The Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 24 – Obama 313-225

[phrigndumass]

Four new polls were released yesterday:
New Mexico - Obama 47, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 6/19, +/- 4.5)
Utah - Obama 33, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 6/19, +/- 4.5)
Alaska - Obama 42, McCain 44, BARR 3 (Global Strategy, 6/10)
Pennsylvania - Obama 46, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 6/22, +/- 4.5)

Pennsylvania was polled by Quinnipiac University last week and showed Obama leading there by 12 (52-40) with 8% undecided (margin of error +/- 2.5). Rasmussen's poll shows Obama leading by only 4 (46-42) with 12% undecided (margin of error +/- 4.5). Which poll would you trust more? IMO, Rasmussen is becoming infamous for allowing poll participants to not answer the questions.

With the Rasmussen result, Pennsylvania moves from the Solid Obama column to within the margin of error today, making Pennsylvania a potential for McCain as well as Obama. Thus, my electoral vote projection for Obama drops 18 today to 313.


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Sources:
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Electoral-Vote.com
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RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
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[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning!

Isn't Quinnipiac the more reliable poll? If so, then why do you have to move Penn to MOE? or am I totally off.. You know me :)

[phrigndumass]

3. Quinnipiac's poll is more reliable, but Rasmussen's poll is more recent

You're right! Quinnipiac's poll has fewer undecideds and a smaller margin of error. I would trust Quinnipiac's poll more. But Rasmussen's poll was taken on June 22, while Quinnipiac's poll was taken on June 16. Public opinion can change a lot in one week.

:donut: Good morning, f4m3s! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Thanks :)

I might be getting the hang of this (with your help). My brother went to Quinnipiac, by the way. He pretends he is a Repub to make my dad happy.

Have a great day, phrigndumass! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. The things we do to please our parents, LOL

Hope you have a great day as well, f4m3s!

[jefferson_dem]

2. Looking good.

Thanks! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Wasn't that a famous Freddie Prinze line? :)

Looookinnngggg Gooood!

Good morning, jefferson_dem! :hi:

[mod mom]

6. As good as these numbers look I was glad to hear that the Obama campaign is taking

my home state of Ohio very serious with an unprecedented effort in not only new voter registration but an extensive GOTV network that will target every area of the state.

As always, Phrigndumass, thanks for your daily offering. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. That's a very wise move!

We can broaden the map, but it's important to cover the bases. Regardless of where else we might win, Ohio should be a must win state. Let's hope for more voters AND shorter lines this time around in Ohio!

:hi:

[mod mom]

9. It's a must win for McCain but Obama can win w/o it. That said, the army of staffers

that has descended on Cols and soon to be scattered around the entire state says Obama is definitely going for the win!

We have a fair Democrat now as SOS and the ODP has a Director of Election Protection. I'm optimistic (except about what the cornered GOP would be willing to do to retain control-ie Iran)

[phrigndumass]

10. Makes sense. There should be more voting machines ...

(in working order) per precinct now that Blackwell isn't SOS there.

Have a good day, mod mom! :hi:

[grantcart]

11. wasn't there a new PPP pole on Michigan

[phrigndumass]

12. y-y-y-yes, now I s-s-s-see the new p-p-p-poll for M-m-m-michig-g-gan :)

It must have been r-r-r-released this morning after I p-p-p-posted.

:hide:

Th-th-th-that's all folks! :7

[phrigndumass]

13. Indiana poll (SUSA) shows Obama leading by one now

Obama gains 10 points on McCain in three weeks.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d62471d9-b9f8-4274-8312-16c1006a5764

[helderheid]

14. to the greatest with you!

[phrigndumass]

15. You earned a cheeseburger! :)

:7 :hi:

[helderheid]

16. NOM NOM NOM NOM!

[grantcart]

17. this shameless pander is

very effective lol

[Willo]

18. I still have my eye on that line from LA to NC

The light color means weak support, correct?
Arizona is light red. :evilgrin:

[grantcart]

19. Does Obama Really Have a Double-Digit Lead? - Newsweek

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/25/does-obama-really-have-a-double-digit-lead.aspx


Of course, Team McCain is more concerned with psychology than mathematics. As the Politico puts it, they're "trying to ease anxieties and calm fears among party elites and activists that Obama is developing a lead so significant that it can't be overcome." But even McCain's keepers admit that if the L.A. Times party identification gap is "recalculated" to "ten (29% GOP / 39% Dem), the ballot would be 40% McCain – 47% Obama." That's a more conservative--and, according to the RealClear Politics 6.9-percent polling average, a more consensus--estimate of Obama's lead. But it's still still seven points--which, according to the sophisticated projection engine over at FiveThirtyEight.com, would be enough to propel Obama to a 344-194 electoral college win on Nov. 4.