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And like all other projections of how he'll behave, this is based on nothing but opinion.
Here's the real problem: candidates run into problems when their self-characterization contradicts their actions. If Kucinich had been a nativist, family-values candidate, then it'd have been big news that he was multi-divorced and currently married to a foreigner much younger than himself; this wasn't his schtick, so it wasn't an issue. Edwards was a self-styled champion of the poor, so living in a fine mansion was an issue, even if it was a cheap shot.
Obama is running, more than anything else, on his character, and that character is defined as noble, honorable, above-the-fray, and filled with hope for a bright and fair future as he uses new politics in a fresh outsiderish kind of way. He's dismally failing on all points. His voting record is piss-poor, and the most charitable way to characterize it is as "corporatist". He's playing the most tired form of politics (as he seemingly always has) of ducking dangerous controversies and trying to be on both sides of conflicts he can't skate on. He's whatever the audience at hand wants.
It's morally sickening to listen to so many leftists and moderates who support him literally snickering at how he's lying to the reactionaries. They're reveling in his deviousness and thrill in the joy of "getting away with it". Now, since "getting away with it" is one of the most fundamental aspects of the American character, that gives him a big constituency, but at some point, he's going to be called to account. That time is now, and he's failing.
This will be much more injurious to his candidacy than it would to an admitted pol like either Clinton: he's supposed to be above all of this mealy-mouthed maneuvering.
A quick checklist of the recent past is demoralizing, even if one holds the "undeniable truth" that he'll cheat the reactionaries out of his promises. He'll have to back down on so many promises and distance himself from so many people that his word will mean nothing.
He's for expanding the crimes for which the death penalty is applied. He's for restricting abortion. He's for expanding the idiotic, unwinnable war in Afghanistan. He's for giving Israel EVERYTHING it wants with no caveats except for a wispy and ill-defined "two state solution". He's for offshore drilling and will eventually get asked about ANWAR. He's against capping credit card interest at 30%. He's for restricting employees' rights to sue their employers. He wants to shove more religion down our throats and have us not only pay for it but endorse its supernatural assumption in the name of the United States of America, and he wants to do more of this than the reactionaries do. Then there's FISA. He's for god in South Carolina and against it in San Francisco. He's for vouchers. He's everyone to everyone, but don't worry: he's going to fuck over everyone we don't like.
I was talking with an old friend/business associate recently, and he was disappointed that Clinton lost. He's gay and a life-long Democrat, and he'll vote for Obama (as I will) but he put it this way: "It's gonna be a long hard couple of moments before I pull that lever."
Mercifully, it's a season of soft support: my conservative friends can't stand McCain, but they're going to vote for him. My lefty friends are up in arms, but will choke it back and vote for Obama anyway. What this means is that they won't be canvassing, phoning, donating, fighting or putting out much heat at all. That's not good.
People are dangerous when disappointed: the deflation of the mood is palpable and injurious.
The hoopla has been built up so much that just a simple glimpse of reality will add to the damage: Obama is NOT a good public speaker. He's passable, but his delivery is end-stopped, verbally staticky, clumsy and ringing with tired repetition of groups of threes to echo some kind of religious rabble-rousing. When people see him as he is in debates and in speeches, they'll be disappointed: the bar has been set unfortunately high.
It's frightening that so few people see the danger he's in. His whole schtick was that he was a different kind of politician, but he's straight out of central casting. Hell, he's even from CHICAGO; what were we thinking?!
I don't hold with the subversive thrill of the downtrodden who glory in the deviousness of their champion "sticking it to the man". Even if he were the somewhat-moderate that people claim he is, it's still immoral; I'm a pluralist in the same way he claims to be: I want everyone's worldview (minus the extreme crazies) to be accommodated. Mommy told me lying is bad, so I don't like it.
His whole campaign is based on his character, and he's doing so many things to screw that up.
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