ARG daily NH tracking...Dean gains, no traction for Clark

[helleborient]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

The daily tracking in New Hampshire by ARG shows no traction for Clark despite claims by his campaign partisans.

Dean has gained 2 pts. in the past week (37 to 39), Clark has remained static (12) and Kerry continues to fade (19 to 14) while undecided is shrinking (down to 16)

So what would a 2nd place showing by Clark matter if it's still only 1/3 of the support Dean gets?

Clark has been working for 3 mos. in New Hampshire now and has shown no gains from where he started.

[BootinUp]

1. Spun like a CNN pro

good job. But a more accurate assessment is that while Dean maintains a wide margin, he is down from his highest numbers, Kerry has dropped precipitously, and Clark is the only won making gains. It wasn't long ago Clark was polling sub 10 in NH.

I believe Clark will make up more ground in NH.

[helleborient]

9. Clark is behind in polls EVERYWHERE...including Oklahoma

According to latest polls...he's not even leading in his neighboring state. Where is his campaign going?

[BootinUp]

11. I've played this game with

you before, you pick one poll and make all kinds of grandiose claims. If theres one thing that should be taken from polls, its that one of them is not good enough to make grand determinations.

There were two polls ive seen from December for OK, and taken together they suggest Clark is even or leading. But the truth is, its a little early to make any leader claims regarding OK.

[helleborient]

12. I'd be happy to see the link showing Clark leading in OK

Why not post it here?

[BootinUp]

13. Okey dokey

here's the link.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/polls_State_Polls_04.html

[helleborient]

14. Thank you...can you get to the surveyusa.com website?

The links from that site you gave the link from aren't working for me...I'm curious about the methodology since Clark's numbers in Arizona are inflated from surveyusa.com compared to the other AZ polls...I wonder if they are surveying beyond just those likely to vote in the Dem primary.

Anyhow...I couldn't get there so I couldn't check.

[BootinUp]

19. site appears to be down right now n/t

[Sean Reynolds]

45. That link doesn't back your point.

In SC Dean leads in the LATEST SC poll 16% to 12%.

In fact the ONLY poll that shows Clark leading in SC was back in November - where he was at 15% to Dean's 9%. But since December, Dean's been up in ALL the polls.

[madfloridian]

59. The latest one shows Dean leading.

:shrug:

[KittyWampus]

37. MOE Has Clark Tied In Places Or Solid Second.

But then these polls are meaningless at this point.

Do you have access to any internal polls?

[Bread and Circus]

52. Well, if he has no chance then why are you so worried about him?

Why aren't you commenting on Sharpton?
Why aren't you commenting on Braun?
Why aren't you commenting on Edwards?

I mean, they are all behind Dean as well pretty much
everywhere.

[sandnsea]

15. Gep gained 2 pts

Just to be fair and all.

[helleborient]

16. Good news for Gep! (n/t)

[Scott Lee]

50. Even a dead cat can hit something if you swing a wide enough arc

or so it goes.

[Dr.Phool]

17. Real spin

If I wanted to spin the poll numbers, I'd say 88% don't want Clark to be the nominee.:evilgrin:

[BootinUp]

23. made me dizzy n/t

[eileen from OH]

24. If you are referring to the early 37% number

That was a completely different kind of poll that asked different questions, had different methodology etc. It's like comparing apples and oranges. The tracking poll can only be compared to itself.

Don't know if you read Daily kos but he covered this pretty well.

eileen from OH

[BootinUp]

26. There were several polls that had Dean over 40

I believe he got a boost from Gore announcement, but has lost approx 3-5 pts from his highest numbers in December.

[eileen from OH]

31. Yeah, the polls have been all over the place

But my point was that unless it's the same methodology being used and within the same pollster, you can't really compare 'em enough to say that anyone has gone up or down. The only way you can get close to that is to look at polls being done by the same pollster, using the same questions and methodology. That's what the ARG daily tracking poll is doing, so the number fluctuations within that tracking poll are considerably more meaningful than trying to compare those numbers to some other poll.

eileen from OH

[helleborient]

32. Polls all over the place continue to show the Dean lead!

THE political story so far this year...from non-existent in polls to leader everywhere in a year.

The unprecedented campaign continues to roll on!

I'm on my way to Iowa next weekend to join in!

[mouse7]

2. ARG is what Kerry and Clark supporters are saying

ARG!

Dean still moving up.

Good news for Kuchinich. he's tripled his support in a week. However, that still only puts him at 3%

[Justice]

3. Clark's NH Goals

In only 3 months, Clark has vaulted up to the top three in NH. He has always said that his goal for NH was to finish in the top three. If he comes in a close third, or even in second - that will be a spectacular finish.

- Consider that Kerry and Dean have been campaigning in NH for more than a year, and are from neighboring states.

- Consider also that Edwards, Gephardt, et al have also been campaigning in NH for more than a year.

- As Clark said on MTP, NH is the beginning for him, not the end. The next contests are in states were he is also doing well. SC, Super Tuesday, etc. If Kerry doesn't do well in NH, he is done. If Gephardt doesn't do well in IA, he is done.

[helleborient]

7. Consider Clark has gained nothing in the last month...

[KittyWampus]

38. Consider Dean's Newest Support Is Name Recognition Only

therefore attributable to voter's ingnorance and reliance on television ads and media whoring.

[helleborient]

39. No evidence for this assertion...evidence for my assertion...

If you have evidence for it...point it out.

Looks like plenty of sad sour grapes.

[meow mix]

44. good spin!

and lots of wishful thinking. haha!

the generals doing well - gathering support in NH.
the polls will follow..
sorry u cant get instant gratification.
*rolls eyes*

[deminflorida]

4. Second in N.H. is Huge for Clark...

It will put, lots of heat on Dean's Ass going into to South Carolina and the Heartland.

South Carolina
Missouri (After a Gephardt loss in Iowa)
Oklahoma
Arizona

All possibly going into Clark's corner after a 2nd place finish in N.H.

Possibly even New Mexico, if Clinton will twist Richardson's arm for an endorsement.

[helleborient]

8. Having 1/3 the support of first is huge? and trailing in neighboring?

Huge for Dean.

Dean is leading Clark in ALL of the states of Clark's home area - including Clark's neighboring state of Oklahoma, according to latest polls - sounds like another Gep or Kerry to me.

[Cheswick2.0]

56. prediction

I think it is entirely possible Dean will win Arkansas too.

[HFishbine]

5. Anything less than 15% is moot - no delegates. (n/t)

[maddezmom]

6. true

I'm hoping he'll get 15%, there's still time. :)

[sallyseven]

10. A lot can happen on the way to the nomination

Polls don't vote. People do. How many of you have been asked about who you think will win??? Calm down folks. Wait a while until the real votes are in. If Dean does not win bing in NH bigger than projected he will have a harder time than anyone else. Three weeks is a long time.

[Democrats unite]

18. You are correct alot can happen on the way ...

to the nomination. How many more times will Dean stick his foot in his mouth...

[DancingBear]

20. He has small feet and a large mouth

Do the math. :)

[Padraig18]

21. Better question: How many more times will he 'peak'?

:evilgrin:

[DancingBear]

22. If he gets the nom

I can tell you one day in November when he won't. :(

[Padraig18]

25. May I borrow your crystal ball?

I had no idea you knew what the outcome was already.

[DancingBear]

27. Lots of us do

hey, it's a gift. :)

[Padraig18]

28. Regular Cassandras.

Remember what happened to her. :P

[DancingBear]

29. Didn't she get run over by a farm tractor

while studying biblical verse? :P

(kudos to you for being able to get an Iliad reference into this thread, though)

[Padraig18]

30. Hehe!

When you go to a parochial school run by the Dominicans, you can't possibly graduate without being exposed to the classics. :)

[DancingBear]

33. Ah, yes

the sound of my knuckles being hit with the ruler brings back (no) good memories. :)

[Larkspur]

34. The polls prove that Clark is a terrible civilian political campaigner

He rode a media-hyped bubble into the race and fumbled and stumbled upon entry. He made a major tactical error when he lost the endorsement of one of the most potent unions in the Democratic Party -- AFSCME -- to Dean when his campaign made a big deal about pulling out of Iowa.

And when Clark speaks, he's boring and uninspiring. If Clark had the charisma of "JFK", he'd be running ahead of Dean, but Clark is more like a civilian McArthur and Dean the modern Truman and the times call for a Truman, not a McArthur.

[DancingBear]

35. That boredom you hear

is someone repeating "you have the power" 56, 124 times, even as a closing remark in a debate.

But slogans are good, too.

[Larkspur]

43. That line is what empowered Dean-ocrats to boost Dean to the lead

Unlike Clark, Dean's campaign is about empowering the average American and his fundraising success -- breaking the Democratic fundraising records twice in one year -- is due to us average Americans supporting Dean.

Yes, We the People do have the Power and we are exercising it! Get use to it.

[Rose Siding]

36. Has Dennis campaigned in NH?

He's tied with Edwards and I know Edwards has been there some.

[BootinUp]

40. Todays results include an anlysis of undecideds

Dean and Clark have the highest favorability with undecideds

heres the now locked thread with ARG analysis:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=65087

[Melinda]

42. Except that undecides dropped by 2 points, neither of which went to Clark

:shrug:

[Melinda]

41. Slight error in your assertion:

Clark has been working for 3 mos. in New Hampshire now and has shown no gains from where he started

Sure he has gained. The New Hampshire poll (same site):

Dec 17 '03 Dec 3 '03 Nov 20 '03 Nov 5 '03 Oct '03 Sep '03 Aug '03 and July 2003


Wesley Clark 8% 11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 1% 2%

And he is currently polling at 12% which indicates a sizable gain from where he started, at least to me.

[Bread and Circus]

54. Hey Wow! Objectivity! So rare on this forum these days.

[silver]

46. Kerry will come in a strong second in NH

I just came back from Iowa and many undecided voters are concerned about Dean. I think Kerry will come in second in Iowa and be the story leading into NH. He'll get a boost there and close within single digits of Dean.

Clark is doing well in NH because its his top focus at the moment. In the end, Kerry will be the "comeback kid"

[Padraig18]

49. Ya think?

*crickts chirping*

[edzontar]

47. Looks like the "Stop Dean Movement" is failing....

And that is certainly very good news.

[Scott Lee]

51. flopped.

More evidence that a negative campaign of nothing but attack is doomed to failure.

I guess Kerry didn't get that memo before the last debate.

[Lobo_13]

48. Concerning Clark only in the campaign for three months

Didn't he enter the race ahead of everyone?

To say that Clark has only been campaigning for three months is being disingenious. What has really happened is he had huge numbers through name recognition and lost them when people found out more about him.

[maxr4clark]

53. This part of the poll is interesting, too

From farther down on the link in the thread's starter message: (some formatting added to make it easier to read)

Of the 17% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in the ballot preference:

63% have a favorable opinion of Howard Dean
60% have a favorable opinion of Wesley Clark
58% have a favorable opinion of Joe Lieberman
51% have a favorable opinion of John Kerry
47% have a favorable opinion of John Edwards, and
40% have a favorable opinion of Dick Gephardt.

Of the candidates who are not from New England themselves, Clark beats Edwards and Gephardt hands down; and similar to the decided respondents, Clark is beating, or nearly beating, New Englanders Kerry and Lieberman. What this says to me is that Clark has national appeal, whereas the fear is Dean only has New England appeal (polls don't show that, but that is nevertheless the fear).

What does southerner Clark have that southerners Gephardt and Edwards don't?

[Cheswick2.0]

55. love it

The last figure to the right are the most recent, taken in the last few days. Clark is down a point, Kerry is down 5, Edwards is down 1, Dean is still walking away with it and BTW up two points again this week.

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12%
Dean 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39%
Edwards 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Gephardt 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6%
Kerry 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 14%
Kucinich 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Lieberman 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Undecided 18% 18% 17% 16% 19% 18% 16%

Sample size 617 622 623 620 630 624 631

Democrats 438 449 453 449 449 450 459
Undeclared 179 173 170 171 181 174 172
Undeclared (%) 29% 28% 27% 28% 29% 28% 27%

[tameszu]

57. Uh, Clark has traction if you read the poll correctly

What the tracking poll says is that Clark hasn't had any significant traction over the last WEEK. Remember, each daily change is pretty much meaningless, as it results from circulating in and out smaller subsamples (in this case, of around 200 respondants), which would each have very large MoEs (over 7%). It's the overall aggregate change over longer periods of time that matter; only Kerry's change is actually outside the margin of error, whereas the rest of the movements, including Dean's 2 point gain, are statistically meaningless.

Given that Clark gained 4% from 8% in the last poll done before the tracking poll started and Dean--even if we take the 39% as authoritative, which would be a mistake, given that the first 5 days showed 37%--has dropped 6% from 45%, it does seem that Clark supporters can certainly use this poll to show that he has gained traction--because the total sample of the entire tracking poll is effectively a weighty 1800 persons, we can be very confident that he has around 12% and is closing in on Kerry.

[joefree1]

58. When Dean stopped responding to the sniping you knew

it was all over for the other candidates.


Images from Dean Rocks the House of Blues, Hollywood
From wtmusic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=919849
From Joefree1 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=921300