What are the chances of surprising Dennis wins?

[Powerlock]

I don't know if I am being overly optimistic, but what are the chances Dennis will defeat the odds and win some states in the next 3 months?

I ask because I remember the moveon primary. No one thought Dennis would do as well as he did, yet he surprised everyone.

I'm hoping Dennis has a base out there that is very quiet, and will repeat what happened with moveon. Am I being overly optimistic?

[Clark4VotingRights]

1. Very hard to say because I don't trust the propaganda polls.

But I sure know a lot of people who support him.
And I'd be thrilled if he won.
He's a great man, a great congressman.

[JohnKleeb]

2. I say Iowa will suprise people

We may not win but I think second or third could be ours. He has been doing great as of late.

[Desertrose]

3. I think they are much higher than anyone outside expects

Dennis has a base that is not necessarily on the net or electronically linked.

The cool thing is Dennis supporters are linked at the heart and we are more mighty than anyone suspects.

He did well in the debate today...people ARE hearing his message...it is getting out....all I can say is DK supporters, take heart!

Oh yeah, wanted to say earlier... :hi: welcome to DU Powerlock

Peace
DR

[MidwestMomma]

15. I like that phrase..linked at the heart

And think you guys are mighty. Dennis did very well in the debate today and I'm glad you guys are feeling optimistic. But that's what I kind of expect from DK supporters. It's really hard to get you guys down...I really admire you for that. Good luck in Iowa...I'll be watching the returns down here in Kansas. :hi:

[blm]

4. I think he'll do better than the press thinks.

I think there are a few surprises ahead. Dennis is one of them.

[JohnKleeb]

5. you see that poll with the MOE included hes in second place

:)
I think Iowa is gonna be a shocker. We got new people after the debate tonight too :).

[wunnerfulrobin]

11. he'll never hit third

in any state. "dept. of peace"? come on! Clark has already dropped the "rest" to non-event status. Heck, even one of Gepharts own said he bordered on socialist. Sorry to be brutal.....

[diamondsoul]

27. "Clark has already dropped the "rest" to non-event status."

Cute, but not a brilliant means of convincing me to support your man. Clark has done no such thing, and this comes from someone who has met him, admires his past work, and actually looked forward to his being in the race.

He's been a steady disappointment to me, and it saddens me to say that at all.

[ringmastery]

6. none

He just doesn't have the resume.

Few candidates jump from a congressman to the president. Why doesn't he run for the Ohio senate in 04 against Voinovich first?

[Desertrose]

7. why are we limited by the past....

....just because it happens rarely, doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.....

why would he run for Ohio senate - he's running for prez!

Peace
DR

[Gretchen]

12. only two Senator have ever won the Presidency

Kennedy and I think Warren G. Harding was the other.

Therefore it seems as though your suggestion is irrelevant.

Perhaps being Gov. of Ohio or a VP would be a better suggestion.


Regardless, I think Dennis has experience on a local level, (mayor of Cleveland), state level, (Ohio Senate), and federal level(4-time Congressman), that would make him a great president. Let's not forget that he is the chair of the house's largest caucus.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

16. wow, DK has experience on EVERY level of government

from local, state, to federal - *very* good point.

[Powerlock]

8. It's good to hear I'm not alone

I hope Dennis will be able to do it despite what the media is saying. He's what this country needs.

[Nederland]

9. Million-to-One

That's the odds of DK winning any states anywhere.

[revcarol]

10. I'll take those odds. I bet $1.00.

And please leave your full name and address with my secretary. I'm too busy campaigning for Dennis to bother.

[Dems Will Win]

14. Sorry but the rules are 15% at least or you get Zero delegates

Any votes won by the wonderful DK will be divided up by Dean and the other leaders unless he can crack 15% through a miracle in one of the primaries. So far DK has 2 Super-Delegates--and one of those is him!

If he doesn't win over 15% in a vote, 2 delegates will be his final total out of 4,000 plus delegates. I know some top people in the DK campaign and they were talking that DK is planning to stop the campaign after March 2nd in New York if things don't pick up before then (so he can make a real run for the House again I guess).

Too bad about this campaign, it is just turning out to be an embarassment if it keeps going like this. I hope he does better but I don't see him cracking 15 anywhere so far...

NEED A BUSHECTOMY? CALL DR. DEAN!

[Nadienne]

18. You know some top people in the Kucinich campaign?

And they are saying that DK is planning to stop the campaign after March 2nd...?

I hear a different story from DK himself...

[Desertrose]

20. me too, Nadienne- no way DK will quit...

not what I hear either...DK won't be quitting...why would he...he's just getting started.

Running second ahead of Kerry in Iowa QC poll

http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story_id=1022468

Peace
DR

[diamondsoul]

26. I'd like a name from this one.

Dennis has NO intention of quitting. I don't know who they've been speaking to, if anyone, but it certainly hasn't been Dennis, Dot Maver, or the campaign strategists. It also hasn't been the campaign liasons.

If anyone has any doubt planted by this person's nonsense, answer me this, why would they start taking in new interns if they were planning to close up shop anyway? It'd be rather senseless to spend money on interns, advertising and air time if he planned to drop out, now, wouldn't it?!

[diamondsoul]

25. Really, now?

Funny, because I also know some top people in the Kucinich campaign, and I'm sure as hell not hearing anything about quitting. As a matter of fact, the word from the man himself (Dennis) is he wants to make absolutely certain he's on the Primary ballot in every single State in the Union.

Oh, and BTW, this campaign is in NO WAY any sort of "embarrassment", win lose or draw. He's run clean, hard and absolutely with a clear conscience. Show me one candidate besides Bush who is free and clear of debt, yet still moving up in the field...and he IS moving up in the field, make NO mistake about that.

My sole concern, as a member of Kucinich's campaign field staff, is whether Thom Harkin will show the balls he's been known for and endorse Dennis, or will he play it safe. Gore broke my heart by endorsing Dean after the incredible speech he gave just a few weeks ago. Let's hope Harkin has enough sense to stick to his principles.

[diamondsoul]

24. Seconded from this quarter!

But we'll have the fun of watching the stuttering disbelief when he gets the nomination.:evilgrin:

I'm excited....just got offered the chance to speak as Dennis' representative at the local Democratic Club's monthly meeting! WOOHOO!

[Dookus]

13. He may do

a little better than expected, but he seems to be hovering at about 2% in all the polls. I really don't see how he can win ANY state that way.

That being said, I hope he does well. I like him.

[OhioStateProgressive]

22. actually a new CNN poll has him a 5%

I am certain Dennis will win the Ohio Primary

who knows about the rest, the hope is to do as well as we can, right?:)

[maxr4clark]

23. If he doesn't win Ohio

...he won't win anywhere. I hope he gets more votes than Lieberman in at least some states, but I'm not holding my breath.

[maha]

17. Zero.

[JNelson6563]

19. slim to none

and I'm being liberal. :-)

[redqueen]

21. He's done it before

Who cares if you're overly optimistic? It's the primaries, so it's the time for voting your heart -- voting your conscience. The time to settle for the lesser evil comes later. (That is, if you're still playing that game -- many aren't, based on the amount of people that don't even bother to take their opportunity to pick the better liar every 4 years.)

I agree with you... I think the results will be surprising to those that worship at the altar of polls 'n' money. :)

[LWolf]

28. The nomination is wide open.

It's up for grabs. No votes have been cast.

We're campaigning. We're working to get the message out. I believe the results will suprise some people.

Whether or not he gets the nomination, he will get enough support, that more people will hear about the reason why we're working for him--his vision for America. As far as I'm concerned, it's a win/win scenario.

[Alex146]

29. Very slim...

maybe his home state? Nothing is impossible, Dean Clark Kerry Gep and Edwards could all drop dead...

[Red_Storm]

30. It Ain't Over Till.................

DK is going to hang in there till the end, at least I hope he does, his message is too important......

[Clark Can WIN]

31. I don't want to rain on anybody's parade, I admire Kucinich

but it just didn't catch fire for him this time. I just think this was the wrong election for him.

[SeveneightyWhoa]

32. Dennis is a great guy, but..

..he has no chance. I can't donate (being a Canadian and all), but I'll purchase his book just to say 'thank you' for putting up a valiant effort when all the odds were against him from the start.

Maybe someone like Dennis will be elected, when the plutocratic system collapses under its own weight sometime in the next few decades.

[Red_Storm]

56. It's a wonderful book.........

very thought provoking and inspiring, just like DK......

[diamondsoul]

68. Just a note for non-American supporters-

You can't donate directly, however you CAN go to the supporter merchandise sites, such as searching the Cafe Press shops, going to "The Kooch" site and the friendsofkucinich site to purchase Kucinich goods. Most of the people owning those sites funnel proceeds to the campaign as personal donations which doesn't break the campaign finance regulations.

[Lone Pawn]

33. I'd say the odds are....zero.

eom

[revcarol]

34. He could sweep my state, NM.

Heavy influx of registrations of former Greens.

Not wanting same-o, same-o.Recognize a good man with good programs when they see one.

12% of registered voters here WERE Greens, now Democrats because of DK!!

WOW- that pot's boiling, will overflow Feb. 3.

[goodhue]

35. better than most think

Third place or better in Iowa should set up some possible victories. Remember when Jerry Brown won Maine?
Other than Ohio, I think DK's most likely win will be Hawaii. Really, I do. Also New Mexico, Wisconsin, Oregon, California, Minnesota to name a few are states in which DK can win, place or show.

[Tinoire]

36. Very good

Because Dennis has a huge grass-roots net-work.

Because the little people who never bothered voting for the uninspiring establishment candidates are really eager to vote for someone who has a vision to really change things in a way that will immediately benefit the normal little people- you know, the ones who've heard Dennis loud and clear

Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free1,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.

And ETERNAL thanks to the Greens who have been instrumental in this effort by walking door-to-door in places for few, save the bravest populists Leftists, dare to go. Eternal thanks to them for having thought die-hard Democrat Leftists how to wake people up. We'll take your 2000 head-start of 2.9% and raise you many times more, with your help!

[Lydia Leftcoast]

37. I just came from the first caucus organizing meeting

for my Congressional district.

We learned that my district already has 1300 people signed up as willing to work for Dennis. (This evening was an initial meeting for people willing to be precinct organizers, so it attracted maybe 30 or 40 on a subzero evening.) The trick will be to get the 1300 and as many of their friends as possible to the Minnesota caucuses.

[Hippo_Tron]

38. Dennis is not unelectable, he just probably won't win the nomination...

Again, as far as I'm concerned any candidate can be electable depending on what Bush does in the next year. Kucinich simply doesn't have enough money or support to win the nomination.

[picus9]

63. Not unelectable - In what country?

[tinanator]

65. USA for one

And a whole series of New World nations have taken dramatic steps towards real democracy with Lula and Chavez and others most likely less known. What the US government's stand towards/against democratic self rule represents is the bipartisan lust for power that fundamentally corrupts and destroys our own democratic hopes and dreams. A great deal of preconceptions are fed into the minds of supposedly politically active people, and as a result, they have no sense of the broad tableau, just the same old lying rationalizations they have been conditioned with, preventing them from thinking logically or factually.

[picus9]

66. Assuming your theory is correct...

How is he electable in the US?

[tinanator]

67. same as the others

only without the ballot box stuffing and voter removal lists.

[White Mountain]

39. Am I being overly optimistic?

Yes.

[DemBones DemBones]

40. It's interesting how little faith many have in the voters.

I think Dennis will surprise some people, thanks to the voters who haven't bought into the "Dean is unstoppable" meme or the "Kucinich is unelectable" meme. Both memes are being brought to you by the corporate-controlled shills in the media, suggesting these are the thoughts the GOP wants us to have. I'm not buying any of it, preferring to watch the race play out for myself. Remember that they also repeat the "Bush will beat any Democrat" meme. If you don't believe that last one, why believe the other two?



THE DARK HORSE COMETH. . . DENNIS J. KUCINICH 2004

[ThirdWheelLegend]

41. right on DB

kick for Kucinich!

Polls and money do not a good candidate make. Being the best on issues, integrity and understanding the common person are a bit more important.


TWL

[rogerhall]

44. I like Dennis, but ...

there is no way he could beat W in Arkansas.

Are Arkansans shallow? Yup. My parents are two of 'em. They don't 'have time' for determining the best positions on issues. Heck, they don't even know what all the issues are!

But they have voted with the majority of Arkansans in the last seven elections - including Bush in 2000.

I know! But they are my parents. What can I do? Don't even get me started on my cousins ...

We talked about it. They like Clark, they like Edwards, they might be able to like Dean - but they like Bush too. They still have a hard time believing that there is no African uranium in Iraq. They believe Bush every time he says we are fighting 'terrists' in Iraq. (I pointed out that if we were invaded, that definition would make us 'terrists' for fighting back ... but they don't ever believe the military commanders on CNN who say it's the locals.)

It drives me nuts! But it also focuses me on supporting 'electable' candidates.

I would love to see Dennis as a Cabinet member, etc. Anything high level. But if you think Dennis is going to win even the nomination, then you are overestimating our fellow citizens, I'm afraid. You are certainly overestimating the rest of my family!

[Gore1FL]

42. I don;t know how likely

but if he comes in third or better in IA and then third or better in NH, he may have a chance of hanging on through the rust belt primaries, where, I would suspect he would have enough momentum to make a difference.

It is a longshot, and I would not bank on it, but 3rd in IA and NH are a must for such a scenario to take place.

[Forkboy]

43. I dont know...I'm going to vote for him and find out though

:)

[mouse7]

45. None. DK's choice record kills him as protest candidate

DK's voting record on choice issues killed DKs chances as a protest candidate coming out of the door. Too many on the left of the party are "purists" on the choice issue and DK can't ruin an effect protest campaign with most of the left wing of the party discounting his candidacy from the start.

[Tinoire]

59. Totally disagree. What many on the left are purists about is war

There aren't that many purists on the choice issue as you think. We all know it's a wedge issue that has been used to allow the worst sort of slimy people to advance in the Democratic Party. It takes a lot more to be a Leftist than to simply be pro-choice and pro-Civil Unions.

For the majority on the Left, the real Left- not this BS that we've been seeing on this board lately, war-mongering is absolutely non-negotiable.

Certain candidates can spin it all they want but there is only one, with a proven track record, whot CLEARLY stands out above the rest. I think the Centrists, who think they're part of the Left, are going to be extrememely surprised on this one.

One thing people on the Left are is pertty bright and we're not falling for all the back-peddling that some of the war-mongerers and war-enablers are doing right now.

Pretty position papers are all very nice but they don't mean squat. Anyone can commission a pretty paper.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

69. wrong

The truth is that many know DK is as honest as they come. He has a record of integrity and honesty. So when he takes a personal journey and comes to the CORRECT decision on choice, people know they can trust him.

http://www.ipetitions.com/campaigns/feminists_4_kucinich/

Such as the group of women above.

TWL

[TheWebHead]

46. none

and if he were to somehow win any state, it would only damage the Democratic party. He's best-served staying in the House to counter far-right Republicans who would be just as unelectable were they to run for President.

[tinanator]

47. excellent

what are the chances even a minority of posters here know what they are talking about?

[Stuckinthebush]

48. Excellent

The posters at DU, for the most part, are very well informed.

I'd say DK has no chance. That is not a statement of my like or dislike of DK, it is reality. He is polling poorly, and his message is getting squashed by the media focusing on the front runners. The primaries start within two weeks. Once they start, any candidate that does not win, place or show in the NH, SC or Iowa are probably history. The media just will not cover the others.

DK has a wonderful message and is the best progressive out there. It is a shame that his hunt for the nomination is doomed.

[DemDogs]

49. Dennis is an important voice, but he can't win

Maybe he is ahead of his time. Maybe he is just out of step. His point of view is important, and I hope he stays in, but I don't expect him to win, except perhaps in isolated precincts.

[tinanator]

52. very conservative and riddled with cable news perspectives

if that is what you mean by informed, I agree. I would call it misinformed and naively arrogant. Presuming to speak for America as a whole based upon crooked polling and slanted news reports? Whats the word?

[Stuckinthebush]

54. You don't think that DUers are more informed..

about what is happening in DC, about who the candidates are, about the background of policies and politics of this administration, about the potential policies of all of the candidates.

You don't think that this group of people is more informed than my neighbor or your neighbor, or the woman down the street?

I do.

[tinanator]

58. I dont

I have as much faith in any man on the street to call a lie a lie, maybe more than a self selected yuppie subgroup that worries more about cable news coverage and the actions of traitors to democracy like James Carville and his friends, than the state of daily life for their fellow Americans. There is a huge disconnect there, and a paucity of factual, relevant information. A LARGE segment of posters here are very conservative, not even including the regular contributors from the other side. So much so, that proper liberal progressive points are considered out of the mainstream. Thats brain washing at its best.

[Stuckinthebush]

60. OK

I disagree.

[tinanator]

53. more polling based conclusions?

When not a vote has been counted? Thats living in an artifice, and useless for analysis.

[Stuckinthebush]

55. Polling is rather reliable

Just check the last few elections and compare the results to the polls.

Sure, there is such a thing as margin of error, but taking that into account, reputable polling companies have been doing a pretty damn good job at quantifying public opinion.

If you have 15 polls, and they all show DK at the bottom, then you can be pretty sure that DK is at the bottom. He is not going to miraculously get 50% of the vote on election day. This is wishful thinking. Again, I am saying this as a realist, not a DK basher. The reality is that his campaign is history. Now, I do agree that he has very, very important things to say, and for that he needs to stick around. However, he is not going to win.

[tinanator]

57. faith based political science?

Ive seen upwards of 15 strictly controlled polls that placed Kucinich a LOOOOONG way from the bottom, casting into doubt the "mainstream" corporate powered polls that "news" networks commission to substitute for information formerly known as news. I think you have to account for the blatant shifts in the process like dropping of exit polling during elections, loss of independant control of the presidential debates, bloodthirsty electoral corruption that runs the gamut from Database Technologies to BBV scams, and step back to form an opinion about "polls" in general. Sorry, but I find your faith/opinion lacking in comprehension.

[Stuckinthebush]

61. I'd love to see those polls

Links?

As for polling, the major polling firms have a great deal to lose if they provide results based on faulty methodology to their clients. Random sampling is hard as hell with polling, but the companies providing these services to the networks work their butts off to make sure their methodology is the best. You don't think that their clients look at actual results to compare to polling results? Don't you think that if they two were wildly off that the networks or other clients would fire their polling companies? They would.

Let's look at DKs numbers over time from some of the big firms:

Harris interactive for CNN (6 instances from 2/03 to 1/04) 2%, 2%, 3%, 3%, 2%, 5%

TNS Intersearch for ABC/Wash Post (5 instances from 9/03 to 12/03)2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%

Princeton Research for Newsweek (9 instances from 7/03 to 12/03)2%, 2%, 2%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 2%, 2%, 1%

Gallup for CNN/USA Today (6 instances from 10/03 to 12/03) 1%, 3%, 3%, 2%, 1%, 2%

Qunnipiac University (5 instances from 6/03 to 12/03) 1%, 2%, 2%, 3%, 2%

Zogby (6 instances from 1/03 to 11/03) 1%, 2%, 1%, 1%, 1%, 2%


These are national numbers, not individual states. I have seen similar numbers for NH, Iowa and SC for DK. The point I am making is that there is not some kind of conspiracy against DK by the polling firms to make sure he is polling at the bottom. That being said, when you have firm after firm after firm showing him at the bottom consistently, then you can bet the farm that he will not win the nomination.

I am not debating that the press has no influence in shaping voter opinion. I think that is clearly happening. I am not debating whether or not the debates are rigged against the bottom pollers. That is clearly happening. I am saying that when the major pollsters all show DK at the bottom, then he is at the bottom - regardless of why.

[tinanator]

62. you dont remember Move On?

that was a fairly stringent online polling with results that spoke well for Kucinich. Im not interested in corporate disinfo, and I wont be following their numbers.

[DemDogs]

50. Have to agree here

There is as much information as misinformation here. It mirrors the electorate and the media.

[Stuckinthebush]

51. True

But DUers are individuals who are more informed about candidates and their policies, histories, and politics.

[Padraig18]

64. Please note: Since this asks for an *opinion* only, my *opinion* is...

....that his chances are slim and non-existent.