Quinnipiac POLL: Obama 50 (+3), McCaint 41 (-1). Obama enjoys a massive +26 favorable rating.

[jefferson_dem]

July 15, 2008 - Women, Blacks Give Obama 9 - Point Lead Over McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Men Are Split And Whites Tip To Republican

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.


Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.


But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.


The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican's 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 - 39 percent in purple or swing states.


"Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is solid - but it's not monolithic," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


"His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters.


"As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point."

<SNIP>

By a 55 - 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability.

<SNIP>

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1192

[Hope And Change]

1. But this is within the margin of error...

just kidding.Great news.Thanks for posting jefferson_dem!K & R!


:bounce:

[writes3000]

2. Fan-freaking-tastic! Great news to wake up to!

I'd love to get some perspectives on how reliable Q's polls are.

This is just great. I love the breakdowns with party affliation.

Among Republicans, Obama is behind McFlipFlop by just three.

[pot luck]

3. Thanks. That's good news.

I wonder if the media will give this poll as much attention as they have the Newsweek poll that shows his support collapsing (even though they dismissed the Newsweek poll last month as faulty)?

[Bonn1997]

17. That's up to Obama

If his team wants the media to cover this poll, they need to get the media to do so.

[Hope And Change]

4. Kick!

[phrigndumass]

5. Great news!

And Quinnipiac usually asks enough people to qualify their data. K/R :hi:

[berni_mccoy]

6. Kickity!

[sourmilk]

7. How is it that the L$M CONSTANTLY report their polls as much closer?

It is driving me INSANE! How the heck could McThuselah get ANYWHERE NEAR to Obama? I just can't believe that there are THAT many stupid people in the USA. I think that many of these polls are examples of RW "oversampling" or "overrepresentation."

I just cannot come up with another reasonable interpretation...

[Hawaii Hiker]

8. African Americans 94-1 for Obama, women support Obama 55-36 &

63-31 Obama leads among those voters between 18-34...

Those are some very impressive leads, even if the numbers are a little off, they are still big fucking leads....I don't think there is a margin of error to worry about here..

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[skooooo]

12. White men..hmmm.

What is the freakin' problem with this population? It always votes republican!!!

:mad:

[ErinBerin84]

9. Cool!

I know that polls mean nothing now, but they are still talking about that stupid Newsweek Poll on Morning Joe (and they always say "Newsweek Poll, out today"- uh yeah, it's out today, but it's been out since Friday, and you have talked about it for the last four days). The Newsweek poll said that 72% could see McCain as commander in chief (as opposed to like, 42% for Obama), shouldn't that have raised a red flag?

[ErinBerin84]

10. so, Quinnipiac surveys people likely to vote instead of registered voters, right?

[Thrill]

11. What are the pundits saying today?

[VADem11]

13. Excellent News

Let's see the media try to spin this after their headlines of "Obama is losing support". And I love those favorable ratings!

[Orlandodem]

14. This is great but we need to campaign as if we're down by 9!

Don't let McSame fool you. Everyone thought he had no chance but he won the primary after being way down in many polls.

[book_worm]

15. What is wrong with white voters? they always vote as a group for the GOP--particularly white men

[muryan]

16. Decent poll

Undersampled the over 55+ demographic I think, but it evens out when you include the cell phone users (mostly Obama voters) they didnt poll.

[Sensitivity]

18. CAUTION: Different sample BASIS than Gallup etc. Uses self-identified "LIKELY VOTERS" not

REGISTERED VOTERS. Some polling expert note that at this early stage the LIKELY voter measure will capture the "enthusiam" factor which may not be determinative as we get closer to voting day.

[bagimin]

19. This seems more realistic than the recent Newsweek poll

but how the hell can they be splitting independents?

[NattPang]

20. He's hitting that 50% threshold. This is great!