It just doesn't add down ---- Why are states showing the bottom following out of the McCain campaign

[grantcart]

In state after state McCain's numbers decline


In states where he had a big lead

In states that are close

To States with a big Obama lead

And the States with the biggest populations like California, New York and Massachussetts are showing the biggest declines with McCain down to 30%, 29% and 33%


So how do you explain that the national numbers remain relatively unchanged and even show McCain gaining?

[KitchenWitch]

1. Diebold.

[grantcart]

3. except the state and national polls are run by the same organizations

and there are a number of them.


I rather think that the changes in party identification and the weighting has been noticed and accounted for at the state level but it is harder than the state level.


But I would like to hear what the qualified statisticians at DU think (and we have a few of them here).

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. I have the same question

[Egnever]

4. different sampling methods between state and national levels?

[grantcart]

6. I suspect its different weighting

but the disparity seems to be enormous.

[Egnever]

7. It is odd to be sure

of course i have no doubt the media will hammer away till they get the horse race they are pretending is there right now.

[grantcart]

14. we shoud hammer back

[NYC_SKP]

5. Ask Nate at 538, I bet he'll give you a reliable and informed answer.

He's good about replying to comments in a thread.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

I loved following those pollster graphs during the primaries.

edited for unity.

:hi:

[grantcart]

9. posted a query there and with our own phrgndumass and see

who has the best answer.

[fight4my3sons]

16. I'm curious to see what answers you get back

obviously I have no idea, but it's a great question :)

[berni_mccoy]

8. It's National Pollsters getting caught playing the numbers game. They think the % Republican

is higher than it really is. They can't track the party identity accurately as fast as people are running away from the party. And the national polling methodologies used by Gallup and Rasmussen doesn't account for Republican leaners or even Registered republicans who have decided to vote for Obama. When they calculate party id % and then adjust, they introduce error, which is increased due to these rapid changes.

[Alexander]

10. State polls are more likely to be accurate...

because they sample a greater proportion of the state's voters than a national poll.

[cliffordu]

11. I guess people are just figuring out what kind of doofus 'The candidate

formerly known as Gramps' really is......

K and R

edit for speling(sic)

[Awsi Dooger]

12. State polls lag national polls

We went through this in 2004. If there's a legit trend it will evidence in national polling first, then show up in state polls. State polls, particularly at this point, are lesser in number and generally catch a snapshot of weeks earlier.

National polling is where you want to focus. It's a tough transition because it's just the opposite of primary polling, where statewide is more significant. The state results will fall in line in logical relationship to the national number.

And it's far too early to declare Obama has slipped in national polling.

[grantcart]

18. actually its the opposite now

there are far more state polls with 4-5 every day coming out

but beyond that we are talking about a consistent trend over a two month period.

[democrat2thecore]

13. I agree - it's bizarre. I still think it's Obama by 7-8 points. -nt

[Warren Stupidity]

15. falling out

[phrigndumass]

17. National polls = Popular Vote. State polls = Electoral Vote.

It's that simple. The national polls are good predictors of the popular vote, while the state polls, although they deal with the popular vote in a particular state, all taken together represent the electoral vote.

My popular vote daily tracker is showing Obama leveling off while McCain picking up ground nationwide (or not dropping further according to his trend):



A three-point lead in the national polls (popular vote) is beyond the margin of error, and can correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote (state polls):



And the trend lines for the daily trackers (except Rasmussen) continue to show progress regardless of the drops in Obama's lead:



:D

[grantcart]

22. As I pointed out on your thread

if you were to actually add the state poll popular votes you would get an entirely different total for national popular vote.

In just a few states McCain has lost millions of votes and there is no ofsetting upswing in any state.


They just don't add up or in this case down.

[berni_mccoy]

19. The Latest Quinnipiac Poll supports your findings and the fact that other Pollsters

Try to fudge the numbers based on what they believe the national party ID percentages are.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502128

[ellacott]

20. McCain is leading by only 3% in his home state?

Last week it was 10%.

[grantcart]

21. unfortunately that is a discredited Zogby interactive poll

although he seems to be down to single digits

[ellacott]

25. Ok

Thanks :)

[Monty__]

23. For one I don't look at polls too much in July

They either get you too excited or too depressed. Remember Dukakis' 17% lead in the national polls?

As for those polls, I really don't trust anyone that has McCain only up 3 in Arizona. The last time a presidential loser lost his home state was McGovern in '72 when Nixon won 54-45%. Even Bush won his home state in 2000. Even in some of the bigger landslides recently, the loser has won their home state such as Dole winning Kansas 54-36-8 (Perot) in '96, Dukakis winning Massachusetts 53-45% in '88, Mondale winning Minnesota 50-45%, Carter winning Georgia in '80 55-41%.

[AwakeAtLast]

24. Lots of great info - thanks

K & R!

:kick:

[glitch]

26. That's like Palast asking about the mysterious third sex

Paraphrasing: Well, 51% of the males voted for Kerry, and 53% of the females voted for Kerry, yet Bush "won" so who is this mysterious third sex that pushed him over the top?