Zogby showing Obama +3 in Arizona

[grantcart]

http://www.zogby.com/50state/index.cfm

At one point McCain had a 25 point lead in Arizona and it has been declining steadily.

This latest Zogby poll shows that Barr gets 7% in Arizona (there was a well publicized interparty fued with McCain and conservative sections of the Republican Party earlier this year)

McCain's low standing in his own party in Arizona was reflected in his only getting 49% of the primary vote in his own home state.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

1. I just don't think there's anything funnier

than McCain losing him home state. Doesn't Obama poll +20% in Illinois?

[book_worm]

2. I don't trusts Zogby's interactive polls.

[grantcart]

5. by itself it wouldn't be creditable

but given McCain's inability to get even 50% of his primary vote it is clear that the resentments simply within his own party are real. Rasmussen also showed 6% picking third party candidates.

And another indicator that McCain is not well viewed in his own state was Rasmussen's numbers that only 21 % viewed him "Very Favorable" while 28% viewed Senator Obama as "Very Favorable".

It fits with recent trends in AZ

[blondeatlast]

8. He spent more money here than I would have thought he needed to.

In the week up to the primary, he was running ads between the national and local newscasts every night including on the likes of Countdown--targeted ads for Arizona, too.

Ten years ago, he would have easily gotten 60% without breaking a sweat or an ad buy; he didn't even get 50% of the AZ primary vote this year.

AZ politicos ignore our rapidly changing demographics at their own peril; McCain is proof.

[grantcart]

9. well and there was a big interparty fight too

Also he is not doing that well in funding in AZ with the lowest percent of home state funds of any of the three final candidates

[mrreowwr_kittty]

13. *shh* Don't spill the secret. Let them keep ignoring it. :)

[Bullet1987]

3. What is Zogby Interactive exactly?

Does that mean it's an online poll? If so, then we DEFINENTLY have to take these with a grain of salt.

[grantcart]

7. It is not an online poll

Methodology: Zogby International conducted an online survey of 1,142 likely voters. The poll ran from June 11-30. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

[Bullet1987]

12. So it's an online poll...lol

[seasat]

24. It's an online poll with screened participants

Zogby screens and weights it according to survey information about folks who agree to participate. The way I understand it, is they keep a database of participants and they have to log in when asked to participate in a poll. It supposedly prevents stacking the results by supporters of a candidate or issue through this. It's definitely not as accurate as the phone polls but it is more accurate than the CNN polls they put up on their web site where anyone can vote.

[LSK]

4. now where does this poll go if Richardson is on the ticket???

Obama +10 ?

[ErinBerin84]

6. Chudd Todd actually mentioned earlier that McCain isn't doing too well in his home state

First time I've heard it on tv.

[berni_mccoy]

10. A.W.E.S.O.M.E.

[Raster]

11. My father, a Raygun Democrat, lives in Arizona. I recently asked if he would be voting for McSame.

His response: "HELL NO! He's been running for President for the last 25 years."

[BreweryYardRat]

27. Oh, I like that.

Someone ought to send that to the Obama campaign so they can use it.

[kevinmc]

14. That Zogby Poll might not be that accurate, but I bet it makes McCain sweat .... n/t

[Arugula Latte]

15. Ouch!

:)

Even if this is ten points off, that's still pretty crappy for McCain.

[azmouse]

16. Hey look! A thread not about that OTHER subject.

Kicking it for that reason and because I'd love to see Obama take AZ. :evilgrin:

[grantcart]

17. me too even though the poll has been shown to be unscientific lol

[azmouse]

19. Yeah, I read about it in today's AZ Republic.

Couldn't believe they'd actually talk about it.
I get the feeling they don't like McBush too much either but they'll have little choice to come out in support of him.

[TheDonkey]

18. LMAO!!! AZ is in PLAY!

[SuperTrouper]

22. Maybe the Napolitano effect?

[margotb822]

20. Well, maybe if he actually did something for AZ

people would be inclined to vote for him. But, since he doesn't even bother to show up to his job and vote on behalf of his constituents, why would they want him in an office where he can ignore more people??

[Motown_Johnny]

23. Janet Napolitano for VP anyone????

[Lord Helmet]

21. holy shit! taking McLame's home state would be huge

[margotb822]

28. Has a candidate ever won without

taking their home state?

[muryan]

31. Gore did

but beyond that I'm not sure.

[AZBlue]

25. Oh grantcart, you know these posts make me giddy!

I just contacted the campaign to ask when the AZ office opens.

[TahitiNut]

26. Neither you nor I are surprised, though.

It's not rocket science ... McCain isn't really beloved by the conservatives in Arizona AND the influx of younger, college-educated folks is constantly changing the demographics there. It's a perfect state for Obama to threaten McCain ... McCain couldn't pass the "laugh test" among his colleagues (and backers) if he lost his own state to Obama.

[jazzjunkysue]

29. ROFL!

:rofl:

[PM7nj]

30. Oh Zogby!

:crazy:

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

32. LOLZ, That would be so, so sweet if he loses AZ...

[grantcart]

33. and now the media is taking an interest

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6484024&mesg_id=6484024

[NattPang]

34. Well, whether this will happen,

it is good to hear.

[skooooo]

35. OMG

I would have never believed this!