Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources
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1. TIDBITS – The Nail-Biter States(Tangent: The 6-column state chart is in high demand, so I am making it a part of this post every day. It will be located in Section 7, just below the electoral college map.) :D
My posts this week have been about Mixed Signals. Although this year’s election is definitely not a horse race, it is still marginally close. Some national polls have Obama leading by one or two points, and others show him leading by five or six. Anything beyond that is an outlier at this point, imo.
My snapshot is showing Obama currently leading nationwide by 3.6 points (46.7 to 43.1), with 7.2% undecided. When we factor in the Wigand Electoral Average for projection, Obama’s lead expands to 4.6 points (50.8 to 46.2).
Of course, this refers directly to the nationwide popular vote, not the electoral vote. But there are a few states where the statewide popular vote could tip the electoral vote and the election. These are the Nail-Biters, and they currently encompass 80 electoral votes.
If one candidate led by 348 electoral votes to 190 electoral votes (today’s count is 356-182) and lost all five of the current Nail-Biters, the leading candidate would lose the election (268 to 270).
Ohio (20) (McCain +1) – Polls for Ohio this year have been all over the place. Obama has been polling between 40% and 50% here this year, while McCain’s polls have been ranging between 38% and 52%. One pollster (Rasmussen) has shown McCain winning in every poll, while the rest of the batch has gone back and forth.
Indiana (11) (Obama +1) – McCain owned Indiana up until the primary battle there. Since then, Obama has led there in three of the last four polls. Obama’s range is between 38% and 49% in Indiana, while McCain has been polling from 40% to 51%. Indiana is due for another poll, as the last legitimate poll there was conducted a month ago.
Florida (27) (Obama +0.5) – If you wonder why sometimes a projection can take a huge leap or show a major drop, most of the time you can blame Florida. In the past couple months, Florida polls have switched from red to blue and back again a couple times. This year, Obama has been polling between 37% and 49% in Florida, while McCain’s range is four points higher (41% to 53%). Of the 21 polls conducted in Florida this year, Obama has led in only four of them. But all four of these polls have occurred in the last six weeks.
Virginia (13) (Obama +0.5) – Survey USA was the first to catch Obama high on the Virginia radar back in February. Obama has led McCain in Virginia in six of the last seven polls conducted there. But this is new territory for us. Obama is ranging between 39% and 51% in Virginia this year, while McCain has been polling between 39% and 52%.
Colorado (9) (Obama +0.5) – McCain is beginning to gain ground in Colorado, which was considered just outside of his reach until this week. Obama was on a seven-poll winning streak in Colorado until Quinnipiac’s new poll (see below) showed McCain leading there by two points. Quinnipiac is trustworthy, and we should give this new poll our attention. Each candidate’s range in Colorado is very similar (Obama 39%-50%, McCain 38%-51%).
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2. WIDGETS^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.* * * * * * *
3. NEW STATE POLLSEight new polls have been released since yesterday. Quinnipiac University is now showing McCain leading in Colorado and Obama barely leading in Minnesota. At the same time, Pennsylvania moves outside the margin of error and becomes a Weak Obama state. In the states that change categories today, Obama goes one for three.
By the way, did you notice Wisconsin’s trading? Up 12.70 to 92.00! (See Figure 2b above and Figure 6b below.) Wisconsin becomes the first swing state to cross the 90 mark, as Obama continues to poll Strong Blue there.
Colorado
Obama 44, McCain 46 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Michigan
Obama 46, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.4, 1684 LV)
Minnesota
Obama 46, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 2.8, 1261 LV)
Mississippi
Obama 42, McCain 51 (Research 2000, 7/23, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Dakota
Obama 42, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 51, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 7/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Wisconsin
Obama 50, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac, 7/22, +/- 3.0, 1094 LV)
Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)* * * * * * *
5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).* * * * * * *
6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.* * * * * * *
7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART* * * * * * *
8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest PollsWhat is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.
The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.
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