The Daily Widget – Tuesday, July 15 – Obama 386, McCain 152 – Big Sky, Baby!

[phrigndumass]

First comes Montana. Rasmussen conducted a poll two weeks ago in the Big Sky State on July 1 and found Obama leading McCain there by five points (48-43).

Then comes North Dakota. Just last week, Rasmussen released a poll conducted on July 8 showing Obama trailing McCain by only one point (46-47).

And now for the baby in the baby carriage: South Dakota was recently a solid red state. The last poll conducted there in early April showed McCain leading Obama by 17 points (Dakota Wesleyan). Rasmussen hits the big sky trifecta by showing Obama trailing in South Dakota by only four points (conducted on July 9).

I asked a question yesterday about the high Undecideds in the red states: “Does this mean Obama still has room to close the margins in these states, or are Undecided voters in these states merely trying to decide between McCain and Barr?” Well, for one of these red states at least, it appears Obama does have room to close the margin.

You may say, “Not so fast there, fella. Obama hasn’t taken the lead in the Dakotas yet! Besides, those states only have three electoral votes each!” To which I say, “Hope” and “Three is better than none.” And it looks darn pretty on a map.

Oh yeah, Iowa is now Solid Blue, Baby! Obama is leading by 10 points in Iowa. That’s right next door to South Dakota.

Polls released since yesterday:
Colorado – Obama 47, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 7/10, +/- 3.0, 1050 LV)
Iowa – Obama 51, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Louisiana – Obama 37, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 7/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan – Obama 50, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota – Obama 54, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York – Obama 50, McCain 37 (Siena Research Institute, 7/10, +/- 3.9, 626 RV)
South Dakota – Obama 43, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


* * * * * * *


WIDGETS



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


DAILY TRACKING



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.



^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *





Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
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[fight4my3sons]

1. Good Morning!

Big Sky Trifecta! I like that, reminds me of my dad. :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Good morning, f4m3s!

:donut: Sounds like betting at the tracks, doesn't it? lol ...

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. OTB language I understand. lol

Thanks for answering that other question (below). It sounds so simple when you put it that way.

Have a good day at work! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks :)

It should lead to more questions, though. I'm happy to attempt to answer those as well. :D

[phrigndumass]

2. National Polls = Popular Vote. State Polls = Electoral Vote.

In reference to a question from yesterday ...

It's that simple. The national polls are good predictors of the popular vote, while the state polls, although they deal with the popular vote in a particular state, all taken together represent the electoral vote.

My popular vote daily tracker is showing Obama leveling off while McCain picking up ground nationwide (or not dropping further according to his trend):



A three-point lead in the national polls (popular vote) is beyond the margin of error, and can correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote (state polls):



And the trend lines for the daily trackers (except Rasmussen) continue to show progress regardless of the drops in Obama's lead:



:D

[grantcart]

11. Please step back and look at the state polls again

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6502086


Of course the national poll is only popular and the state polls are electoral.


But there is no correlation between the state polls and their popular numbers and the national polls.


There is broad unanimity in the state polls approximately 45 of the states show that McCain has a significant decline in their popular votes - but the national polls do not show that.


But it is even worse than that because the states with the larges population have the most significant drop. California, New York MA, are among a few states that combined show a massive decline that added together would represent a loss of 10 million votes for McCain.

There are no states which show McCain growing, but a handful where he is holding on - but these are the low population states.


In other words if you were to take the state poll popular votes and add them together you would get a much different (and more accurate) number than the national polls -

[phrigndumass]

17. Check that green line again :)

The green line in the last graph of Reply #2 is from the total of the state polls and their popular numbers. There is evidence of a correlation between that and the national numbers, or at least there has been for the last two months. It runs alongside the trend lines of Obama's lead for Gallup and RCP Average, one of which is a national poll and the other is an aggregate average of the state polls.

"In other words if you were to take the state poll popular votes and add them together you would get a much different (and more accurate) number than the national polls -"

Agreed. That's what my popular vote projection is. It's a total of all the state poll popular votes:



Obama's popular vote lead from the graph above is currently 5.51 million votes, or roughly 4.35% over McCain. Obama's percentage lead over McCain has dropped slightly, about 0.75%, since July 4 ... according to my own projection. And this is from the total of all the state poll popular votes.

Maybe I can put together a chart showing the difference between Obama's popular vote lead now and a few weeks ago for comparison. I'll try to get to that in a bit. :D

[grantcart]

26. I got it

simply by using the average in CA/NY polls rather than the latest Ras polls it shaves almost 2 million off


So a couple of new polls in those two states show Obama's lead holding we would see a big jump in the national popular number

[phrigndumass]

28. That's it! :)

Quinnipiac could be closer to the truth after all :D

[jefferson_dem]

6. Thanks phrigndumass!

I'm about ready to slide IA, MN, and maybe MI out of the "Swing State" category.

[phrigndumass]

7. Those are awesome words to read and behold

When was the last time we were able to say that about Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan? Not in this generation, that's for sure.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day ... go to the beach if you can :D

[fight4my3sons]

16. .

:P

[grantcart]

9. your green line showing electoral votes going down but I can't find which state changed

blue to red

[phrigndumass]

18. Strength of projection decreased

Remember, I don't use a map to count up electoral votes. I use a formula derived from maximum potentials, strength of projection, and momentum. These all come from the state polls.

[DavidDvorkin]

10. I'm almost beginning to prepare to let myself feel optimistic

[phrigndumass]

19. LOL! It's a good feeling, isn't it? But we need to work for it!

They won't just roll over and hand it to us. :hi:

[bunnies]

12. Wow. Theres a hell of a lot of pink on that map.

Even Texas! Be still my heart!

[phrigndumass]

20. Could this be the Legally Blonde election?

:D :hi:

[grantcart]

13. Ok I went state by state and here is what I found

That the difference of the popular vote in California alone 3,400,000 is greater than the popular vote advantage of all of the McCain states combined.


The total popular vote difference between the two candidates when done on a state by state basis is 8,000,000


The total popular vote difference based on the national polls is 6,000,000 (according to your graph)


So there is a discrepancy between the state polls and the national polls.


here is the percent I used state by state. For the total popular vote I went very conservative with 2004 and rounded up.


Spread

Alabama McCain + 11

Alaska McCain + 4

Arizona McCain + 9

California Obama + 28

Colorad0 Obama +5

Connecticut Obama + 17

Delaware Obama + 9 (very old poll)

Florida Obama + 2

Georgia McCain + 2

Idaho McCain + 13 (very old poll)

Kansas McCain + 11

Kentucky McCain +16

Louisiana McCain + 20

Maine Obama + 22

Maryland Obama + 14

Massachusetts Obama + 20

Michigan Obama + 8

Minnesota Obama + .18

Mississippi McCain + 7

Missouri McCain +5

Montana Obama + 5

Nebraska McCain + 16

Nevada McCain + 3

New Hampshire Obama + 11

New Jersey Obama + 6

New York Obama + 25

North Carolina McCain + 4

North Dakota McCain + 0

Ohio Obama + 5

Oklahoma McCain + 14

Oregon Obama + 8

Pennsylvania Obama + 4

Rhode Island Obama + 24

South Carolina McCain +9

South Dakota McCain + 10

Tennessee McCain + 4

Utah McCain + 20

Vermont Obama + 34

Virginia Obama + 2

Washington Obama + 18

West Virginia McCain + 8

Wisconsin Obama + 11

Wyoming McCain + 13

[grantcart]

14. So it appears that this quinnipiac national poll is more accurate than Gallup or Ras

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1192&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.


Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.


But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

23. Lovin' it! Quinnipiac is very trustworthy, imho

Big plus: Obama has 50% in a national poll !!!

:woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

21. Here's a side-by-side comparison with yours :)

Maybe we can figure this out together, with some help from our friends here.

One thing I noticed: You are using Rasmussen without leaners, and I am using Rasmussen with leaners. All other polling agencies use leaners as a given.

Also, McCain picked up a bunch in Illinois and New York (see bolded below)

ON EDIT: It looks like the major differences can be found for CA, IL, NY, TN and WA.


Spread

Alabama McCain + 11
- I have McCain +12.4 (AEA 7/1)

Alaska McCain + 4
- same (Ras 6/16)

Arizona McCain + 9
- same (Ras 6/25)

California Obama + 28
- I have Obama +20 (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA averaged for same time period, 6/23)

Colorad0 Obama +5
- I have Obama +4 (PPP 7/10)

Connecticut Obama + 17
- I have Obama +22 (Quinnipiac and Research 2000 averaged for same time period, 7/2)

Delaware Obama + 9 (very old poll)
- same

Florida Obama + 2
- same? Obama +2.7 (WRL 7/8)

Georgia McCain + 2
- same

Idaho McCain + 13 (very old poll)
- same

=======> ILLINOIS ... Obama's lead dropped to +11 (Ras 7/8)

=======> INDIANA ... Obama +1 (SUSA 6/23)

=======> IOWA ... Obama +10 (Ras 7/10)

Kansas McCain + 11
- I have McCain +13 (TargetPoint 7/1)

Kentucky McCain +16
- same

Louisiana McCain + 20
- I have McCain +19 (Ras 7/9)

Maine Obama + 22
- same

Maryland Obama + 14
- same

Massachusetts Obama + 20
- I have Obama +16.5 (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA averaged for same time period, 6/30)

Michigan Obama + 8
- same

Minnesota Obama + 18
- I have Obama +17 (Ras 7/10)

Mississippi McCain + 7
- I have McCain +6 (Ras 6/24)

Missouri McCain +5
- I have Obama +5 (R2K 7/10)

Montana Obama + 5
- same

Nebraska McCain + 16
- same

Nevada McCain + 3
- same

New Hampshire Obama + 11
- I have Obama +12 (ARG 6/17)

New Jersey Obama + 6
- I have Obama +3 (Ras 7/7)

=======> NEW MEXICO - Obama +5.5 (Ras & SUSA 6/19)

New York Obama + 25
- I have Obama +13 (Siena 7/10)

North Carolina McCain + 4
- same

North Dakota McCain + 0
- I have McCain +1 (Ras 7/8)

Ohio Obama + 5
- I have Obama +2 (SUSA 6/22)

Oklahoma McCain + 14
- same

Oregon Obama + 8
- I have Obama +3 (SUSA 6/19)

Pennsylvania Obama + 4
- same

Rhode Island Obama + 24
- same

South Carolina McCain +9
- I have McCain +6 (PPP 7/11)

South Dakota McCain + 10
- I have McCain +4 (Ras 7/9)

Tennessee McCain + 4
- I have McCain +15 (Ras 6/24)

=========> TEXAS - McCain +9 (Rasmussen and Texas Lyceum averaged for same time period, 6/25)

Utah McCain + 20
- I have McCain +19 (Ras 6/19)

Vermont Obama + 34
- same

Virginia Obama + 2
- same

Washington Obama + 18
- I have Obama +8 (Ras 7/9)

West Virginia McCain + 8
- same

Wisconsin Obama + 11
- I have Obama +10 (Ras 7/8)

Wyoming McCain + 13
- same

[grantcart]

24. Washington/Tennessee were typos

Il shouldn't that have been 13? (and I bet that is low)

I think the latest Ras for CA and NY are probably closer than Sienna (who seems to have a history of outlier) and the Survey poll that cut 10 points - but right there accounts for 2 million votes

[phrigndumass]

29. I'll bet you're right!

New polls for CA and NY will come along soon enough and make our day.

[tekisui]

15. There was a great article in the Nation this week. BLUE TEXAS!

It could happen.

[phrigndumass]

22. I would love to see Texas change for a whole generation!

:hi:

[grantcart]

25. It seems that we have Gallup/Rasmussen national polls on the one hand

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6503766


And the Quinnipiac Poll and all of the combined state polls on the other


with Gallup /Rasmussen showing very slight lead


and Quinnipiac/State polls showing 8-9% difference in national popular


edited to add that New poll confirms much larger margin

From ABC News/Washington Post:

New National Poll Numbers

Obama: 50%

McCain: 42%



http://thepage.time.com/2008/07/15/new-national-poll-numbers/




IMHO it seems that the Quinnipiac/ABC/Washington Post numbers are making an ass out of Gallup and Ras national numbers

It seems very embarassing to me and confirms that there is a big difference between the state polls and the national polls

[phrigndumass]

30. One of these days soon, if I can get my hands on the info ...

I'd like to show a comparison of each polling agency's methodologies, especially for the national polls. Got it on my to-do list. :thumbsup:

[grantcart]

27. did you see Berni's new metric - seems sensible

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6503931

[phrigndumass]

31. Berni's ratio graph is very helpful

I'm seeing close to 2:1 myself. Worth a read!

[Demeter]

32. PMan, What Do You Think of This Opinion Piece?

This presidential election is beginning to have a strange feel to it. All the big picture signals, the weak economy, frustration with the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with President Bush and Democratic strength in congressional contests across the country indicate that Barack Obama should be able to win, if not in a landslide, than at least decisively.

These are not the only indicators that favor Obama. The Republicans must feel some sense of buyer's remorse as John McCain increasingly does not seem up to the challenge of a presidential campaign. McCain's awkwardness, frequent inability to answer questions clearly and accurately, and seeming inability to excite Republicans have made only made Obama's chances look better. Other peripheral indicators such as voter registration numbers in key states like Florida and the number of formerly solidly red states that look to be in play for Obama this year, also seem to favor the Democratic candidate.

For some reason, however, the national polls seem to be stuck. Other than the Newsweek poll of a few weeks ago, almost all the major polls have shown Obama stuck with a lead of between 2-6 points. This must be very frustrating for the Obama campaign as it seems like no matter how many things go their way, or how many breaks they get, they cannot get any real breathing room in the polls. The campaign has the feel of a baseball game where one team keeps getting hits and runners on base, but can't seem to get ahead by more than a run or two.

National polls in a presidential election are of more heuristic than actual strategic value because presidents are not elected in national elections. Nonetheless, these polls are a good way to measure the momentum and trends in a presidential race, as well as the overall mood of the electorate. Moreover, in the overwhelming majority of presidential elections winner of the popular vote has become president.

So far, the national numbers indicate that even with all the big picture signs favoring the Democrats, the country remains reasonably divided on partisan lines. Obama's efforts to transcend partisanship and introduce a new kind of politics notwithstanding, this election has relatively quickly become, in many respects, one between a conservative Republican and a liberal Democrat. McCain's numbers in most polls are between 43-46% while Obama is usually between 45-48%. This suggests that the stories about the trouble McCain has with the Republican base belie the data which seems to indicate that both parties have consolidated their base already, leaving very few undecided voters and that anger and frustration with Bush has not yet translated into support for Obama.

A 2-6 point popular vote lead on Election Day would almost certainly mean a victory for Obama, but the inability of Obama's campaign to move these numbers is not a comforting sign. Accordingly, the concern in the Obama camp should be that given how difficult it has been, even with all the signals pointing in the right direction, to open up a broader lead, what will happen if some of these signals begin to change?

It is certainly possible that McCain will never find his sea legs as a candidate, that he will make a bad choice for his running mate, that the war in Iraq will continue to be seen as a failure, that Bush's popularity will not recover slightly, that the economy will get worse and that Obama will continue to avoid making any significant mistakes, but the Obama campaign clearly can't build a campaign around these assumptions. A 2-6 point race can change very quickly due to an international incident, selection of a running mate, misstatement by a candidate, or even a diplomatic or political triumph by the incumbent party. Should any of these things happen, or even if McCain should simply become a better candidate, this race could get very close very quickly. It is likely, of course, that at least one of these things will happen during the next four months.

The challenge for Obama's campaign is to change the dynamic of the race before something breaks McCains way and tightens the polls. To continue the baseball analogy, the Obama campaign may be up by a run or two now, but it is only the 5th inning. It is still early enough for a game changing hit from either side. Therefore, freezing the race for four months is a very difficult and risky strategy. If, when there is one month remaining, the numbers have not moved, than a cautious approach from Obama will be best.

Until that time, a strategy that is too risk averse will maintain Obama's vulnerability to an event or development that would favor McCain. Obama must try to create that moment or image that finally brings those voters who are tired of Bush but not yet ready to support a Democrat, to his side. This requires a strategic approach that is still open to risk taking and to new ideas.

During the primary campaign, Obama had a way of keeping his opponent off balance by announcing major endorsements at just the right moment. This is more difficult in a general election where few endorsements are unexpected or make news for more than 24 hours. However, figuring out how to leverage whatever remaining news making endorsements, or other major campaign announcements into lasting political gain is an essential challenge for Obama and his team.

If Obama is unable to do these things, we are in for a very tense four months as even a slight improvement by McCain could lead to deadlocked polls, reversal of some of the peripheral indicators which favor Obama and another election which will be decided in the last days.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lincoln-mitchell/not-getting-late-early-en_b_112770.html

[phrigndumass]

33. Thanks for linking that! My thoughts ...

It's funny, I just finished writing tomorrow's post before reading this, and I'm laughing all the way through it. Not because they are wrong (they're not too far off), but rather because I see something they're missing. It's the map, especially the pink part. Turnout for the republicans this year, imo, is going to be lower than normal because of lack of enthusiasm for McCain. They loved Bush in the election years, but they can take or leave McCain.

Further, the national polls have a lower margin of error because of huge samples. A three-point lead with a two-point margin of error is more significant than the writer of this article seems to understand.

More importantly, the Obama campaign knows that electoral votes win elections, and that is how they are playing the game. And they're succeeding. :D

:hi: