Zogby: Obama wins Kerry states + NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, VA, NC, AR, SC, and AZ

[mckeown1128]

Edit: Look how close Obama is in IN and TX






http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


Wow... I don't even know where to start with this awesome chart.

[blm]

1. Welcome to the postKatrina America, GOP.

.

[Wapsie B]

2. Now I know it's still early for me, but where's Nebraska in that list?

:shrug:

[Breeze54]

9. I don't think they poll all the states all the time...

:(

But in MA he's at 25+ ! I expected him to be ahead here. MA only votes Dem! ;)

[Wapsie B]

16. Ok. It just seemed like every other state was listed.

I'm just curious as to how little johnny's doing in the state that seems to pride itself as being the reddest state in the country. Although judging by that list Alabama has still got that nailed down. :eyes:

[nuxvomica]

3. Alert the MSM! They still think this is a horserace!

;-)

[MaryEllen71]

4. I think

its funny how they have McSame losing his home state.

[bunkerbuster1]

5. but 538 dot com ain't calling AZ for Obama

Zogby's just one poller. fivethirtyeight is notable for how it weighs a whole lot of polls dynamically.

[blondeatlast]

11. This isn't the only poll that has Obama winning. Granted, it's just the

smallest edge, but I (virtual native) have an explanation of why it may be possible that Obama wins AZ downthread.

[bunkerbuster1]

19. I read it, interesting take. Thanks.

I think it's pretty far-fetched, but it sure would be a national repudiation of neocon values if AZ rejected McCain. One can dream a bit.

[blondeatlast]

30. The Republican base here is still Goldwaterish, something McCain has run

increasingly away from.

I can see that it could happen, not that it necessarily will.

[Alter Ego]

6. No way we win Arizona.

Senator McCain, how about a trade? You can have Arizona and we'll take Texas.

[blondeatlast]

12. Don't be so sure. People here are PISSED at McCain over immigration

(he can't win either way) and hundreds of thousands of Arizonans have NEVER voted for John McCain before.

I'm not saying it WILL happen, but it's much more likely than most outsiders would think,

[blondeatlast]

7. McCain MAY NOT take Arizona. DU. I'm NOT kidding.

Our demographics have changed TREMENDOUSLY in just the last 5 years (the last time he ran).

Literally hundreds of thousands of Arizonans have never voted for John McCain and only know him as most of you all do.

In addition, the Latino/Hispanic communities here are awesome at GOTV drives and will be pushing Obama for his coattail effect on local races (including the race to defeat the dreaded Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Maricopa County, the largest county and home to the Phoenix Metro area).

Bill Clinton won in 1992 here and even Kerry did surprisingly well in 2004 though he didn't carry.

Wish us luck--and tell all of your Zonie relatives (you know you have some) to support Dan Saban for Sheriff:
http://www.sabanforsheriff.com/2008/issues.html

[mckeown1128]

17. Yep...

the only reason AZ isn't in the CO, NM, NV pick up column is because McCain is from there... otherwise it would be in the Obama bag... all Obama needs is a little push like a certain AZ Dem governor as veep to push him over the edge in AZ.

[speedoo]

8. Zogby Interactive = Garbage.

Not worth paying any attention to.

[Breeze54]

10. Rasmussen, the Rethug, sucks!! - I'll take Zogby over him anyday! n/t

[speedoo]

21. Then you will certainly be disappointed.

Maybe you don't understand the difference between the regular Zogby polls and the interactive ones, which have proven to be completely unreliable.

[Oceansaway]

13. i'd love to see Obama win AZ....

my repuke sister in Chandler will never hear the end of it...hahaha

[SCantiGOP]

14. ridiculous

Zogby is completely unreliable, saying he can win South Carolina. The polls here are showing McCain ahead about 8%.

[TexasObserver]

15. Wow! Those are almost exactly the extra states I have Obama carrying.

I'm not so sure about Arkansas or Arizona.

I do expect Obama to win over 300 electoral votes.

[Robbins]

18. Numbers

Let's rea;;y ana;yze these numbers

AR,AK,and CO-all are really dead heats.Any poll with the lead only 3 points Is basiclly tied.CO Is
treading Obama but he has to fight for It.AK suggests now that the primarys are over and Hillary has publicly endorsed Obama Dems there are coming around.AR shows Mccain Is In trouble while this Is
the first poll to suggest Obama could win In Arizona others have shows Mccain Is not very Impressive In his adopted homestate.

CA-Mccain should just pull out.Obama has a 20 point lead

CT-Zogby backs up Q that Obama Is pulling away here.

GA-Mccain only leads Obama by 6.This shows why Obama Is spending money In GA.

IA-Zogby suggests Mccain may be more competive here than many thought still Obama Is leading by
more than Gore won by In 2000.

IN-This Is a dead head.Even NBC Is saying this could be In play for Obama.Remember this Is the
most Republican Midwest state.Last Dem to win was Johnson.Obama trailing by 1 IS a big deal and It could still be won.

Ky,and LA-Mccain Is winning but Obama Is posed to do better than Gore and Kerry did.

IL-In contrest to Mccain Obama has a 20 point lead In his adopted homestate.

MA,and MD-Mccain should not step foot here.Obama has larger lead than In Illion,or California

MI-Zogby has Obama now with a double diget lead.Apparently Dems are now rallying around Obama.

FL-Mccain Is ahead but when you consider Obama has barely been to florida a 4 point lead(Barely out of amrgain of error) Is not something to be bragging about.

MN-This backs up Q by saying Obama has a double diget lead

MO-It Is a deadheat.And let's remember Zogby was much closer on who would win the Missouri Primary than was Survey USA.NBC IS also now calling It a Tossup state.

NC-This shows why Obama Is spending money here.The pressence of Barr and a huge turnout of Blacks and Younger voters could allow Obama to be the first Dem since Carter(when he won) to take the state.

NH-This Is a deadheat.This should be the only Northeast state Mccain spends any time here.It will be won by who wins the Independents.And that will be what they want more.end to the Iraq war or more
so called Tax Cuts.

NJ-Obama with a huge lead this early Is a warning sign Mccain Is In serious trouble.

NM-Obama with a double diget lead here suggests this could be a 1996 electoral victory for Obama.
Gore In 2000,and Bush In 2004 won by 1.

Nevada-Intresting for them to be tied here.It suggests Obama Is doing better than some others are
saying.

NY-Obama Is doing better than In California and Illlinois

Oh,and Ok-Obama Is ahead In Ohio while Mccain Is In OK.Intresting that Mccain only has a 5 point lead In OK.The Ohio numbers are close to where some other polls have suggested.

OR-Obama has a 16 point lead.This suggests the reason Gordon Smith IS trying to tie himself to Obama.

PA-Obama Is starting to pull away here.

SC-Another Deadheat.This Is tougher than NC for Obama but he may want to spend some money here.He
probally has more of a shot at carrying SC than Georgia.

TN-Mccain only with a 5 point lead Is a good sign

Texas-This Is a deadheat!Which shows the trouble Mccain Is In,and Non Republican leaning pollsters
have suggested this could be a close race In Texas.

VA-Zobby vack Up this state Is heading towards voting for a Dem for the first time since Johnson.

Wa,and WI-Obama has double diget leads here.


This suggests Obama best choice for VP will be one who helps excite Dems and who can best be attack dog against Mccain.

These pollings suggest Mccain my go with one of the following

Romney(To help with Mi,PA,and OH and to attack Obama on the Economy)
Crist(To Insure he keeps Florida)
Huckabee(To fight Barr amound Relgious voters and to try to counter the Clintons supporting Obama
In AK)
Lieberman(In the hope he helps with Independent Voters and can convince Jewish voters to switich to
Mccain and hoping he can help him preveil In Florida)

Obama could also help wins Democratic senate seats In OR,MN,NC,and TX.

[Radio_Lady]

20. Good job, Robbins! You need a little typo editing, but aside from that, thanks for posting.

:hi:

[nc4bo]

23. Thanks for the upbeat numbers and the breakdowns!!! n/t

[ProSense]

22. Do we need overkill? All Obama needs to win is Kerry plus one big electoral vote state or

two or three smaller ones.

If Obama wins with Kerry states plus Ohio; VA and NM; or NC and Iowa.

[speedoo]

24. Folks this is Zogby INTERACTIVE. Very unreliable.

You are all getting worked up over a polling methodology that has proven to be very inaccurate.

[Teaser]

25. those are his shit ass interactive polls

don't trust them. yet.

[book_worm]

26. Sorry, I don't trust Zogby interactive polls.

[Seen the light]

27. I can't take 538 seriously anymore for them including these shitty polls

Come on people...use your heads. These aren't reliable whatsoever.

[demokatgurrl]

28. So that means he doesn't need Kerry on the ticket

in order to win those states. He should pick someone else.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. He'll win OHIO!!! And will take some popular votes from McSame in states like GA!