AP: Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush in Florida

[Trajan]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=696&e=6&u=/ap/20040812/ap_on_el_pr/florida_poll

Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush in Florida

Thu Aug 12, 8:31 AM ET

By BRENT KALLESTAD, Associated Press Writer

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over President Bush in Florida — the essential swing state in the 2000 election, according to a poll out Thursday.


Kerry and running mate John Edwards had the backing of 47 percent, Bush and Vice President Cheney had the support of 41 percent and independent Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo had 4 percent in the Quinnipiac University poll.


Bush and Kerry were deadlocked in Florida at 43 percent each in a Quinnipiac poll in late June.


The August poll found Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the president's younger brother, getting tepid reviews from Floridians. They were evenly split on whether they approve or disapprove of the job the second-term governor is doing.

-snip-

[wtmusic]

1. Better than double the MOE

and trending even better :D

[AndyTiedye]

5. It is Well Within the Diebold "Margin of Error"

Ask former Senator Max Cleland about that.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Do you have a point?

[AndyTiedye]

15. Barnes and Cleland Were Ahead By That Much and they "Lost"

It's only a 6 point lead. The electoral process in Florida is own3d
by the Repubs even more than it was in Georgia in 2002.

Nader's presence in the race keeps it close enough to steal.

The poll is good news, but we need to be further ahead in Florida,
or we need to pick up those electoral votes somewhere else.

[Bombtrack]

17. Georgia had 100 percent diebold machines. Florida's voting isn't uniform

it's not even close to the monopoly of sceptical voting machines (DIEBOLD and ES&S) in other states. California for instance is has far greater a percentage of those machines.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. This is not new information, so you must be trying to make a point.

What is it? That although Kerry is ahead, it would be better if he were farther ahead?


Surely you are trying to make some less obvious point -- what is it?

[oscar111]

2. TEN points is "slight lead"?

---giving us 3/4 of Nader's voters, we have 8 points.

If any undecideds, that would boost us more.

I figure 8 undecided, so we ought to get 5 there.. bottom line,
55:45. we lead by ten.

{AP page and Quinn. U gave no details on the Undecided no. so i had to deduce it}

So how does AP call that "slight"? AP has "slight brains".

NOTE: the hurricanes will hurt us tho... the poor will be devasted, and too desperate for necessities to be able to go vote, some affected severely even 6 months from now. "what is a bump for the middle class is a disaster for the poor" said another DUer.

Why do some call Fl a necessary state? arent all battle states equally needed, if equal EV's ?

[Old and In the Way]

3. Could also motivate them (re: poor and the hurricanes)

If the Bush administrations (state and federal) don't address the needs of the poor who are devasted, that could be impetus to vte change.

[Perky]

4. Florida loss kills Bush

Florida has 27 EVs. it is basically the biggest prize out there to be had since NY,CA and TX are all locked.

The Battleground math suggest that Dubya can't win without FL and OH. If he loses FL he would have to effective sweep everything that is in play. That is doubtful....Therefore, losing FL is a kiss of death.

[AndyTiedye]

6. If We Lose Florida and Maryland (the 2 Diebold States that are "In Play")

then WE have to win every other swing state.

[oscar111]

7. TEN points is real lead

see my just now recalculation, oscar post above

[DaveinMD]

8. Maryland

is not in play. Not one bit. Kerry is up by at least 15 points here. It has to be close to cheat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You Nailed It....

The 00 race in FL was a pickem....


You can steal the close ones....

[AndyTiedye]

16. We Aren't Getting Anywhere Near 3/4 of Nader's Voters

Nothing Kerry has been saying lately is likely to attract Nader voters. If anything, he is alienating them further.
I understand why he is doing it and accept it, but the consequence
is that we have to assume that most who poll for Nader will vote for
Nader or stay home.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

19. Is that true?

What data are you using to make this assertion.

"We Aren't Getting Anywhere Near 3/4 of Nader's Voters"

Is that true? Link, please.

[Joanne98]

11. Notice the language

SLIGHT LEAD. If that was Bush they'd say "Bush makes bold, giant leap forward". grrrrrrrrrr

[genius]

12. So. Gore won Florida by tens of thousands.

[Kahuna]

13. Ahhh. So THAT's why * has been dragging McCain all over FL

with him. Figures.

[newsguyatl]

14. ya know,

this is about the 4 or 5th poll out of the state showing kerry with a 4-5 point lead, some more. why it's still called a "bush leaning" state is beyond me.

oh wait, jeb's there. :eyes: