Latest Quinnipiac Poll Gives Obama Solid Lead

[kevinmc]

The Wall Street Journal

The latest Quinnipiac University Poll gives Barack Obama a national 50%-41% lead over rival John McCain, bolstered by strong support among blacks, women, and young voters. McCain has a slight lead among men as well as white voters. The candidates split the spoils among independents and seniors.

Maurice Carroll, director of the polling institute, said Obama’s lead is “solid—but not monolithic.”

Obama has near unanimous support among blacks, 94%-1%, and a nearly 20 point lead, 55%-36%, among women. His lead among young voters 18 to 34 years old is even greater at 63%-31%.

However, in older voting blocs, Obama’s support narrows to 48%-44% among 35 to 54 year olds, and is neck and neck with McCain among voters 55 years old and older with McCain leading 45%-44%.

McCain’s lead among men is narrow, 47%-44%, but larger among whites overall at 49%-42%. Further, Obama trails closely behind McCain in so-called Red States—ones that voted for George W. Bush by more than five percentage points in 2004—with 44% to McCain’s 47%. In swing states, Obama leads 50%-39%.

As for race and age, 88% of respondents said they were “entirely” or “somewhat” comfortable with having a black president, with 9% expressing some level of discomfort. Meanwhile, 64% said they are “entirely” or “somewhat” comfortable with voting for a candidate who will be 72 years old on Election Day. While 75% said age isn’t a factor in their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for McCain.

Such topics, generally, are hard to poll because many respondents may be reluctant to voice existing reservations. “We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they’re not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain’s age,” Carroll said.

[tishaLA]

1. This sounds much more like my sense of things

and FWIW it makes me very very happy to see Obama hit 50%.

[demosincebirth]

2. My sentiments, exactly.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

7. It makes me even happier to see that 88% don't have a problem

with a black president. It leaves 12% as racist assholes, but then again they also think he's muslim.

[grantcart]

3. Looking at the results of the polls state by state confirms Quinnipiac better than Gallup or Ras

Gallup or Rasmussen show 3% difference or a 4-5 million difference in the popular vote

However if you extrapolate state by state you end up with a difference of about 8,000,000 or about 7-8 % much closer to Quinnipiac.

Moreover some of the state polls used were dated and virtually all states showed Obama increasing so had their been better up to date state polls the numbers would have been very close to Quinnipiac.


That the difference of the popular vote in California alone 3,400,000 is greater than the popular vote advantage of all of the McCain states combined or the projected difference in Gallup or Rasmussen.


The total popular vote difference between the two candidates when done on a state by state basis is 8,000,000


The total popular vote difference based on the national polls is 6,000,000


So there is a discrepancy between the state polls and the national polls.


here is the percent I used state by state. For the total popular vote I went very conservative with 2004 and rounded up.


Spread

Alabama McCain + 11

Alaska McCain + 4

Arizona McCain + 9

California Obama + 28

Colorad0 Obama +5

Connecticut Obama + 17

Delaware Obama + 9 (very old poll)

Florida Obama + 2

Georgia McCain + 2

Idaho McCain + 13 (very old poll)

Kansas McCain + 11

Kentucky McCain +16

Louisiana McCain + 20

Maine Obama + 22

Maryland Obama + 14

Massachusetts Obama + 20

Michigan Obama + 8

Minnesota Obama + .18

Mississippi McCain + 7

Missouri McCain +5

Montana Obama + 5

Nebraska McCain + 16

Nevada McCain + 3

New Hampshire Obama + 11

New Jersey Obama + 6

New York Obama + 25

North Carolina McCain + 4

North Dakota McCain + 0

Ohio Obama + 5

Oklahoma McCain + 14

Oregon Obama + 8

Pennsylvania Obama + 4

Rhode Island Obama + 24

South Carolina McCain +9

South Dakota McCain + 10

Tennessee McCain + 4

Utah McCain + 20

Vermont Obama + 34

Virginia Obama + 2

Washington Obama + 18

West Virginia McCain + 8

Wisconsin Obama + 11

Wyoming McCain + 13

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Most of those statewide margins are sensible

But the ones that are off generally favor Obama too strongly.

Here are the ones that jumped out at me:

* Alaska -- state polls always slant toward Democrats. Very difficult state to poll. Results are many points more red than polls indicate. McCain's lead is greater than 4, in fact much higher

* California -- +28 is simply way too high. That state is not +25 blue on a presidential level. Cut it nearly in half

* Delaware -- too low at +9. The state trend and Obama's national lead indicate this is closer to +14

* Georgia -- no way McCain only leads by 2. Laughable. That state is trending heavily red. I'd make it +8. On Intrade, the GOP ticket is trading above 80% likelihood in Georgia

* Idaho -- way too low. McCain will win by double digits

* Kentucky -- +16 seems somewhat high, based on state partisanship. But maybe Obama has weakness there, more than a typical Democrat

* Massachusetts -- +20 is too low. Closer to 30

* Minnesota -- I assume you mean +18, not +.18. The +18 is absurdly high. Cut it in half

* Mississippi - I don't know where +7 comes from. You can almost double it. This is still the deep South

* Montana -- Obama +5 is probably the most wacky number on this chart. For reference purposes, the GOP ticket on Intrade is roughly 60/40 favorite to win Montana. I think even that is too low

* Nevada -- +3 to McCain doesn't make sense. It's much closer to even. The state certainly doesn't trend +6 points GOP, and right now Obama leads nationally by several points on average

* New Hampshire -- I can't see Obama +11. The state is trending our way but McCain has demonstrated strength there, and it's not a long term reliable blue state. I would cut this in half

* New Jersey -- +6 is too light for Obama. That state polls more red than it votes. You can basically double it

* New Mexico -- where is it? I didn't see a number. Off the top of my head, Obama +5 sounds about right

* North Dakota -- I don't know where this optimism in North Dakota comes from. Dead even is a joke. I wish the prediction markets were similarly fooled. McCain is trading above 70% in this state

* Ohio -- +5 is somewhat high. I know it may not seem high but on a presidential level I can't see a hotly contested state with conservative tendencies favoring the Democrat by 5 points, not unless Obama's national margin is basically the same. I still think Ohio will basically mirror the national margin, perhaps 1 point blue. I hope I'm wrong and the '06 results are re-asserted.

* Pennsylvania -- Obama +4 is low, several points low. Come on, think about it for a moment, is Ohio more blue than Pennsylvania? You have to look at these numbers in logical relationship to each other.

* Tennessee - McCain +4 is light. Other than with Gore, that state is about 10 points more GOP than the national mood

* Texas -- missing. Maybe others are, ones I didn't notice. Hard to estimate, the first cycle minus Bush. I'd say McCain +8

* Utah -- Say too low here and you'll never go wrong, despite Salt Lake City

* Vermont -- +34 is high. Huge win but not a 2/1 margin. This isn't a Democratic Utah

* Washington -- I don't know where +18 comes from. This is not an avalanche state, and plenty of GOP intensity with the gov rematch after the controversial recount outcome of 2004. Closer to +10

* Wisconsin -- again, +11 is a weird number. I hope we're not assuming cakewalks like this. That state always comes very close to mirroring the national margin, only a handful of points more blue than the country itself. This state is trading at roughly 80-20 on Intrade, solid but hardly the indication of an 11 point walkover.

* Wyoming -- +13 is low, similar to Idaho. Presidential Democrats seldom reach much higher than 36% in states like that. It might be somewhat higher this time, but I can't see many points above 40%.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

8. Nice GC, Thanks. I was looking for some analysis of the state polls vs. the nationals.

[demodonkey]

4. Just beware the voting machines and other steal-tactics from 2000 & 2004.

Support the election integrity organization of your choice.

Forewarned is forearmed.

[grantcart]

5. kick for the afternoon

[HughMoran]

9. uckfa ewsweekna

:F