This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on July 7, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology">Methodology.
Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election
Missouri: McCain Leads By Five in Classic Swing State
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 42%. A month ago, the candidates were essentially even. That survey was conducted the night that Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. McCain had the advantage in earlier surveys.
When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 45%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.
Including leaners, McCain is supported by 93% of Missouri Republicans and enjoys a sixteen percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Last month, Obama had a slight advantage among the unaffiliateds and this month he is supported by 80% of Democrats.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 45% to 42%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by six.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 58% of Missouri voters, Obama by 50%. Those figures reflect a modest improvement for both candidates over the past month.
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election