Rasmussen daily GE graph for 7/14/08 - Obama 44, McCain 42 (O up 1, M down 1)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 47, McCain 46 (O up 1)














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup has Obama 46, McCain 43:


Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[skooooo]

1. OMG! WHAT DOES IT MEAN???

[DavidDvorkin]

4. It means we can breathe again!

But only tentative, shallow breaths. Wait for tomorrow.

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks DavidD

I was wondering if the dip in the national polls would spread to the state polls, but it hasn't, at least yet. Of the eight state polls released today, only two changed categories, both in Obama's direction. Iowa went from weak blue to strong blue, and South Dakota went from strong red to weak red.

It's nice to see your lines going north again. Maybe the dip was simply the law of averages at work.

:hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

3. Everything looks great in your charts

Well, almost everything. I think we're seeing solidification of the rightwing vote in a few red states, causing blips like the last few days, but a general, slow shift to the blue overall, as your posts show.

Or so I'm telling myself.

[phrigndumass]

5. Yes, Louisiana in particular

With folks beginning to migrate back to Louisiana, let's hope they can get established in enough time to register to vote. McCain keeps extending his lead there.

I agree with the slow shift to the blue overall. The skeptic in me is waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way, though. Damn skeptic, lol ...

[phrigndumass]

6. Updated just for you

The purple line is the polynomial trendline for Obama's lead in Rasmussen Leaners (all trendlines are shown as polynomial). It's interesting to see this compared to Obama's trend lead in the other daily trackers, like Gallup Daily and the RCP Average.

Obama's trend lead over McCain is currently ranging between 1.8% and 5.8%, with Rasmussen on the low side and Real Clear Politics' Average on the high side.

The green lines are my popular vote lead projections. Proof that the national daily tracking polls are great for projecting the popular vote :D

[DavidDvorkin]

7. That looks very believable

As opposed to the picture one gets from focusing on Rasmussen, at least recently.

I'm beginning to wonder if Rasmussen is adjusting its model, possibly a bit blindly.