My Political Science Professor's Primary Predictions

[aldian159]

My professor is a moderate Democrat from Texas, very much in the mold of an LBJ. He is undecided as of now. He sent me an e-mail just now that I though was very intresting, so I'm gonna post it here in its complete form. Comments are welcome:

The campaign is not over. Howard Dean will either lose Iowa (14 days away) to Gephardt or win it by a miniscule margin. He will win New Hampshire (22 days away) but will win by a much smaller amount than expected. And remember, John McCain won New Hampshire by a lot. Fat lot of good it did him.
Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Carolina (29 days away). I know Dean is leading in Arizona and Oklahoma. Most people thought South Carolina would be the most important race in that crowd. Right now, the overall leader there is Jonathon Edwards. Second is Al Sharpton. In other words, South Carolina is a moot state now. After this race is when people are going to start dropping out. Say goodbye to Kucinich, Mosley-Braun, Lieberman, and big Al.
That leaves Dean, Kerry, Clark, Edwards, and Gephardt.
Between Feb. 7th and Feb. 27th, eight states and the District of Columbia hold primaries. These are important. In 2000, John McCain's campaign lost it's soul in Michigan. They saw the state as a must-win, so they blew all their resources there, much like Gephardt's likely to do in Iowa. McCain carried Michigan on Feb. 7th, but it knocked him out of the race. I know Dean is leading in Wisconsin, but Wisconsin's so liberal it's basically Dean's base outside of Vermont. DC is moot because of the large black population that will pander to Sharpton, if he‘s still in.
So that leaves Washington, Maine, Tennessee, Virginia, Idaho, and Utah. The last two are what get called "vulture pickups" because only one guy's going to compete for them, and I doubt it will be Dean, as Utah is far too conservative and Idaho is far too libertarian. I think it will be Kerry who wins those two states. I also think Dean will win Maine and Washington.
I see Gephardt and Edwards fading before Super Tuesday (March 2nd) and dropping out. After Super Tuesday, Clark will be gone as well. Super Tuesday is everything it's cracked up to be. 12 states hold their primaries. Of these, four are in New England, but of those four, three are the home states for candidates. Kerry will win Massachusetts, Dean will win Vermont, and if Lieberman's still around, he'll pick up Connecticut. If Kerry has enough momentum, he will carry Rhode Island.
I also see Kerry winning New York; I can't see New Yorkers siding with Dean. I will give California to Dean, though; too many people in the San Francisco area who are Dean's kind of liberals. Also going to Dean will be Hawaii and Minnesota. However, I think Ohio, Maryland, and Georgia will be very iffy. AFSCME might tilt Maryland to Dean, but I doubt Georgia will go for him despite the large gun lobby there. Ohio's up for grabs.
After Super Tuesday, it's going to be Dean and Kerry. Kerry will be much stronger than he is right now. From March 2nd to the convention, there are 18 states holding primaries (plus Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico). Howard Dean and John Kerry are going to engage in the biggest brawl you can imagine before the convention, assuming one or the other hasn't dropped out (safe to say).
This isn't going to be a game where everyone goes home after New Hampshire. It's going to be a long, drawn-out campaign. Gore's campaign against Bradley in 2000 was a quick and sharp action because the party lined-up behind Gore. Bush had to fight to beat McCain, but not that hard, and he was helped by some mistakes McCain made (something I see Dean doing more of). Its gonna be fun.

[La_Serpiente]

1. even if the prof is wrong

the full primary season hasn't even started yet. Anything could happen within the next couple of weeks.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. For one thing

No matter what you think of him as a person or a candidate, I think you are predicting too many good things for Kerry in the Primaries, which skews the read you have given. It's fun guessing though.

[ryharrin]

3. He may be a political science professor,

and know a lot of history and such that I don't, but I don't buy this one bit. He is completely ignoring the fact that Kerry has been imploding for months now, and is down to 12% in the previously "must win" state of NH and even lower everywhere else.

He also buys into the Dean is too liberal to win anywhere outside of crazy liberal states idea. Saying that Dean doesn't have much of a chance in Idaho and Utah ignore his large fundraising and grassroots advantage over Kerry. Also, Dean has a pretty large lead in Mass., so I don't know why he gave that to Kerry outright.
He dismisses Clark way too much.

I see Clark as the only candidate hwo has differentiated himself from Dean in any positive manner (besides Edwards to a small extent). If Clark doesn't pick up any momentum, Dean will put Kerry away easily if he doesn't start giving people reasons to vote for him, instead of just calling Dean a liar constantly.

[aldian159]

4. I gotta talk to him about clark

he really does dismiss him a little too much.

Thanks for the info, i totally missed that.

[Kathleen04]

17. February 3rd states..

I believe Clark is leading in Oklahoma (your prof. said it was Dean).

The main thing I disagree with your professor about is that he breezed past the February 3rd states. Which ones does he forsee Kerry winning? After losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, how is he going to get his organization together for the Feb. 3rds? According to American Research Group polls..Kerry is at 6% in SC, 2% in OK, 2% in AZ.

That leaves New Mexico, Delaware (last poll showed Lieberman leading), North Dakota, and Missouri (which should go to Gephardt).

Without any momentum coming from wins in either Iowa or New Hampshire, how is he going to propell himself to the top of the field in these critical states that will shape the rest of the race?

[ryharrin]

18. There have been polls recently that

show both of them leading, so there's definitely no clear frontrunner in Oklahoma yet. Though I'd say it probably leans more towards Clark, if only because of geography.

I agree completely that Kerry doesn't seem to have much of a foothold on Feb 3rd. I don't know where his momentum is supposed to come from.

[polpilot]

30. Your analogy is more accurate than profs. His fumblings do not seem

consistent with one who has been watching closely. Clark, especially, shouldn't be dismissed so casually. Those medals dangling are meaningful to the 'terror alert' group.

Dean '04...

[Yupster]

5. I think he predicts

more people remaining in the race and winning primaries than I do.

I expect it to get down to 2-3 first tier candidates much quicker than he does, but that's why they hold elections.

[napi21]

7. Disagree too

I think he's giving too much to Kerrey too. Remember, he's had to put up $6MM of his own money to keep on going right now.

I agree the primary will go on to super Tuesday, but I think it's going to be over then.

[Rowdyboy]

6. Hey, he's obviously a serious thinker

I disagree with his conclusions, but I welcome his imput. Keep in touch with him and keep us informed.

I enjoyed his analysis but, boy, does he shortchange Clark...

[jeter]

8. You're prof is so wrong...

How could Dean and Kerry survive New Hampshire?

Kerry is also trailing Dean in Massacusettes.

Yes, McCain won big in New Hampshire, but he staked his entire campaign on that election. That would probably explain Michigan. Hoping for a repeat in fortunes.

Dean, by contrast, has a national campaign. Which is exactly what the other candidates DON'T have.

So to use the McCain/Bush comparison again. In a way, Dean is Bush (in terms of national organization and money).

Again, if Kerry loses New Hampshire he is done. How could he win? How could he spin losing there?

Clinton and Bush lost it, sure. But they were from the south.

I don't see New Hampshire breaking any other candidates. But it will break Kerry or Dean. One has to win. The loser is out.

[flaminbats]

9. maybe your political science professor should retire.

I have no love for Lieberman or Gephardt, but these are the two alternatives to Dean who have the most name recognition. Clark has a better shot than does Kerry or Edwards of picking up southern and western primaries that Dean may lose.

To say that the choice will boil down to Kerry or Dean reflects ignorance of the regional and demographic differences in the Democratic primaries. A contest, like the one between McCain and Shrub..may occur in the repuke primaries, but the Democratic Primaries are a whole nother ballgame!

One final note, my best professor was Charles Bullock at UGA. And no matter how much you tried, you could never tell whether he was moderate, liberal, or conservative. All he discussed was the "science" of politics! And the best political analysts know how to separate their personal political views from political reality.

[tedoll78]

10. Hmm..

I think Dean will knock-out Gep in Iowa.
I think he'll knock-out Kerry in New Hampshire.
The following week, he'll get a media-driven bounce in each state poll nationwide, ranging anywhere from 5 to maybe 15%.
I think the bounce will allow him to pull a close victory out over Clark and Edwards in South Carolina, who will split The "Look - he's a Southerner!" Vote. Lieberman will also pull some of the more conservative vote there.

One big question mark I have is regarding the theory that Dean is bringing new people into the party. If this is indeed fact, it might all be over very early. If Iowa is flooded/deluged/overrun with Dean voters coming out of the woodwork, it could be all over by February 3rd. That's one reason I'm going to be watching Iowa very, very, very closely. However - if there is no surge in turnout, Dean could fail the expectations game and deflate. Any way it turns-out, it should be interesting..

I wouldn't mind it being over on February 3rd. Why?
1) It'd allow us to get unified more quickly.
2) All of the candidates could then train their guns on Bush.
3) Dean could then camp-out in three or four midwestern states for a month or so. Imagine if the people of Ohio got to see him on a regular basis. Him travelling from small town to small town, listening to the concerns of ordinary Ohioans. Those 20 electoral votes sure do sound yummy..

[arcos]

11. Who is Jonathon Edwards?

Is he a new presidential candidate only your professor knows?

[aldian159]

13. He might have been thinking of

that preacher in the 1740's in colonial America with the same name.

Or, perhaps, my professor can't type, so that negates everything he has to say, right?

[ryharrin]

14. Maybe he's thinking of John Edward

the tv psychic?

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[arcos]

12. Dean could win both MA and CT... n/t

[NWHarkness]

15. It's an interesting scenario

But I think it overlooks the fact that Dean has been organizing in areas that are not traditionally Democratic. I would dispute the idea that Dean can't win the primaries in the more conservative states. Democrats in those states are starving for someone to be a voice for them, and Dean, whether you like him or not, has been just that. I believe Dean is likely to do very well in states like Utah and Idaho.

[flaminbats]

16. Utah and Idaho are conservative states with liberal primary voters!

They backed Tsongas over Clinton in 1992, they went to McGovern in 1972, and Dukakis over Gore in 1988.

[CMT]

20. interesting scenerios

But McCain didn't win Iowa and NH which I think Dean will do. Any win in Iowa will be enough to help Dean in NH--even if it is by a small margin because it has always basically been considered a do or die state for Gephardt.

By winning both Iowa and NH Dean will get a boost and some momentum. By the way, in SC most recent polls actually have Edwards slipping and Dean doing better than Sharpton. Zogby and American Research Group both have Dean leading in the state. If Dean wins SC or comes close that will be the big news.

You are correct about Michigan, by now Gep's resources will be severely depleted if he is still in the race. Still even now most recent polls have given Dean the edge in Michigan. He has a great organization and is doing reasonably well with some fragements of labor.

Surprisingly, Dean is also leading in DC well ahead of both Sharpton and Braun and has received the endorsements of most members (largely minority) of the DC City Council.

Yes, Dean is leading in Wisconsin (my home state) but only a couple of months ago, Clark was leading. The liberal reputation your professor gives Wisconsin is a throw back to the days when your professor was probably still in college. Wisconsin is not overly liberal. The City of Madison still is, but certainly not to the extent it once was. I see Wisconsin as a show-down between Dean and Clark.

Now as for Kerry, if he doesn't win NH, I honestly believe he will fold up his tent. Even a couple of months ago according to polls, Dean was leading Kerry in Massacusetts. If he is out of it, Dean will take Mass. by a landslide. If Kerry is still struggling along it will be much closer but if Dean even comes close to Kerry in his homestate it will be a disaster for Kerry.

I don't agree with Kerry winning Rhode Island--NE is going almost solidly for Dean. Lieberman (unless he wins something fast) will be out of it and Connecticut will go for Dean too.

Oklahoma is a potential Clark state. I think New Mexico is leaning towards Dean. Arizona is a toss up between Clark and Dean with maybe a slight Dean edge--bigger if he has momentum.

New York is coming too late to help Kerry. Kerry in all likelihood will be out of it. Also most recent polls in NY show Dean leading in the state--check out the Marist poll or Quinnipiac polls with Kerry well behind. Also, it is sometimes forgotten but Dean was born and lived for a time in New York. If anybody is a threat to Dean in NY it might be Lieberman or Clark.

My opinion is it will come down to Dean or Clark--I believe most likely it will be Dean.

[maha]

32. McCain won NH by several points in 2000

I remember clearly that McCain blew Dubya out of the water in NH. I think McCain skipped Iowa.

If Dean wins in SC I'll give him much credit and say he probably deserves the nomination. The question mark all along for Dean has been how well he could do in the south and midwest.

[HFishbine]

21. Where'd he get his degree? Devry?

"...the overall leader there (South Carolina) is Jonathon (sic) Edwards. Second is Al Sharpton."

You're professor is uninformed.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/polls_State_Polls_04.html

[maddezmom]

22. thanks for that link

good site :)

[ithacan]

23. sorry, this comment alone shows he's clueless:

I can't see New Yorkers siding with Dean.

What is this guy thinking?

[Anaxamander]

26. "DC is moot because of the large black population that will pander...

...to Sharpton."

Hm. Did that rub anyone else the wrong way?

[spooky3]

41. yes

[spooky3]

24. This is not a very scholarly assessment.

So I don't put much stock in it. He's just expressing opinions and trying to make predictions, but he does not cite any political science research to support them. It's like asking Howie, Boomer, & Deion to predict the NFL games' outcomes. Fun, and a lot less complex than predicting political races, but someone with data and a computer could probably do a better though imperfect job.

[xultar]

25. OK, I don't know if this is rude but I think this guy is from outter space

I don't see anythinkg like that occuring. I think it will be Dean and Clark in the end. I think Gep will be the last to drop out.
Edwards is running for VeeP anywaze.

By 2/3 or shortly afterwards Sharpton and Braun will be out.
By 3/2 or shortly afterwards Kucinich, Edwards, and Lieberman will be out

Shortly after that, Kerry & Gep will be out and then it will be Clark and Dean.

[lastliberalintexas]

27. "Dean's kind of liberals"?????

And Black voters in DC will *pander* to Sharpton?

Methinks your professor is having trouble with some personal biases and prejudices there.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

28. Kerry is way behind in all of the Feb 3 states

And I say this sadly because I love Kerry (I like his record and even his personality - love his intelligence).

The only hope for him, I'm afraid is that he comes in second close behind Dean in Iowa - that may improve his numbers.

He's been screwed in this election. I think he should wait to run in 2008 - his vote on the IWR will be forgotten by then. Does his vote on the IWR bother me - only a little. Those senators vote in blocs - why should he have gone against his bloc to vote against something that was going to win anyways?

Right now Kerry's only 1 point ahead of Clark in New Hamp.


Feb. 3
Kerry:

Running 8th in S. Carolina
Running 5th in Arizona
Running 5th in Delaware (east coast - not good for Kerry)
Running 3rd in Missouri (not bad - doing surprisingly well)
Running 6th in Oklahoma

He's even losing in Mass.

[adamrsilva]

29. Dean leads in Michigan and SC right now, as well as DC, MA, MD, and NY.

The professor ignores two other realities:

1) If Dean wins Iowa and NH, he will maintain those leads
2) Kerry is imploding, Clark has a much better chance to take on Dean with his position in national polls and money

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

31. Aldian, is it too late to get your money back?

If he doesn't teach better than he prophecies, you're getting ripped off.

[Hoppin_Mad]

33. You sure he's not really an Auto Shop Professor ? ;-) -eom-

[dansolo]

34. If he had said Clark instead of Kerry

I wouldn't be suprised if a similar scenario occurred, but with Clark instead of Kerry. I can more easily see Clark winning Idaho and Utah. I see Kerry dropping out because his campaign has been stagnating and his funds will be depleted. Clark is the only one who can sustain a long primary battle at this point, but I expect Dean to eventually win the nomination.

[molly]

35. Hmmm - New Yorkers are far too smart and saavy for Dean

California is a toss-up - there are many smart-savvy people there who won't be driven by Dean young-political-hormones.

Many here don't understand that it is just beginning for many.

[LoneStarLiberal]

36. Interesting Analysis; We Agree That It Will Be A Fight Down the Stretch

Interesting analysis...

While I do not agree with his overall assessment, this is a plausible scenario. Unless Dean has some kind of monumental meltdown, I think he will most likely lead throughout the primaries. The real fight is going to take place in places 2, 3, and 4 where I see Kerry, Clark, Gephardt, and Edwards all in the mix.

The one thing I think is not in doubt is that there's going to be a serious fight between Dean and someone else, I think someone from the Kerry, Clark, Gephardt, and Edwards group, right up to and into the convention.

I do agree it's going to be an interesting ride down the stretch.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

37. Not bad analysis, but he dismisses Clark too easily.

"After Super Tuesday, Clark will be gone as well. " WHY? What is his reasoning here? I don't see that Clark has anything to lose by staying in, however he does at the polls -- he doesn't have a job to go back to or anything does he?

[maxr4clark]

38. He dismisses Clark from SC on--wrongly

Pol Sci professors don't know what to say about Clark, there is no data on generals that run as Democrats. National polls put Clark in the top bracket; Clark isn't even mentioned by this professor until he says he's out. I think the whole "analysis" is terribly skewed toward the people that this professor prefers from his own perspective.

There's a Pol Sci professor here who has given a scenario in which Clark wins; but he's a Clark fan, and I don't put too much weight in his "analysis", either. Let's just vote and see what happens!

[Nederland]

39. I think he's wrong about Kerry

If Kerry doesn't place first or at least a really close second in NH he's finished. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see Clark or Gephardt beat him there, maybe even both of them.

[TexasSissy]

40. He's living in La-La Land. Kerry doesn't have the $$$ to compete

in that manner. That's one of Kerry's biggest problems right now.

Clark is the only candidate, after Dean, who has the $$ to go the distance.