You're dead-on with the breakdown on archetypes. Looking at such iconic relationships and values, I have to say I agree almost absolutely with your abstraction of how voters perceive the candidates, and how divergence from the purity of the iconic model can dull what is an otherwise effective and powerful symbol in the minds of the voters.
But it is a harder and grittier reality despite the potency of your observation.
You're absolutely right; Backing off on opposing FISA put a significant dint in his aspect. There is no doubt of that. But to understand his decision, we have to look at a cross-section of his voting base, from core support to fringe, that might respond to it, and at the nature of that response as well. Think of it like a dart board or any kind of circle with concentric graduation. Heck, we'll call his core supporters 'ground zero'. With each 'ring' of support we visit migrating away from the 'core', we find less fervent support, but a greater number of potential supporters than in each previous 'ring' of support.
His die-hard, 'ground zero' core supporters aren't going to abandon him to the benefit of McCain. Period. One can look at this as 'taking them for granted', or one can see it as having faith that his supporters have faith. That's really up to them, not you or I, and somehow I don't think The Flying Spaghetti Monster itself can talk them out of supporting him no matter how thick it laid on the parmesan. Obama is a pretty bright light still, so their radius is impressive.
His general supporters, like myself, are more than willing to give him the BOTD and look at his actions in the context of what is at stake. By this point, however, most of this 'ring' have maxed on donations and just looking to bring others on board.
His marginal supporters will
not vote for McCain, and, at a bare minimum, they are most likely to go out and vote for him in the General Election. You are, ostensibly, one such supporter. Unfortunately, these supporters have not necessarily felt that the candidate requires their full financial support. That's fine in the balance, as these types of supporters are just as likely to donate as not. While this substantial 'ring' of supporters will likely vote for him, they can be dissuaded from providing either financial or otherwise substantive advocacy to his campaign. His actions regarding the FISA bill may have some effect on their financial or provocative support, but they are still likely to vote for him in the GE. These are the supporters who are
most sensitive to any perceived infraction of ethics or integrity that the candidate could commit. They will curtail their financial or personal support based on whatever level of betrayal they are convinced the candidate has committed. Since this is most likely your ‘ring’ of support, it is not a surprise that a person like yourself will see his backing off from FISA as an egregious compromise of principles. You are not wrong, of course, and your illustration of archetypes perfectly reflects the cause and effect relationship between the candidate’s decisions and the perspective of this highly informed voting block.
His peripheral supporters, embodying the ring that makes up a huge segment of his real voting block, will have given little or nothing to his campaign, but they are the most crucial body of his voting constituency. They are also not entirely informed on these issues, and they can be swayed very easily by both the suggestion that Obama has “sold us out” and the notion that he is “soft on terror”. It is in this demographic that the double-edged sword analogy is most potent. It is still unlikely that many of them will vote for McCain, but
plenty of them may completely withdraw support of the candidate, including not bothering to vote for him in November, just because they have been
barely convinced by enough people that he’s “no different than any other politician”. How sad these folks aren’t enough apprised of the issues to know better… but that’s just our opinion.
The centrists, moderates, and pissed-off Republicans (among others) that make up the
vast outer ring of voters are the most susceptible to the “Soft on Terror” meme the RW would hammer on had Obama chosen to oppose the bill directly. Why?
Well… for one; they don’t know every damn thing that you and I know.
When they hear that “Obama opposed the bill to spy on terrorists”, they, what being centrists and all, may not have the information they would otherwise need to reconcile what
they are told with the fact that he bears no responsibility for the outcome of the vote in any way.
It is here we find the austerity of uninformed decision. It is here the RW makes it’s move with the full bearing and blessing of the media.
It is here, at the outermost ring of any real support, that we find the true key to Obama’s victory.
This last ‘ring’ encompasses all of those potential supporters who might
actually vote for McCain, or just as likely stay at home rather than vote for Obama. They are the middle-class mavens, the ones under the gun who know damn well that they need something beyond Bush. They are also the ones who, despite feeling otherwise deprived by the strange insinuations of betrayal the “Far Left” has intimated, would be the most sensitive to the message of “Barack Obama doesn’t want to find the Terrorists!!”.
Looking only at the outside ring of nebulous supporters, there can be no doubt that the
volume of potential supporters is
very high.
If your understanding of platonic geometry is sufficient, you get this.
He stepped in shit to dodge a bullet.
Anyone who is dead set on voting for McCain is already in that dwindling circle comprised of two fanatics and a half-dozen of Cindy’s “clients”. Some are praying they can upgrade their quarterlies at least twenty-fold. The rest are uncertain enough to stay home or even, like some of the Republicans in my family,
actually vote for Obama.
At the end of my coherence that even KMFDM can fix, I hope you get the thread of this and that I can clarify anything you might ask for later.
I like bright people on the Discussion Boards, and you’ve demonstrated a broad understanding of complex concepts.
Hell… You’re almost off the hook here.