How much support will Clark get when other candidates start peeling off?

[MoonRiver]

I think the number will be huge. He's the logical choice for the Kerry people. I also believe that Gephardt will endorse Clark and bring in a lot of his crowd. Dean has so alienated Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman that their supporters are bound to go for Clark. Clark has been very smart not to use attack dog tactics on anybody, and it will pay off big time, IMO. Clark also has superb national security credentials and policy positions.

[Lefta Dissenter]

1. All I have to say is

things are going to be very interesting in the next month or two!

[bhunt70]

2. hopefully a good amount.

[Killarney]

3. I think he is going to continue to gain more momentum.

[Closer]

4. It will be too late

by then.

Dean will have solidified his lead by the time others start dropping out (probably mid to late Feb).

Flame if you want, but I think Clark is D-O-N-E if he gets third in NH behind Kerry, then a 2nd or 3rd in SC.

That will be all she wrote.

[MoonRiver]

6. Well I think he'll be first in SC, so there's where we first disagree.

Plus if he's a very close third (and I'm quite hopeful he'll be second or even first in NH), it won't be highly significant.

If Gephardt drops out after Iowa, some of his supporters will go for Clark. And if Kerry really bombs (say a bad third or worse) in Iowa he might just quit too. Then NH is totally up for grabs.

[deminflorida]

9. You better check out South Carolina Democratic Party website..

it has Dean dropping that lead he had and Clark and him tied!

[Padraig18]

10. Link

2nd request; first request was in another thread. :)

[deminflorida]

15. Here ya go....

http://www.scdp.org/

Primary Preview: Surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina
Released: December 8, 2003

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198

[Lefty48197]

23. The people press link is a great one

lots of good stats in there about the voters thoughts in the big upcoming primary states.

[jpgpenn]

5. I agree with ya

[PDittie]

7. Here's what I'm thinkin':

If Gephardt loses to Dean in IA, he's toast.

If Clark manages second in NH, Kerry is toast.

Next up is SC, very possibly a win for Clark.

Then it's a two-horse race going into Super Tuesday.

[eaprez]

8. Clark Support

Your comment implies that Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman have been the innocent victims of Dean's attacks. I don't know what campaign you've been watching but those three have been attacking Dean relentlessly -- its obvious they are fighting for their policitical lives. They are dragging the party down in the process. Today's debate is a perfect example....Lieberman doesn't even have a dog in the fight in Iowa...he had one purpose and one purpose only and that was to try to damage Dean so as to bring up his own numbers in NH. He needs to go home. Who cares who Lieberman endorses. I'd run like hell from a Lieberman endorsement --- unless I was a Republican.

[NV1962]

13. Huh?

I have no idea what you base this inferred conclusion on: Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman have been the innocent victims of Dean's attacks

The original post states simply that Clark's campaign hasn't joined the "let's cream Dean team." If at all, Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman have "victimized" themselves - they went on that tack.

But I agree that "going negative" is silly - for two reasons: because it can't get more negative than the one they're running against: B*

And secondly, because going negative is tested and proven to run voters away from the ballot box - a most suicidal path for any of the Dem contenders.

[MoonRiver]

14. For whatever reasons, Clark has kept his hands clean.

Lieberman was incredibly obnoxious today, I agree. Maybe if Clark had them all pounding on him he would return the favor, as is Dean. But I also think Dean has baited many of them. He's not the only anti-war candidate, but he's the only one to rub IRW in the noses of Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Edwards. I notice that Kucinich has been very reserved about confronting other candidates on Iraq. Sharpton and CMB have been a little more direct, but not much. Clark has been discreet too. Those Dean has attacked are fighting back with a gusto.

[hellhathnofury]

19. Welcome to DU.

:)

[newyawker99]

34. Hi eaprez!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[deminflorida]

11. One word....

Clinton...

He knows exactly which direction to point each and every one of them....

[knight_of_the_star]

12. Rather a lot

Clark hasn't alienated everyone else's people the way Dean looks like he is on the fast track to completing.

[in_cog_ni_to]

16. That is exactly right

and a perfect example of why a candidate should take the high road in a campaign when it comes to bashing fellow candidates.

Go Wes!

[dave29]

17. It's just too bad

he couldn't earn that support without someone else dropping out.

;)

[MoonRiver]

18. That's a silly statement.

If Clark gets the support rather than Dean I'd say he "earned" it. :D

[dave29]

21. well that's true

but not in the straight up sense - rather a "well, he'll do" sense. We are talking about Dem primary voters here, the folks that pay attention, and are passionate about their candidates. Clark may see some support from those that drop out - but so will Dean. And Dean already has some pretty solid support.

I don't think it will be a flock to Clark scenario as some here seem to be suggesting. Just my two cents. Dean is pretty high on the number two lists of many of the polls I've seen.

[hellhathnofury]

20. 5-10%

The others are going down in flames and I don't think they all will endorse Clark. That's probably the extent of the anybody but Dean group that isn't already with Clark.

[Renew Deal]

22. If they are ABD and they don't endorse Clark

what will they do? They could do nothing. I think it is more likely there will be some endorsements. I also have to wonder who Dennis is going to endorse. Dean has really been nasty to him.

[hellhathnofury]

25. I can see Kerry and Joe endorsing Clark.

For some reason I don't see Gephardt doing it, he might be too smart and just wait till we have a nominee. I don't think DK will make any until we have a nominee (I worry about him running as a 3rd).

Might be less than my first estimate say 2-8%.

[curse10]

24. a bunch

if it comes down to Kerry, Clark, and Dean we'll have to see who outlasts eachother. Kerry supporters will go with Clark and I think Clark supporters will likely go with Kerry.

[Auntie Bush]

26. I can't imagine how Kerry

or Gephardt's supporters could go for Dean. I think everyone but possibly K. people will go for Wes!

[auburnblu]

27. Dean will benefit the longer everyone stays in

Dean would probably get a little boost if say Dennis K or Sharpton leave the race, but I don't think they will even when they pretty much run out of cash. Lieberman will probably leave after the SC vote and I would imagine Dean's not getting much of his vote. I don't think Edwards and Braun can stay in too long. Dean could probably get some of their support. The key is going to be with Kerry and Gephardt, its going to be interesting to see how long either of them sticks around if Clark becomes the Dean alternative. I would imagine they both would endorse Clark over Dean based on the way the campaign has gone so far.

[dave29]

31. I would not be surprised to see CMB

endorse Dean. That's just my opinion, but they seem to be on very good terms - and I've seen her defend him more than once.

That would be no small endorsement.

[JVS]

28. I don't see why Kerry or Gephardt would leave the race

They are doing as well as Clark and their political lives are at stake.

[Toucano]

30. If you define "doing as well"

As "polling as well", I'll agree. But they didn't have spectacular fundraising efforts.

Clark was within 4 million of Gephardt (or something like that) after the last quarter, and that's another indication of support.

[tedoll78]

29. If the recent CNN/Time polls is of any indication..

not enough. The spread was 14%, although I don't recall the MOE or undecideds.

[DFLforever]

32. If Dean wins a couple of races right off the bat, he'll be the one picking

up the votes, not someone who has yet to win an election anywhere at any time. If the results are negative for Dean or mixed then either Kerry or Gephardt or both could still be in the race...

In the offline and real world I have seldom met supporters of any of our candidates who were as adamant or inflexible as some are here.

[incapsulated]

33. Don't underestimate

Lieberman and Sharpton's votes. If they back Clark that can add up quickly. Everything depends on when people drop out.

Dean doesn't have such an enormous lead everywhere across the nation to wave off even a 5 to 10 percent increase for Clark. A lot of the support for all the candidates is soft (even in NH) or based on little more than name recognition, and I wouldn't be counting my chickens just yet.

[CMT]

35. well if the NH numbers are any indication

Dean is the second choice of Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman supporters, so it is hard to say. Time will tell.

[Jack_Dawson]

36. Huuuuuuuuuuuge Support

You think all those Dean-bashing candidates are suddenly going to throw their support to him? Methinks not. Clark is playing it smart, flying under the radar - and will pick up the majority of those followers I'm sure.