Republicans have usually been able to rely on a very strong base from a dozen or so states. It hasn’t been uncommon in our generation to see election results for certain states showing that the Republican presidential candidate had won there by 20 points, 30 points, sometimes greater than 40 points.
Take Bush Jr., for instance (please, lol). In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 20 points or greater in 11 states. And in 2004, he won over Kerry by 20 points or greater in
15 states. Surely McCain can muster enough enthusiasm from the electorate to win at least a few states by 20 points or more.
Or can he?
The chart below shows how all the states are currently polling, and by how much each candidate leads in those states.
How many states show McCain leading Obama by +20 or greater?Answer: None! Nada. Zippo. Nil. Utah comes closest with a 19 point lead for McCain, but Bush Jr. won Utah in 2000 by 41 points and in 2004 by 45 points. On the flipside, Obama is leading McCain by 20 points or greater in eight states.
The national polls show significant advantages in Obama’s favorability ratings over McCain’s. Things may change between now and Election Day, but for the moment, Republicans as a whole aren’t satisfied with their candidate. And all the polls show it.
2004 States where Bush beat Kerry by 20 points or more: Alabama (+26), Alaska (+27), Idaho (+38), Indiana (+21), Kansas (+26), Kentucky (+20), Mississippi (+20), Montana (+21), Nebraska (+34), North Dakota (+27), Oklahoma (+31), South Dakota (+21), Texas (+23), Utah (+45), Wyoming (+40)
2000 States where Bush beat Gore by 20 points or more: Alaska (+31), Idaho (+40), Montana (+25), Wyoming (+41), Utah (+41), North Dakota (+28), South Dakota (+23), Nebraska (+29), Kansas (+21), Oklahoma (+22), Texas (+21)
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NEW STATE POLLSThe Carolinas both move outside of the margin of error and into the Weak McCain category, causing my electoral vote projection for Obama to drop to 356 today.
North Carolina – Obama 45, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 7/14, +/- 3.8, 676 LV)
South Carolina – Obama 39, McCain 45, BARR 5 (Public Policy Polling, 7/11, +/- 4.2, 542 LV)
Washington – Obama 47, McCain 37 (Moore Information, 7/10, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
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WIDGETS^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.* * * * * * *
DAILY TRACKING^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.* * * * * * *
Yesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest PollsWhat is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.
The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.
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