Pumped Up: If gas is more than $4 a gallon on Election Day, no way GOP wins the White House

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: July 6, 2008
Pumped Up
By Ron Klain

....While the pundits and analysts spin elaborate campaign scenarios and analyses, this year you can cut through all that stuff and boil the campaign down to a single sentence: If gas is still more than $4 a gallon on Election Day, there is no way a Republican will continue to control the White House....

First, there are the raw economic and financial consequences for most Americans. There is a long tradition in democracies of voters being driven by price increases in key commodities: the French Revolution was fueled by the soaring price of bread, and our colonial forefathers were riled by a tax on tea. For 21st century Americans, nothing is more vital than gasoline. Even more than any particular food item, gasoline is the essential commodity that takes Americans to work, brings their goods to market and powers their recreation. The hit on American’s pocketbooks is huge, and when one adds the many indirect effects (everything from higher prices on goods transported by truck, to job losses in fuel-driven industries, to plummeting resale values on used S.U.V.’s), high gas prices hit more people, more deeply, than almost any other economic phenomenon short of a depression. Pinched and angry voters are change voters, plain and simple.

Second, there is the way in which $4-a-gallon gas functions as a damning prism for evaluating the failure of Republican policies over the last eight years. Wasn’t the war in Iraq supposed to bring stability to the Middle East and curry favor with oil-producing nations, thereby maintaining a supply of inexpensive oil? Apparently not. What about our energy policy? Shouldn’t we be less dependent on imported oil and farther along the path to fuel efficiency and renewable and alternative energy? Apparently not. What about urban or transportation policies to lessen our reliance on cars? Apparently not. In presidential campaigns, showing the consequences of policy failures is often hard to do, but not this time; a look at the posted-price signs at gas stations across the country makes that failure plain.

Third, the regressive impact of high gas prices exacerbates America’s sense of a growing social and economic divide between the few who are prospering and the many who are not. The $2,000 to $3,000 a year that the gas price surge costs families (directly and indirectly) hits 90 percent of American families very hard — and 10 percent barely at all. If you drive to work, you are feeling the pain; if you are driven to work, you’re probably not. And that’s a divide that puts most Americans firmly in the Democratic camp.

Finally, there are the ill-considered and ultimately counter-productive policy pronouncements that $4-a-gallon gas will drive the McCain campaign to make. In September 2000, sensing mounting voter anger over rising gas prices, Al Gore announced his support for releasing supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to “do something” about gas prices. The move backfired politically and failed to assuage voter unhappiness over gasoline prices that had “soared” 30 cents a gallon over the previous year to a “painful” national average of $1.60. Today’s prices have already led John McCain to make a horrible blunder: proposing to reverse a decades-old policy banning off-shore oil drilling. This move has stripped away any pro-environment veneer for Mr. McCain, forced Arnold Schwarzenegger, the most popular Republican governor in America, to break ranks with him; and put Florida back in play for the Obama campaign. What additional, and possibly even worse, ideas are still to come is anyone’s guess....

(Ron Klain was a member of Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign policy and debate preparation staff; was the chief of staff for Vice President Al Gore during the 1996 election; ran Mr. Gore’s “war room” in 2000; and led debate preparation for Senator John Kerry’s 2004 presidential bid.)

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/06/pumped-up/index.html

[Alter Ego]

1. Considering that it will be near $4.50 a gallon by the time we get rid of these

schmucks, I wonder what will happen then.

[anonymous171]

2. Which is why they will go down just before the election.

As always...

[LongTomH]

3. In a fair election, they'd go down!

Excuse me, fair election? Anybody remember those?

And what's this BS about: "any other economic phenomenon short of a depression"? Helllllooooo brain stem; anybody awake in there? Whataya think we're in? :banghead:

[AndyTiedye]

4. They'll Drop it to $3.99 a few days before the Election

so the numbsculls will say "happy days are here again", slap a new set of American flag decals on their SUVs, and vote for the Repigs.

[RC]

5. Dream on. They are already blaming high gas prices on

the Democratic Congress and their raising taxes to pay for the welfare state. No mention of bu$h's war though.

[Sonicmedusa]

8. That is exactly what is happening.

Anyone who didn't get or see the emails that are making the rounds is living in a cave.

[asjr]

6. I can't shake the feeling that we

will not have an election. The GOP group KNOWS unless something drastic happens they are toast. I am sure there are many tricks still up their collective sleeve. I still worry about a set-up invasion of something. MIHOP is essentially still in the hopper.

[pansypoo53219]

7. then bring on the revolution

cause there's BUSH FATIGUE and america is SOOOO looking forward to him going away.

[RC]

10. Relax, there will be an election. It will buy them two months of time.

What we need to worry about are the criminals staying in the White House and not going quietly into the night, using war or another attack by their terrorists friends as the excuse.

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

9. Heating Oil

will be a more important issue come chilly November.

Local oil providers here almost seem embarrassed by the price per gallon they must charge; it was like pulling teeth to get a couple of quotes. We should be budgeting now, if there was some surplus to budget.