http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/obama_smartly_plays_it_safe_ab.htmlThe Test Obama Must Pass To Win The Presidency
By E. J. Dionne
snip//
Under pressure from the administration, Maliki tried to back off. A spokesman said that his words had been "mistranslated," but an separate New York Times translation of the interview revealed that Maliki had said Obama's withdrawal proposal "could be suitable" if tweaked. After the Democrat met with Maliki on Monday, an Iraqi spokesman suggested a withdrawal date eight months later than Obama's. This was still closer to Obama's view than to either Bush's or McCain's.
The upshot in all these cases: Obama's positions came to look safe and reasonable, undercutting McCain's core argument about Obama's inexperience. And if the Bush administration is seen as moving his way, Republicans can hardly dismiss Obama's ideas as dangerous or impractical.
The Obama campaign is under no illusions about McCain's advantage in the polls as a would-be commander in chief. In the Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week, 72 percent said McCain knew enough about world affairs to be a good president, compared with only 56 percent for Obama. Head to head, McCain was judged by more than 2-1 as the candidate with greater knowledge of the world.
Yet even with this foreign policy deficit, Obama led McCain overall, 50 percent to 42 percent. Narrowing the foreign policy gap could allow Obama to open an even larger lead.
As Obama made the rounds in Iraq on Monday, his lieutenants were careful to say nothing for attribution that would detract from Obama's statements or the pictures of his visits with American troops and foreign leaders.
Their calculation is obvious and almost certainly right: Obama is playing it safe because he needs to make Americans feel that they would be safe under his leadership. If he achieves this, he will vastly strengthen his odds of becoming commander in chief.