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Edited on Sun Jun-01-08 11:19 PM by FlyingSquirrel
This time it's not a "Hillary can still win this" post 'cause I think even most of her supporters realize that now it's gotten down to a near-impossibility.
This one is a "What if the caucuses had been primaries" post.
Because in Washington State, we actually can see what might have been.
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So, in WA Obama won the caucuses, 67.5% to 31.2%. He won the primary, 51.2% to 45.7%.
Obama got 16.3% fewer primary votes than caucus delegates, and Hillary got 14.5% fewer primary votes than caucus delegates. An average between the two numbers is 15.4%.
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I'll leave Iowa and Nevada out of this. Let's say that in all the rest of the caucus states, had they been primaries instead, the person who won that state would have received 15.4% fewer votes and the person who lost would have received 15.4% more votes.
Obama has won the remaining caucus state delegates 249 to 118, with 5 uncommitted. That's 66.94% to 31.72% of them. If you reduce Obama by 15.4% and increase Hillary by 15.4%, then Hillary could have gained 57 more delegates while Obama lost 57.
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The current Pledged Delegate count is:
Obama 1740.5, Clinton 1624.5; Total 3,365.0
Subtracting 57 from Obama and adding 57 to Clinton we'd get:
Obama 1683.5, Clinton 1681.5; Total 3,365.0
This is pretty close to being in line with the popular vote.
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Now, I'm not saying that caucuses aren't democratic; I'm certainly not saying Hillary's campaign shouldn't be penalized for the fact that it failed to recognize the importance of the caucus states.
What I'm saying is, Hillary supporters should not be castigated for their reading of the situation. Because the situation is, America is not currently divided 51.7% Obama to 48.3% Clinton, as the current delegate count would suggest; it's divided more like 50.03% to 49.97% (and even that is uncertain).
So Obama is not winning this primary election by a landslide, he's winning it by the barest of margins and that does not give him the kind of mandate some people here are taking from it. Obama's supporters (not all, but a majority of them) here on DU are making the same mistake Republicans made in the last 7.5 years - winning the election by a very slim margin (yes, yes I know they stole it) and using this win to completely tromple on those who did not win.
And acting like Republicans is just not cool.
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