Obama's betting everything on voter mobilization. Will it work?

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=d653093b-9f19-4b92-a863-83626dcce2b5

Mobilization Nation by Alan Abramowitz
Obama's betting everything on voter mobilization. Will it work?
Post Date Tuesday, July 22, 2008


By turning down nearly $85 million in public financing for the 2008 general election, Barack Obama's campaign has put itself in a position to spend at least $200 million between the Democratic convention and Election Day. Much of that money, and millions more from state and national Democratic Party organizations, labor unions, and other allied groups will be devoted to voter mobilization: registration and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts aimed at substantially increasing turnout among African Americans, Hispanics, and younger Americans, all of whom are expected to strongly support the Democratic candidate--if they vote. Hundreds of paid organizers have already been dispatched to key states such as Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio to prepare for a massive voter registration drive in the late summer and fall. Some three hundred paid organizers have reportedly been assigned to Ohio alone.

The Obama campaign is apparently convinced that a well-funded voter mobilization campaign can dramatically increase turnout among these pro-Obama demographics and potentially alter the outcome of the election in states including Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and even Georgia, where such groups make up a large proportion of the population and an even larger proportion of non-voters. But how realistic is this belief? And is this the best way for Obama to be spending his millions? Evidence from the 2004 presidential election and the findings of recent GOTV research indicate that mobilization campaigns work even if their effects are fairly modest. Dollar for dollar, money spent on voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives probably pays bigger dividends than money spent on further saturating already saturated media markets with 30-second TV spots

The best research on voter mobilization has been done by political scientists Donald Green and Alan Gerber of Yale University. Their results are generally considered the gold standard in this area because they are based on hundreds of carefully designed controlled experiments with real voters in real elections. And although their research thus far has focused exclusively on GOTV campaigns, their findings would appear to apply to voter registration campaigns as well. Anyone seriously interested in this subject should get a copy of the just-released second edition of their book, Get Out the Vote!

What Green and Gerber have found, in a nutshell, is that the most effective mobilization campaigns rely on door-to-door canvassing by well-trained, enthusiastic volunteers who are familiar with the community in which they are canvassing. Telephone canvassing, when done by skilled, enthusiastic volunteers, is a good second option because it is generally less costly than door-to-door canvassing. Other techniques, such as leafleting and mass mailings, have smaller effects. Finally, media-based campaigns (i.e. radio and TV ads urging people to vote) are generally ineffective, although Green and Gerber report in the second edition of their book that the 2004 "Rock the Vote" campaign appears to have had some success in raising turnout among its target audience of younger voters.

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It has long been part of the conventional wisdom of American politics that voter mobilization campaigns are more important for Democrats than for Republicans. That's partly because the Democratic Party's electoral base is made up disproportionately of lower income and minority voters who may need an extra push to register and get to the polls on Election Day. In addition, however, Democrats have an advantage when it comes to voter mobilization because their core supporters are more geographically concentrated. This makes voter registration and GOTV campaigns more efficient because you're less likely to inadvertently mobilize supporters of the opposing party.

Political science research and the results of the 2004 election demonstrate that pouring millions of dollars into voter registration and GOTV campaigns will not turn red states blue. However, a substantial investment in voter mobilization could increase the Democratic share of the vote by a point or two in a few swing states, and based on the last two presidential elections, that could well be the difference between victory and defeat.

[napi21]

1. One other thing SOMEBODY needs to work on NOW is

voting machine availability! I remember hearing about many voters who had to wait in lines for HOURS because there weren't enough machines available, or some of the machines were out of order. I am a strong Dem, and I've NEVER missed voting in ANY election EVER!!!! But I have to tell you, I am NOT willing to wait hours in lines to vote! Physically, I can't, and mentaly I won't! I have an absentee ballot app sitting on my desk right now, and I'm planning on using that option. I know I'm not alone in being unable to wait in long lines. Many people simply can't! Their work schedule or family needs make it impossible for them to do that.

What can we do NOW to prevent this problem?

[Andy823]

2. This country is ready for change.

There are a lot of people who have never voted that want change, real change, and if they can get motivated to get out and vote, it will help Obama, no question about it. There are all kinds of tricks that the republicans can use "cheat" in the elections, from hacking voting machines, to stopping people from voting one way or another. However if there are millions of new voters going to the polls, it can only help Obama, if the republicans try any of their dirty tricks. I am still of the opinion that the republicans aren't going to fight this election much since they know it's pretty hopeless for them. I think they will just take on the job of blaming everything on the democrats, and then try and make a comeback in 2012. Bush has really screwed things up, and they know it, it is going to be tough for Obama to get things back in order, although with control of congress, getting rid of the present leadership in the party, and new faces who are willing to fight for the people instead of the corporations, it can be done. The republicans just aren't going to waste anyone with any "real" potential this year.