Can Republicans hold on to the Senate?

[dArKeR]

By Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 5:48 p.m. ET Aug. 11, 2004



WASHINGTON - After two years in the minority, the Democrats have a chance to regain control of the Senate in this November’s elections, with strong candidates vying for Republican-held seats in Colorado, Alaska, Illinois and Oklahoma.

Given the residue of bitterness from the Democrats’ use of the filibuster to block President Bush’s judicial nominees, if the Democrats gain a majority, they’ll face difficulties as great as the Republicans now do in passing bills or confirming judicial nominees, if John Kerry wins the presidency in November.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5674000/

[fujiyama]

1. Tough to do it

Dems have to win every competetive race -- OK, AK, FL, LA, NC, and CO. Granted, that's assuming GA and SC aren't very likely.

I hope they can, but I think there's a better chance of Kerry elected president than dems getting the majority in either house of congress.

[TSIAS]

3. Yep

Unfortunately, most of the close races are in states that will likely go Bush by a comfortable margin. On the bright side, we have some very good candidates that could well give the Republicans a surprise. Especially in Colorado and Oklahoma, I think we definitely have the superior candidate.

[TSIAS]

2. Don't see a big change

Right now, I think the #'s are 51-48-1 (R). There's only one incumbent who's in legitimate danger, and that's Daschle. Still, he should retain his seat. Unless Hoeffel shows me something soon, I'll assume Specter keeps PA Republican.

We're a lock for Illinois and Obama, IMO. That'll certainly be one net gain.

Johnny Isaakson almost assuredly beats Majette in Georgia. A net loss, albeit not that much of a change from Zell.

Alaska, Colorado, and Oklahoma are all toss-ups or leaning Democrat. Knowles, Salazar, and Carson should be very strong candidates. I'd bet we take at least 2 out of those 3.

I think we keep Louisiana with Chris John, NC with Erskine Bowles, and surprisingly Florida with Betty Castor.

Although Tenenbaum is a strong candidate, she won't be able to win with * at the top of the ticket.

Unless I'm missing a surprise race, I see no net loss or gain. Of course, it only takes one or two races to make a significant alteration in the Senate balance of power.

[Barret]

4. I think we will get the senate back

nt