That number was in the first reports that 1004 Registered voters

were surveyed. Then they only released the 604 likelys. Will look for a link but it will be difficult to find. On the Dem-Dem comparisons they use the Registered Dem voters so you know they did survey Registereds.

[Dems Will Win]

25. Here's the proof of the old switcheroo!

registered voters in the last surveys to likely voters in this one. Since likelys are always more conservative, my bet is that Dean was tied or AHEAD of Bush in this CNN poll. Plus, the poll CANNOT BE FOUND ANYWHERE ON THE CNN TIME WEB SITES!!!!!!

Look at the pollingreport stats again:

-snip-

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Dec. 30, 2003-Jan. 1, 2004. N=604 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between , the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: ?"

Bush Dean Not Sure
51 46 3
Among all registered voters:

11/03
52 40 8

9/03
52 42 6

-snip-

They are switching from Registered to Likely voters. That's like comparing Liberal apples to Conservative oranges as Likelys are always several points more Republican!!

THEY ARE COVERING UP THE REAL RESULT. DEAN MUST HAVE BEEN MUCH CLOSER OR BEAT BUSH IN THE FULL SURVEY OF REGISTEREDS!

[mzmolly]

26. This is amazing!

:toast:

[janx]

27. Yes it is.

I've never heard of anything like this before the primaries...?

[mzmolly]

30. Me either, it's "totally" shocking.

:)

[stickdog]

28. Nice. DU to the rescue!

Just like the old days!

[Dems Will Win]

31. KICK!

[Dems Will Win]

32. Kick!

[ProudToBeLiberal]

37. kick

:kick:

[DFLforever]

38. A good kick for truth in polling!

:kick: