Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources
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1. TIDBITS – More Comparisons to 2004My curiosity was aroused again yesterday by those who believe this year’s election results will be similar to that of 2004 or 2000, with just a couple states deciding differently to create a very narrow Obama win. It’s true we currently have a lock on all the Kerry states from 2004, but we’re seeing something very different this year … something we haven’t seen since 1996.
We should expect both sides to receive strong support from certain states. These are their base states, or their
safe states. In 2004, each candidate’s safe states were fairly evenly distributed with regards to electoral votes.
We can see on the graph below that Bush (dark red line) was ranging between 130 and 170 electoral votes from strong states all year long. Bush had a solid, unwavering base. Kerry’s (dark blue line) range was greater with huge swings, but sometimes his EV total from strong states was more than Bush’s and sometimes it was less. Obama (light blue line) and McCain (orange line) haven’t crossed paths yet this year with regards to electoral vote totals from strong states.
The graph below will help us see the big picture more clearly. It shows the Democratic candidate’s
lead over the Republican candidate regarding electoral vote totals from strong states only.
First, notice where the line for Zero is. The blue shaded area above zero denotes the Democratic-leading territory. The red shaded area below zero denotes the Republican-leading territory. A negative number shows the Democratic candidate trailing.
The line for 2004 (red line) hovered around the Zero marker for a majority of the election season. Only eight weeks during 2004 did one candidate lead the other candidate by more than 50 strong electoral votes (Kerry led only twice by greater than 50, and Bush led 6 times by greater than 50).
However, the line for 2008 (blue line) hasn’t been anywhere near the Zero marker since early May. Obama has led McCain by greater than 50 strong electoral votes for eleven straight weeks, five of those weeks by a margin of greater than 100.
True, McCain is a weaker candidate than Bush. But we shouldn’t discount the fact that Obama is a stronger candidate than Kerry
and Gore. The last time the difference in strength between the two presidential candidates was so lopsided was in 1996, when Clinton beat Dole 379 to 159 in the Electoral College and by a margin of eight million votes.
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2. WIDGETS^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.* * * * * * *
3. NEW STATE POLLSOnly four polls were released since Friday. Colorado switches back to blue for Obama, while South Carolina gets as red as it can get for McCain. California is now showing only a 10-point spread. The last poll for California showed a 24-point lead for Obama. But only 500 likely voters were polled this time, and that’s hardly a sample of California voters.
California
Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 7/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado
Obama 45, McCain 41 (Frederick Polls, 7/22, +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
New Mexico
Obama 49, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 7/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Carolina
Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 7/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)* * * * * * *
5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).* * * * * * *
6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.* * * * * * *
7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART* * * * * * *
8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest PollsWhat is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.
The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.
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