Gallup, 7/18: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108910/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the first time in more than two weeks, Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds support for Barack Obama falling outside the 46% to 48% zone that had given him a consistent lead over John McCain since late June.

Obama still holds a slight edge, but with just 45% of registered voters saying they would vote for him in November, versus 44% for McCain. McCain's current support, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 15-17, falls at the upper end of the 42% to 44% range seen for him since late June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, click here.)

The dip in support for Obama to 45% from 46% in Thursday's report and from 47% earlier this week (when he held a four percentage point lead over McCain) is not statistically significant. It will be important to see whether today's figures are maintained for several days before it can be determined that the race has narrowed to a virtual tie. -- Lydia Saad

Someone asked the other day in response to another topic about Gallup (or maybe it was Rasmussen) showing a narrower lead for Obama if the organization had changed its polling methodology, maybe its percentages of Republicans and Democrats.

Was that question ever answered by someone with more knowledge about their polling? It would be helpful to know whether something like that has changed.

[villager]

1. Provide a narrative to make it stealable...

n/t

[PurityOfEssence]

24. Really? What makes you think it might not be accurate?

Sure, it's necessary to make it seem close to steal it, but what if it actually IS close?

With some of the mistakes and vulnerabilities of the Obama campaign, stealing may not even be necessary this time around.

It's dizzying to hear so many here who simply can't fathom that anyone would vote for the unswervatives, even when looking at the last few elections. People DO vote for these people, and they often do so in majority numbers.

Why is it even THIS close? Why? It's because the Pied-Piper of newness isn't the Drum Major of altruism he claims to be and his sloppy, predictable and conventional tactics are beginning to rankle many. Obama has vulnerabilities that his legions of ignorers dismiss wholesale.

This can still be won, but not by tacking to the right, being on all sides of all issues, sucking up to the supernatural and playing transparent political favor currying.

[villager]

29. Well, PoE, I suppose I shouldn't overestimate the intelligence of the American people

good way to go broke, that (oh, wait a minute... ;-)

But putting aside any missteps of the Obama campaign which remain unseen in the Golden Glow, it's hard to fathom McCain engendering that much support, because his campaign seems so spectacularly listless.

If that's not a contradictory term....

Meanwhile, we need to get together for that drink...

[book_worm]

2. Oh Noes! I'm starting to panic.

Actually not. These silly daily tracking polls will be up and down. Watch next week with the coverage from Europe and I'll bet Obama will be up again. Watch especially the VP pick, convention, Obama speech and I'll bet you'll see a big leap for O and then when McCain has his convention a week later it will get a bit closer again. In the end the economy, gas prices, and war will defeat McCain.

[writes3000]

3. Since these polls don't differeniate region or state - they are far from a complete picture.

McCain polls very, very high in the South. Gee, I wonder why.

But Obama polls much stronger in the East, Upper Mid West and the West.

That's why the electoral map is more important.

Eventually, Gallup and Rasmussen are going to have to acknowledge this.

[kentuck]

4. Or McCain's strategy is working better than Obama's...

McCain is talking mostly about Obama and Obama is talking mostly about issues. Perhaps Obama needs to define John McCain a little better. It's not like he has no ammo. He must fight fire with fire.

Hint:

John McCain is not respected by a lot of conservatives in his Party because they do not trust him.

He was for this war before he was against it and before he was for it again.

John McCain flip-flops more times than a circus performer.

He does not want to talk about how much he has in commmon with George W Bush - anti-Social Security, pro-Iraqi War, pro huge debt and deficits, pro huge taxcuts for the wealthy.

John McCain is wrong for America. We cannot afford another term for George W Bush.

[leftynyc]

6. Sen Obama needs to hang the chimp

around mccain's neck every single day. Talk about how many times the "maverick" actually voted with this president with historically low approval ratings. EVERY SINGLE DAY.

[kentuck]

7. At least.

:-)

[Median Democrat]

15. If Obama Follows This Strategy Then No Coverage

The press protects McCain. You simply cannot tag McCain for anything negative. For example, everytime McCain lies, the press chalks it up to confusion. Heck, when his surrogates lie, they still chalk it up to "confusion" as though John McCain has senility, and senility is contagious.

I know I reference this a lot in my posts, but the MSM simply will not permit an attack on McCain. the moment McCain is attacked, they will hit back at Obama to be "fair and ballanced." Everyone inconsistency and lie made by McCain will be attributed to an innocent bit of confusion.

Here is a thread discussing this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3499394

Again, this is not a simple matter of bias. This is an agenda by Big Media to beat the Democrats.

[totodeinhere]

5. I don't know why we are even paying any attention whatsoever to these meaningless...

daily tracking polls. They are not worth the paper they are printed on.

[wmbrew0206]

8. Does anybody else worry about the Bradley Effect and whether or not

there will be one in this election?

[elkston]

9. It definitely concerns me ...

Which is why I would feel a lot more comfortable if Obama breaks into a double digit lead to insulate the effects those who lie to pollsters.

Also, I have a feeling that most of the "undecided" will go for McCain. So we need people to firmly come out for Obama we can't count on their vote.

[wmbrew0206]

10. OK, I'm glad I am not the only one.

I am worried since it seems that Obama can seem to get and maintain a lead that is consistenly outside the margin of error.

I know a lot of people are also excitied because www.electoral-vote.com has Obama way ahead, but that website will list a state as "barely democratic" when the lead is not outside the margin of error. I really feel that Obama has to have at least a 5% lead in a state to ensure that it is blue and any Bradley effect will not effect the state going blue.

[Sensitivity]

18. The Bradley effect was apparent in many of the primary contests. Clearly still holds in some parts

of the country.

[PurityOfEssence]

25. I worry that if he loses the election, it'll be ONLY blamed on racism

No mention will be made of the tactics, policies and character of the individual, and we'll learn nothing. People will bask in self-pity and fulfill the reactionaries' stereotyping of us.

I hope people wise up quickly and fight an aggressive campaign instead of an appeasing one like the current bent.

[Hippo_Tron]

38. Ask me again in the fall, polls numbers don't mean a whole lot right now

[dempartisan23]

11. obama is in trouble

he should be much further ahead than he is. im also starting to doubt th validity of these state polls. if obama were really ahead by 24 in cali and 5 in virginia then he would have at least a 10 point lead nationally.

[woolldog]

12. I would err on the side of trusting the state polls.

They are much more reliable.

[dempartisan23]

13. i dont agree at all

none of these polls even make sense. if gallup is right obama cant be ahead in virginia, north carolina, or nevada. nor can he be ahead 24 in california.

[ErinBerin84]

14. the other four national polls this week had his lead anywhere from 6-9 points

Gallup and rasmussen (the daily tracking polls)have them tighter...I don't know what to believe anymore. Oh yeah, and Newsweek, but I don't know, their sampling always seems screwed up.

[dempartisan23]

16. news week is a joke

one reason obama cant seem to get moving is he seems obsessed with debating mccain on national security. obama needs to focus solely on the economy.

[Median Democrat]

19. Obama Did Have Events Re Economy - Big Media Did Not Cover It

Sorry, you can lead horses to water, but you can't make them drink. Fox News has Oliver North and company doing their best to make this election about National Security while hiding McCain's lack of actual expertise on this. Obama has had several events focusing on the economy and social security. You say that Obama is "obsessed with debating mccain on national security."

Okay, point out where in Obama's speech to the NAACP that he discussed national security. Afterall, if Obama was "obsessed with debating mccain on national security" you would expect a mention in such a prominent speech. Instead, the speech was devoted to the economy and personal responsibility.

[jaylemond77]

21. Well, WAPO had him up by 8% among RV and 3% among LV

Just noting that caveat.

[woolldog]

17. Yes, exactly.

The key phrase is "if gallup is right."

You have a choice as to whether to believe the gallup national polls or the state polls. I said I would err on the side of trusting the state polls.

[tritsofme]

22. I remember Gallup coming out with some really wacky state polls in 2004.

Maybe they have refined it since then?

Their national poll is about as good as it gets.

[depakid]

34. Gallup?

Maybe in some other country, but not in the United States.

[tritsofme]

36. Go and have a look at their record, its sterling.

Their national polls are about as good as it gets.

[JoshDem]

23. Gallop Poll

Hey Gallup is a Republican poll anyway--you can add 5 points to Obama to get where the race really stands Oh whoops, thats what they said about about Rasmussen--maybe the race really is close.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. State polls are not more reliable

It's amazing what we want to believe. Averaging the national polls is most accurate, then you evaluate each state based on its logical partisanship relationship to the national margin.

dempartisan23 is correct that many of the state polls don't jive with the national mood. California doesn't slant 20+ point Democratic and Virginia still has a red tilt, all things being equal. At this point that's standard. State polls are infrequent and lag national polls and are generally less reliable. You get many more wacky state polls than national polls.

In time this will work itself out.

[depakid]

33. Depends on the state poll- who's running it- and who's paying them to run it

Someone recently cited a pol having Obma ahead by 3 in Oregon, and I just had to laugh.

More like 9 or 10. Even Republican Senator Gorden Smith has been running ads attempting to tie him to Obama.

The ONLY polls anyone might bank on this year would be the campaigns internals (which we're not going to see). The rest is simply one fools' errand after another.

[woolldog]

35. very true. not all polls are created equal. n/t

[SoCalDem]

32. Pollsters decide what they want their results to be, then they frame the questions, than

they stop polling when the results match their premise..

[tritsofme]

20. I have not followed polling methodology closely since 2004.

But I do remember that Gallup does not consider party ID to be a controlled variable in its surveys.

The percentages of Republicans and Democrats are determined by the random sample that is used in the polls, not predetermined numbers.

[TheKentuckian]

26. I don't see how McCain can break 40%

There is either a problem with the poles or the electorate. Obama is far from perfect but McCain's campaign is a nightmare.

The press is a huge negative too. Watch, like Bush vs. Gore, they'll paint McCain as the victory by just not losing in embarrassing fashion. Obama's bar is much higher, supposedly because he is the less known subject. Obama must surpass where McCain is imagined to be, regardless of where McCain actually is, further that is not to be questioned.

Obama has to run against Eisenhower and McCain just has to show up.

[Franks Wild Years]

28. The electorate...

..have a big, big problem but cannot take all of the blame when they are being fed lies. The USA on a whole is simply not as enlightened, democratic or free as, for instance, your average country in Western Europe, and that is because one political "ideology" - if you can call it that - has been allowed to assume control of the most prominent media sources and suck the life out of democracy itself.

When the mainstream news media, something a lot of people have been relying on for their entire lives, doesn't offer balanced coverage but instead pushes an agenda, it's easy to see why people become indoctrinated, it's easy to see why people are malleable and easily led. No proper, unmoulded country would vote for a 73 year old man of unstable character, a record of lies and following in the image (and from the same party) of the least popular leader in recent history. It would represent nothing but an absolute and an absolutely horrifying - for the world on a whole - joke.

[opihimoimoi]

30. Look at the Faces of the TROOPS when OBAMA WALKS IN....thats all the POLL I Need

[jzodda]

31. I think people take this too lightly

Sure its a daily tracking poll but with all the advantages we have institutionally this election (economy, etc) it troubles me we are tied or with only a slight lead. I believe this will be a close election, and I also believe there are many people who are outright or closet racists in this country and those people will ensure that its closer then it should be.

All in I feel that we can't become complacent and believe its a given with all we have going for us. I think we need to work 2x as hard as normal just to keep a slight lead. I would love to get a double digit lead poll wise though as it would demoralize the other side even more and also keep some people at home election day who don't like Obama but feel voting is pointless with him having such a large lead.

[Median Democrat]

37. McCain Is Outspending Obama In Battleground States - What Do You Expect?

John McCain is spending money hand over fist before the cap kicks in. What do you expect?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25757956/

[jzodda]

42. Thanks for the article

Interesting read.

[Hippo_Tron]

39. It was a very bad few weeks for Obama in the media until the trip overseas

Polls this early don't reflect voters' intentions in the fall. They are wonderful for getting positive press coverage but this is like pre-season and the conventions are when the regular season actually starts. If post-convention numbers look like this, then I will be very worried.

[jzodda]

43. A key event will be his speech at the convention

Its when the majority of people who are not paying attention anyway will get to hear him (and really listen) for the first time. Here's to hoping that he hits another home run with that speech. (fingers crossed) It could bury McCain right then and there. Then could come our big bump before any of the debates.

[ecstatic]

40. Attacks incoming from the left and right. What did you guys expect?

:eyes:

[DainBramaged]

41. Fuck Gallup, they've been pro-Thug for 20 years

They never called me. I'd give 'em an earful.