Rasmussen has McCain up 10 in Ohio today, we have work to do.

[cbc5g]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election


John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%.

[chitty]

1. I thought I heard this morning that

Obama was up in Ohio.

It was on Stephanie Miller's show.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Not believing it. Rasmussen has always shown McCain up in Ohio...

Even though every other poll has shown Obama up there.

[cbc5g]

7. Yeah, well...they didn't do to badly in 2004

http://www.race2004.net/states.php?state=oh

[Drunken Irishman]

15. They're national numbers shown there.

And just because they were right on those in 2004 does not mean they're right now. This was the perception created with SurveyUSA after the California primary, except SurveyUSA became a pretty bad poll later on in the primaries.

[cbc5g]

18. Nope, it's Ohio state polls in 2004 at that link

True that it doesn't mean they are right on this time, but on August 9th they had Kerry up by 1% in Ohio with Bush leading in most of the other Rasmussen polls in Ohio, and Bush won there by 2%. This is a big drop and could be an outlier and also could mean that the McCain negative ads against Obama are effective at this point. Perhaps things will change when Obama comes back.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. If things change, then it will be McCain coming back.

Because Obama isn't losing in Ohio right now.

[jbnow]

31. Looks outlier. Real Clear politics has recent polls

for Ohio and Rasmussen has a smaller sample
Rasmussen 07/21 - 07/21 500 LV 42 52 McCain +10.0
PPP (D) 07/17 - 07/20 1058 LV 48 40 Obama +8.0
SurveyUSA 06/20 - 06/22 580 LV 48 46 Obama +2.0
Quinnipiac 06/09 - 06/16 1396 LV 48 42 Obama +6.0

This is how their prior polls went...sometimes you can tell more from that

Rasmussen 06/17 - 06/17 500 LV 43 44 McCain +1.0
PPP (D) 06/14 - 06/15 733 LV 50 39 Obama +11.0
Quinnipiac 05/13 - 05/20 1244 RV 40 44 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 600 RV 48 39 Obama +9.0

Rasmussen at McCain +10.0 from McCain +1.0
PPP at Obama +8.0 from Obama +11.0
SurveyUSA at Obama +2.0 from Obama +9.0
Quinnipiac at Obama +6.0 from McCain +4.0

Trend not going the right way. Odd. McCain has had bad campaign. Come on Ohio...

[Herman74]

51. Did Bush Really Win There by 2 Percent, or are you forgetting an Evil Magician...

...known as Diebold, which can mysteriously transform exit-poll victories into election-district defeats?

[GalleryGod]

27. Must an old man's "SURGE" Eh? Viva Viagara!

Grab some decaf,fans!

[EnviroBat]

3. God help me the people of my state are FUCKING IDIOTS!

I can't stand it here. Nothing but RW, mouth-breathers. War, hunting, and NASCAR are the religions of choice here. I want the fuck out of here!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

30. I guess it'a letter to the editor time!

I guess we'll have to run some ads

[Bake]

36. I thought Mississippi had the monopoly on that!

At least you'd think that from the posts around here lately.

Bake

[maxsolomon]

43. an ex-buckeye who applauds your sentiment

i never miss Cincinnati.

[Demi_Babe]

4. Ohio: Weak Obama -> Mod Obama

from Election Projection

[bluestateguy]

5. Yeah. Whatever. That poll is nonsense.

PPP has Obama up 8 yesterday, and maybe that is excessive too, but there is no way Scott Republican Rasmussen can expect me to take that poll seriously.

[Thrill]

6. PPP Yesterday Obama 48% McCain 40%

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/poll_obama_holds_healthy_lead.php

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. Bob Barr is on the Ballot and Rasmussen didn't include him

In the poll if that tells you anything. Barr is polling around 8%

[geek tragedy]

14. Barr will not get 8%.

Ross Perot had billions of dollars to spend and near-100% name recognition, and he only got 8.4%.

[Ichingcarpenter]

24. I'm saying he's not in the poll and needs to be considered

if you think Barr doesn't count in this election you are wrong.

[still_one]

9. all i can say in those states who have been fuc*ed by bush, you vote for mccain

you deserve the last eight years, your jobs being lost, high fuel prices, desruction of social security, medicare, and all the other issues which will destroy you economicaly and otherwise with mccain

you won't get sympathy from me if you learned nothing from 8 years ago

[President Decider]

10. Only true conservative city in Ohio is Cincinnasty..

Cincinnati lives in a politically, ethnically, and socially sterile bubble anyhow. They're always about 20 years behind the rest of the country.

[WCGreen]

11. Outside of Cleveland, Akron and Columbus, the suburbs and

rural areas are almost exclusively republican.

[GDAEx2]

19. Toledo? Youngstown? Dayton?

C'mon!

[WCGreen]

21. Large cities....

Those citys only have populations of under 200k...

They are surrounded by red rural and suburban areas...

[Dawgs]

50. Toledo has over a million people - and it's extremely blue (even in the suburbs)

Same in Dayton - where my brother went to school.

You really need to get your facts right before posting.

[WCGreen]

52. Hate to tell you this but Toledo only has about 295k and Dayton

has about 155k.

No city in Ohio goes over 1 million, Columbus has about 750k and Cleveland about 440k...

So yes, I do have my facts straight. I have lived in Ohio all my life and am in fact, at this very moment, involved in a statewide political campaign. So yes, I know Ohio a little better than you or your brother who went to School In Dayton...

The cities are blue but the suburbs are at best purple.

Now all indication say that things are going to change after this election, but the last time a Dem was Speaker of the House was in 1994, the last time in the Senate, the early 80's. And Ted Strickland is the first Democrat to hold the Gov since 1986...

[Dawgs]

54. I lived in Toledo for over 20 years, and you're wrong.

You can't just include the city - you have to include every city that connects with it. The combined area has over 700,000 - none of which are red areas. Just because you campaign statewide (which I very much doubt) does not mean you know more than everyone else.

I lived in the suburbs of Toledo almost my whole life and they were blue. Did you live in the suburbs of Toledo almost your life? Unless you did I doubt you know more about that area than I do.

BTW, my brother has been campaigning in Columbus for Obama since February. Do you know more about Columbus than him since you claim to be the expert of the whole state?

[WCGreen]

55. I lived in Columbus for over five years....

So yea, I know Columbus...

But you stated they had over a million people in Toledo and Dayton and that is just flat out wrong. That is what I was taking you to task about.

The state has been trending blue since 2004, prior to that, the state has been as red as it can be. The state senate only had 11 dem's out of 33 for most of the 90's and into the 00's.

The rural areas around all the cities are red.

So again, let me get this straight, you said Toledo had over a million people and now you want to include all of Lucas County which you now admit has only about 700k.

So Toledo Akron Cleveland Dayton and Youngstown are all Blue or Purple. That still leaves more than half the state in very very Red territory.

[EnviroBat]

45. You'll find waaaaay too many fuggin repukes in Columbus

If you ever visit here, you may be surprised by the high asshole factor in Columbus. The pukes are really easy to spot, they all drive high-dollar SUV's, act like their shit doesn't stink, and run their fucking mouths too much. I hate this city and many of the people it. If it wasn't for a great job, (the pinnacle of a career built without a college education), I'd leave here in a heartbeat.

[WCGreen]

53. I'd blast out of Ohio in a New York minute if I could...

[Eric J in MN]

12. We can donate to the Ohio Democratic Party.

http://www.ohiodems.org

[book_worm]

13. I agree there is work to do. But I don't believe McCain is up 10 in Ohio

I'll want to see other polls back that up.

[mtnester]

16. If you live here, you know this state is still up for grabs

the VP choice may decide Ohio and the close swing states of PA and Indiana and VA. I have to believe each side is completely aware of that, one can only hope the Repubs are being pressured by the right wingnuts to do something stupid

[EnviroBat]

46. God I hope so.

After all the progress we made getting rid of that c*%k-sucker Kenneth Blackwell, we don't need to go backwards now...

[Teaser]

17. Ras is wrong.

.

[Fovea]

20. November will tell

When heating oil is through the roof and food has gone up another fifteen percent because the diesel and gas to deliver it is at $7 and 5.50/ gal respectively, when al Maliki is demanding that we leave Iraq at once after Bush attacks Iran and Venezuela in October.

I suspect that the number of McCain voters turned away from the polls due to martial law will be a lot smaller than Obama would be voters. But Murika will soldier on without the 08 election, and the world will soldier on without Tehran, Jerusalem, Riyadh, Amman, Islamabad, or Mumbei.

And who knows about Washington, New York, LA, or Chicago? If it has a port or air freight facility, it could pop. Cheney needs another 911. Our military swells with the prison population offered sentence reduction or even pardon. Staff Sergeants really earn their pay. Ten percent of new enlists will die during basic from GSW.

At that point, you might even see a Cheney/McCain one party ticket, or perhaps a Lieberman/Blunt ticket to continue the breaking of America for profit. You will be allowed to vote, and you will. Most Dem Pols are arrested on the day martial law is declared.

What you won't see is anyone left who gives a squat about the former middle and current working classes. And while you won't see a lot of SUV's, the ones you do will be full of CACI mercs.

[cbc5g]

22. A lot of people think this election is in the bag because McCain is a horrible candidate

Well, don't dare discount the stupidity of the American people. Don't.

[Alter Ego]

23. Crosstabs gave McCain Republicans by an 88-5 margin.

They also had him WINNING the 18-29 age demographic.

This poll is fishy at best.

[writes3000]

29. McCain is winning 18-29 yr olds? Complete bullshit. n/t

[book_worm]

32. I agree something is wrong with that.

[Franks Wild Years]

34. Indeed. The PPP poll has Obama winning that demograph by....

59 - 26

Frankly, it's preposterous to think that McCain will be surging ahead amongst that group in a swing state like Ohio. Absolute bollocks.

[Zynx]

25. I rather doubt it. There is no way McCain is up more in Ohio than he is in NC.

[BluegrassDem]

26. Ohio is one reason why I think Gov. Tim Kaine will be the VP

Obama NEEDS to win Virginia to blunt a possible Ohio loss. Although I think Ohio will go Dem this year, you can never be sure. Ohio is an onery state. Dems can't trust how they'll vote, so Obama is smart to count on other states.

If Obama wins VA, to go along with Iowa, then that negates the 20 EV's Ohio has. VA is crucial!

[Bleacher Creature]

33. Even assuming this poll is crap, this is so frustrating.

Who in their right mind -- particularly in a state that's suffered as much as Ohio -- would ever consider voting for McSame? And how many gaffes does he have to make to lose votes?

I agree that these numbers are almost certainly off, but the fact that it's close is really a sad statement on the state of Ohio.

[dontforgetpoland]

35. Crosstabs between Rasmusseun and PPP polling of OHIO

Rasmusseun McCain 52% - Obama 42%
PPP Obama 48% - McCain 40%

Whites:
Ras PPP
McCain 60% 46%
Obama 34% 42%

Men:
Ras PPP
McCain 56% 48%
Obama 36% 41%

Women:
Ras PPP
McCain 48% 34%
Obama 47% 54%

Independents:
Ras PPP
McCain 56% 37%
Obama 33% 42%

Something doesn't seem right here.

[briv1016]

37. Pollster.com says otherwise.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/08-oh-pres-ge-mvo.php

[grantcart]

39. No it doesn't it has the Rasmussen poll on top showing McCain ahead by 10 points

[briv1016]

40. But look at the overall trend.

[grantcart]

41. Yes we know but the OP is about the latest poll and what happened 1 month ago is

not very relevant. One more bad poll result and the trend lines will start to change radically.

[EnviroBat]

47. I can't really trust the Rasmussen poll.

McCain goes from a 1 point to 10 point lead in 1 month? I'll admit that Ohio can be a pretty retarded place, but that is just staggering.

[Fluffdaddy]

38. Wake me in October when polls means something

[woolldog]

42. No surprise after the beating he's taken from the left wing of his own party

over the past month or so.

[EnviroBat]

48. Thank you.

The "fair weather friends" aren't helping a bit.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. This should be a valuable lesson, regarding reliance on state polls

I keep reading, here and elsewhere, that we should rely on state polls, that they are more accurate and the true status of the race. That's remarkable ignorance. Obviously the work of novices. I keep trying to shoot it down but frankly it's tiresome.

State polls are more relevant in primaries. In a general election it's a complete reversal. National polls are the valid guideline, particular when averaged, and they pinpoint where individual states are likely to fall in line.

I've studied polls extensively since '96. You always have examples like this, a wacky state poll. There will be many more. I learned a decade ago to disregard them and default to logical relationship to the national mood.

You'll save yourself plenty of headaches, and scrambling for rationalization, when there is none.

I can't believe those guys at 538, poblano or whoever it is, are wasting time trying to make sense of this poll. Does anyone seriously believe Obama leads nationally, but trails in Ohio by 10 points? LOL. I might as well say an NFL team will go unbeaten but have zero Pro Bowlers. At some point logical correlation has to thump you in the head.

Here's some tonic, the recent chart from Ohio, with the partisan index (state relationship to the national vote). Example: Bush won nationally by 2.46% in 2004, so that is the benchmark. You'll notice that Ohio had a slight but steady GOP tilt until 2004, when the horrid state economy and corrupt statewide Republicans pushed it narrowly into our camp, in comparison to the national vote. That surged in the '06 midterm when Strickland and Brown won big, and there's no reason to believe Ohio won't vote very similarly to the nation in '08, if not slightly more blue. Also, of course, you can take into account the votes we lost in '04 due to suppression shenanigans from Blackwell, so the + 0.36% Democratic was no doubt somewhat low:

Ohio:

'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican
'04: Bush (50.81 - 48.71) = +0.36% Democratic

[saltpoint]

49. Can't say for sure, but these findings have a real hollow ring to me.

I think Obama is leading in Ohio and will carry the state.