5 Reasons Why Obama Can Win Georgia

[wyldwolf]

From MSNBC:

...why does Obama think he can put the state -- where he visits today and also had two fundraisers last night -- in play? The reasons:

1) It's one of the youngest states in the union, and he’s likely to over-perform with young voters;

2) He can register more African-American voters and then maximize turnout;

3) The state's teeming with non-native voters, who might be more willing to vote Democratic;

4) Bob Barr's name is on the ballot, and that could draw conservatives; and

5) The Obama camp is hoping evangelicals in the state sit on their hands for McCain.

Obama needs all five of these factors to come true to make Georgia competitive, which won’t be easy. If Obama ever starts pulling resources from a state to focus on others, we're guessing that Georgia, which isn’t a cheap place to advertise, is one of the first states they'd yank cash from. But they'll wait and see how their voter registration drive goes in that state first.

Source: First Read/MSNBC, "First Thoughts: Adding It Up", July 8, 2008

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/08/1186505.aspx

[NC_Nurse]

1. Well, he's about to get one more vote there. We move to Atlanta in 3 weeks.

[JI7]

2. how is the economy there ?

how popular is perdue ?

[wyldwolf]

3. The economy isn't too bad and Perdue is popular... but..

A recent poll found that if former Gov. Roy Barnes ran again, he'd beat the likely GOP candidate for governor, Sec of State Casey Cagle.

[speedoo]

4. There's a sixth reason: McCain is a bad candidate, running a bad campaign.

Of course that reason applies in every red/purple state.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Conservative columnist Jim Wooten had an editorial recently that said no way GA is in play.

He's in total denial. I so want to make the bastard eat his words come November.

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/shared-blogs/ajc/thinkingright/entries/2008/07/08/obama_tries_to_make_georgia_se.html

Were you in Powder Springs yesterday morning, wyldwolf? I met a few locals.

[wyldwolf]

8. no, but I was at the Cobb Democratic bar-b-q on the 4th

[bunkerbuster1]

15. Wooten's columns these days are basically all-Obama-bashing, all the time.

He's got another one up today:

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/shared-blogs/ajc/thinkingright/entries/2008/07/09/obama_a_flipflopper_shut_your.html

BTW, he's been called out on a lie he posted in the column you linked to, and is ignoring it. (Jim passed along Chambliss' whopper that Obama's capital gains tax proposal would somehow affect "600,000" Georgians. The notion that there are, in this state, 600,000 individuals falling into the over-$250K household income bracket would be funny if the actual rate of poverty here weren't so sobering.)

[Dawgs]

6. I disagree that it won't be easy. I think it will be much closer than anyone can imagine.

I've seen no more than four McCain bumper stickers. I've seen at least 30 Obama stickers, and I live in the suburbs. In 2004, it was 10 to 1 for Bush.

McCain needs to do a lot of work here.

[Cosmocat]

7. I have made same points, and NC applies ...

outside of the Barr factor ...

The other southern states, people want to think Alabama or Louisianna might flip, but the only factor at play there would be increased african american turnout ...

NC and Georgia have a lot more northern imports, vs Alabama which has pretty much the same people ... Recent margins in states like Alabama are much to signficant for increased african american turnout to make up the difference ...

On the face of it, I like North Carolina to give BO a shot a LITTLE better than Georgia, but Barr is the wildcard that might throw Georgia over ...

[Captain Hilts]

12. I continue to find it sad that the 2004 election wasn't important enough to get people to vote

in larger numbers.

[CanonRay]

9. I've been saying for months that he can win Georgia

as soon as I heard Barr was in the race. He's hugely popular among re-thugs in GA.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. I grew up in Decatur, GA which is one of the most progressive areas in the larger Atlanta

metropolitan area. It's not just about the black vote. There is a huge population of white progressives that will vote for Obama. The larger coalition of voters consist of new voters, students and other young people, professionals, white progressives, a healthy Latino and Asian population (which has moved into Republican districts like Gwinett, Gingrich's old district).

Obama cannot win based on the black vote alone. Indeed there are 600,000 unregistered eligible black votes, which is unacceptable. If we can get those people registered and add to the coalition, that would be ideal.

Really the only way for Obama to win is through a HUGE, HUGE voter turnout. Why? Because those Diebold machines are going to be in full effect.

[ulysses]

11. it's not a given, but I think we're definitely in play.

(someone get me the smelling salts - I'm agreeing with wyldwolf...) ;-)

[DeeDeeNY]

13. Georgia has had its problems in the past

From 2002: "A Poll taken by the Atlanta Journal Constitution published on November 1st, just five days before the election, showed support for Georgia Democratic Senator Max Cleland at 49%, clearly 5% ahead of Republican Saxby Chambliss at 44%. When the 'Diebold' Electronic Voting tally was made public it stunned and confused the Georgia voters. Saxby Chambliss had won with 53% of the vote compared to Max Cleland’s 46%." http://liberty.hypermart.net/Newsletter/3/4_The_2004_Election_Has_Already_Been_Rigged.htm

Georgia was also the state with the mysterious secret "patch" applied to the voting machines the night before the election.
"Top Diebold corporation officials ordered workers to install secret files to Georgia’s electronic voting machines shortly before the 2002 Elections, at least two whistleblowers are now asserting, Atlanta Progressive News has learned." http://www.atlantaprogressivenews.com/news/0091.html

[LiberalFighter]

14. The numbers in 2004

Black Females
Regis 691,616
Voted 527,677 (76%)

Black Males
Regis 464,090
Voted 306,654 (66%)

White Females
Regis 1,544,536
Voted 1,253,961 (81%)

White Males
Regis 1,372,786
Voted 1,090,671 (79%)

Regis = Registered

Interesting that black and white women vote in higher percentage then their male counterparts.

[grantcart]

16. 6) McCains outstanding GA office is located in Florida

http://georgia.johnmccain.com/Site.aspx