History Shows Jan. Front-runner Often Does Not Win Democratic Nomination

[isbister]

Gallop Poll News Service

The presidential election primary season is upon us, with the Iowa caucus now less than two weeks away, and with the high visibility New Hampshire primary taking place in only three weeks, on Jan. 27. Not a single vote has yet been cast, but former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has already been anointed the front-runner in the race for the Democratic nomination (and is on the cover of both TIME and Newsweek magazines this week) -- based in large part on his strong showing in recent public opinion polls at both the national and state level.

But just how predictive is this type of strength in early national polling in terms of a candidate's chances of actually winning the Democratic nomination?

There have been 10 races over the last 50 years in which there was a significant contest for the Democratic nomination: 1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, and 2000. (The omitted years of 1964, 1980, and 1996 were ones in which a Democratic incumbent president ran for re-election with little or no opposition.)

The nature of these contests has changed over the years, of course, but the comparison of early national poll results with the eventual nomination outcome provides us with a track record of sorts in our attempt to answer the "prediction" question. And the answer is clear: there is no clear relationship between the candidate leading in Gallup's national trial heat surveys among Democrats at the beginning of an election year and the eventual winner of the party's nomination. In fact, in only 4 out of the 10 elections (Adlai Stevenson in 1952, John F. Kennedy in 1960, Walter Mondale in 1984, and Al Gore in 2000) did the front-runner in late December/early January win the Democratic Party's nomination. In all other instances, someone else came from behind as the primary season unfolded.

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[JohnKleeb]

1. It aint over thats for sure

[eileen_d]

2. AAAGH! IT BURNS!

Please don't tell me I can't trust the polls to accurately predict the outcome of the election! I might have to go out and vote!

OK, my "wiseass" quotient is far too hight tonight. Logging off...

[incapsulated]

3. Thanks for this

In 1988, former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart led the Democratic nomination in a mid-January Gallup survey, with 25% support among Democrats. The eventual nominee, then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, was only supported by 10% of Democrats in that poll (quite similar to the positioning of several candidates running behind Dean in recent national polling for the 2004 Democratic nomination).


Yeah, let's cancel the primaries right now, it's all over!

:)

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. Hart would have easily beaten Poppy, but they set him up

Believe me, it's no coincidence that Donna Rice is now a right wing anti pornography crusader. She was no sudden "born again", but a plant all along.

[incapsulated]

9. You're right

Hart was a bad example.

Let's do these instead:

1972 and 1976 Presidential Elections

The years 1972 and 1976 provide some of the most extreme examples of candidates coming from essentially nowhere to win their party's nominations. Both then-Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and then-South Dakota Sen. George McGovern were way down the list of Democrats' preferred candidates in Gallup's late December and early January surveys in their respective election years, but both went on to win their party's nominations.

It's important to note that the primary seasons were structured differently in the 1970s than the highly front-end loaded primaries of 2004. However, the fact that obscure candidates such as McGovern and Carter eventually won their party's nomination must provide some solace to Democratic candidates whose national poll numbers this year are also in the single digits at this point.

In 1976 Carter was at 4%.

In 1972 McGovern was at 5%.

[floridaguy]

4. That's a wonderful article . . . .

and I was already hugely optimistic after our great Clark meetup tonight.

GO CLARK GO!

[jaysunb]

6. Dream On.....

I won't taunt you, I'll only ask that you pledge to work your ass off for the democratic nominee.

[JohnKleeb]

7. I will work for the nominee and I am sure this person will

[aquart]

8. And the past is prologue?

Like the opposition party always picking up seats in Congress in the midterm elections?

[incapsulated]

10. No

Just that learning history gives you perspective, something some people would rather not have.

[TacticalPeek]

11. Some recent NH primary winners.

John Mccain
Bob Dole
Pat Buchanan
Paul Tsongas
Michael Dukakis
Gary Hart

No POTUS.

[dkf]

12. Folks, everything is different this year

thanks to Terry Mac who decided to front load the primary.

[incapsulated]

13. Since it is different

It's also difficult to say for sure what the outcome will be. We will see after NH.

[Padraig18]

14. History also shows that the candidate with the most money has never lost.

:hi:

[molly]

15. Which candidate is that?

[mouse7]

16. True, but the 8 currently trailing better get busy.

Nothing is decided, but the news keeps on getting better for Dean. More money. More endorsements. Better poll numbers.

Could somebody other than Dean win the nomination? Alsolutely. But they better hurry up and start doing whatever they are going to do to make that happen.

Time is running out. The primary schedule has never been this compacted before.

[jumptheshadow]

17. 2004's unique dynamics

This primary season could turn on a dime, depending on international or national events.

In that case you can throw both the frontrunner's status and history right out the window.