Hes on the far right side of the picture.
http://www.observer.com/2008/obama-warner-scenarioTo the early list of possible running-mates if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, add Mark R. Warner.
Warner is a frighteningly logical pick for the VP spot, with the seemingly insurmountable catch that he committed to running for U.S. Senate from Virginia as soon as Republican John Warner announced his retirement in early September.
But apparently, there’s some wiggle room there.
At a private fund-raiser for a nonprofit organization in New York yesterday, Warner was asked by an attendee about his interest in being a Democratic running mate. In response, he said he was commited to the Senate race, but also noted that he never rules anything out.
And a Virginia investor and influential Warner supporter I spoke to afterward seemed to reaffirm the idea that the VP idea was in play. “I can’t imagine that he’d rule it out,” the supporter said.
With Warner in the Senate race, national Democrats have been penciling in the Virginia contest as an almost-guaranteed Senate seat pickup, a rare opportunity for a sweat-free incursion into traditionally Republican turf. A former governor with stratospheric favorable ratings, Warner leads his presumed Republican opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, by at least 20 points, a margin that probably won’t shrink much before Election Day. (There’s a remote chance that Bob Marshall, an ardent abortion foe in the Virginia House of Delegates, could beat out Gilmore at the G.O.P. state convention this spring.)
UPDATE *** Gilmore won by getting barely over 50% state convention support, not good for him.
But a perfectly plausible scenario exists that would enable Obama (assuming, of course, that he’s the nominee) to tap Warner—something that would instantly enhance the Democratic ticket’s prospects of carrying Virginia and its 13 electoral votes for the first time since 1964—while preserving the party’s strong position in the Senate race.
Warner, 53, would bring more than just his home state popularity to an Obama-led ticket. He would also provide the executive experience missing from Obama’s résumé, and in a campaign in which the economy is increasingly taking center stage, Warner’s business background—he amassed a fortune investing in technology companies and helping to launch Nextel—would boost the ticket’s credibility on the subject. And as a centrist with a knack for winning Republican support, his presence could make Obama viable even in some Southern states.
More to the point, Warner and Obama are in many ways cut from the same stylistic cloth. They’re both believers in a less ideological, future-vs.-past type of politics. Warner’s signature gubernatorial achievement was a tax reform package that raised rates for some in order to preserve the state’s bond rating and to create new revenue for public education. In a tax-phobic state, he enlisted crucial support from business leaders and Republicans—including Senator John Warner—to push the plan through the Legislature.
When Virginia’s one-term limit forced him from office at the end of 2005, his approval rating stood near 80 percent—one of the main reasons Democrat Tim Kaine was able to win a narrow victory to succeed him.But what about that pesky Senate race that Warner committed himself to?
It’s actually not too complicated. Here’s one scenario: Obama secures the nomination in the near future and makes an early announcement that Warner is his running mate—sometime before June, when Virginia’s Democrats will pick their nominee, probably at a state convention (they may also call a primary).
Or Obama could just as easily tap Warner over the summer (the Democratic convention isn’t until August), in which case Warner would simply vacate his Senate nomination. Virginia law allows candidates to withdraw up to 60 days before an election (September 5 this year), with their state party picking a replacement.
It’s also worth noting the overlap between Warner’s political universe and Obama’s. Warner himself hasn’t endorsed anyone for president (because of his status as a Senate candidate), but his wife chaired a “Women for Obama” committee in Virginia. And when Warner opted not to run for president in the fall of '06, most of his top financial backers—Beyer included—shifted their allegiances to Obama, who was then on the verge of entering the race.