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Edited on Fri Jul-18-08 09:40 PM by kennetha
Some people are thinking that the Republicans just "blinked" on Iraq. But I agree with those who think that this analysis is wrong. Here's what I'm guessing they are really up to.
They will try to distinguish between their strategy and Obama's in a way that will enable them to paint themselves as wise and tough warriors and Obama as a naive pacifist, who can't make tough decisions.
THey will trumpet this as a drawing down of forces on "our own terms." Our own terms being as a consequence of victory. A victory brought about by the surge. THey will use this to spin the surge as a successful strategy, a successful strategy which Obama, in his pacifistic liberalism, opposed and McCain in his tough as nails realism favored (indeed originated. They will say that what Obama wanted to was to cut and run and not see this thing through to victory.
It's BS. But it's just the beginning of a relentless spin war that will be really hard fought. The Republican's will not at all present themselves as adopting Obama's strategy. Their goal is not simply to "take away" the issue of the war from him. Their goal is to paint him as completely unsuited for the tough even unpopular choices that a "commander in chief" has to make.
Will it work? Depends on lots of things. How adept at Obama is at pressing the case that the war has achieved nothing. But that will also depend on the facts on the ground, how they can be spun, and who controls the spin.
If come the Fall, the media is crediting Bush and the Republican with tough-minded foresight leading to a unlikely but real "victory" in Iraq, -- even if it is only a mirage and a sham like the mission accomplished nonesense -- then Obama's argument that he has superior judgment because he was against a war "that never should have been fought" will lose force with many.
So this is a potential trap.
Of course, if Iraq goes to hell in hand basket, if Al Quaida reqains the offensive, if Afghanastan turns even more sour, Obama's hand is seriously strengthed.
Anyway, I think this is big stuff for both sides.
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