Inside Politics: new national poll

[Rowdyboy]

Dean 24%
Clark 20%
Kerry 11%

all other below. Have not been able to find a link yet, but will keep looking.

[madfloridian]

1. CNN just debunked their own poll the other day.

When will they debunk this one. Did you hear them spin on the Bush 51% Dean 46%?

Did you hear them spin that one?

[Rowdyboy]

3. Missed it. but..

NOTHING they do surprises me anymore. They will go whatever lengths necessary to insure the "re-elect our president" mantra is drilled in regularly.

[lancdem]

10. Touche

[lancdem]

9. Debunking their own poll?

Now that's funny.

[cindyw]

14. CNN ran a poll of likely voters.

Trying to insist that the poll is wrong because they left the people out who were not likely voters is to challenge the method of everyone's polling. I have looked at the posts claiming this and I see nothing in there except that they left 3% of unsure voters off the graphic. Nothing in CNN's poll that was not standard practice and I have yet to see a convincing argument that anything was wrong with it. Pollingreport just managed to confuse people who do not understand polling methods.

Also, the idea that the 3% of the voters would all break to Dean, would still not make him ahead of Bush.

[Kahuna]

39. The previous poll was CNN/Time.. This poll is...

CNN/USATODAY/GALLUP..

[madfloridian]

2. Here you go.

I will kick this for really good interest now.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=68362

[cally]

4. Wow, Great news!

Clark has improved dramatically!

[Langis]

5. Wow that's a big jump for Clark

[BootinUp]

6. Need more data!

This could be a big story.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

7. congrats Dean and Clark

it looks like our candidates are making some real progress.

Also, mad props to Dennis K. at the Iowa debate, astounding.

[madfloridian]

8. That does NOT go with this story at CNN yesterday. Yesterday at CNN.

See the other posts on their polls in this forum. They are playing games with polls and we all need to be very on guard with them. All candidates do.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/
SNIP..."Among those surveyed in the poll, the strongest anti-Dean candidate is Wesley Clark, the only Democrat who keeps Dean under 50 percent in hypothetical two-way match-ups.

But even against the former NATO commander, Dean has a 46 percent to 32 percent edge among respondents, the poll found.

With Dean getting only 22 percent of the vote when all nine candidates are listed (more than double the second-place challenger), it is tempting to assume that nearly eight in 10 registered Democrats don't want Dean as their party's standard-bearer.

But Dean clobbers the opposition in "what-if" head-to-head pairings with his strongest rivals: Dean over Lieberman, 50 percent to 32 percent; Dean over Kerry 51 percent to 29 percent; Dean over Gephardt 53 percent to 28 percent.


likely voters surveyed, Bush wins 51 percent to 46 percent for Dean; only Lieberman gets that much support from likely voters in other match-ups.

[BootinUp]

11. More info on CNN

1/3 have unfavorable opinion of Dean.

I think they said almost 40% for Dean now, might change their mind.

[cally]

12. I think they said about 60 percent

I'm looking for the actual poll. That's astouning. If true, then Dean's support is very soft and another candidate may emerge.

Clark has the big mo.

[Kahuna]

36. Woo hoo, Cally my friend! This is great news...

The only sleeper I fear right now is John Edwards. But, Clark has been handling himself very well since his initial "bobbles" (as he calls them). Dean has been making a gaffe a day. He has made more gaffes than all of the rest of the candidates put together. The early attention that was on Clark for his gaffes is now concentrated on Howard Dean like a laser light. :D

I'm suspecting lately that the media and voters will have to give Clark his props for running a good and clean campaign. He is certainly entitled to them.

[Renew Deal]

13. CNN is a scam artist. 20% for Clark is a major event

if it is real. I think Clark is great, but we should all watch out with these scam artists.

[HFishbine]

15. Contradiction

Absent any link, all I observe is that this directly contradicts what they reported yesterday:

With Dean getting only 22 percent of the vote when all nine candidates are listed (more than double the second-place challenger)..."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/

[Zynx]

16. This wouldn't surprise me if these numbers are confirmed by other polls.

Dean has gotten a lot of negative press coverage recently, some of it very nasty and Clark has gotten very positive coverage.

[madfloridian]

17. See this.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/

We all need to be careful of their spin.

[Kahuna]

37. Any positive press for Clark is deserved.. Think about it..

Clark is not a politician. But, you gotta give him props for working his butt off. He has proven that he is serious about his campaign. Clark's supporters have proven that we are serious about our support.

[BootinUp]

18. Its a Gallup/ USATODAY Poll - No Link yet

CNN talking about it on Crossfire

Bush 59%
Dean 37%

[maddezmom]

19. did you ever figure out what poll this was from?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/index.html

This is the only link I found on CNN.

[BootinUp]

20. That was yesterdays right?

I think that was a Harris Poll.

[madfloridian]

21. It is a CNN Time poll... their own poll. McAuliffe just called them on it.

:hi:

[BootinUp]

22. You are correct - this was interesting:

This is a clip from the article yesterday:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/index.html


snip...

One note of caution: The poll was conducted on December 30 and January 1, when most Americans were still in the holiday spirit and many had not returned to work.

[maddezmom]

24. LOL

I just saw mentioned on another thread, it may hve been a Gallup Poll that Rowdyboy heard about. But went to that site and didn't see anything yet. So who knows what the heck is going on. :)

[madfloridian]

26. This site?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/05/elec04.poll.democrats.poll/

McAuliffe got a clue and mentioned this when Novak tried the 20 point spin. Novak says he did not know what he was talking about.

Don't these guys read their own website.

Carville bashed Dean again. He should be ashamed.

[maddezmom]

30. no, not CNN

the Gallup Site....it wasn't there either.

[madfloridian]

31. I heard it have not seen it yet.

.

[madfloridian]

25. So being at work or home makes a difference?

That is what I am trying to figure out.

[madfloridian]

27. See, you made my point. CNN just debunked their own poll.

Because people do not think as well when called at home instead of work.

:silly:

[BootinUp]

28. Well to be honest

I did not believe it yesterday, it didn't match up with any other polls I have seen.

I am anxious to see the new gallup poll they mentioned today.

[HFishbine]

44. This is interesting too

From the same article:

With Dean getting only 22 percent of the vote when all nine candidates are listed (more than double the second-place challenger)..."

Contradicts the post that started this thred.

[Jack_Dawson]

23. See what happens when you quote LEGITIMATE polls?

Instead of Fox News's "Rasmussen" report?

[Rowdyboy]

29. I just wish I could find the damn link!

It was repeated on Crossfire (Lieberman was 4th with 10%) but I still can't find it online.

[BootinUp]

32. Transcript from Inside politics online now

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/06/ip.00.html

snip:

SCHNEIDER: But seniors are not all that thrilled with the Medicare Reform Bill, or the prescription drug plan. And the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is a physician. Speaking of Howard Dean, let's see how he's doing.

Dean is still the frontrunner, but not by much. General Wesley Clark is catching up with him. Clark is the only Democratic candidate to show momentum in the past month. The attacks on Dean from his fellow Democrats could be taking a toll on the frontrunner.

Here's where the presidential race stands right now: a blowout. President Bush leads Howard Dean by more than 20 points.

[BootinUp]

33. kick

:kick:

[thebgrkng]

51. Newbie question

do you have to type kick in a post to make it go to the top? or how does it work?

thanks

on edit, i ask a bunch of questions and sometimes they fall under the radar.

[BootinUp]

53. No prob

Any new post to a thread will make it move up. The GD forum page sorts by time of last post in thread, descending order.

[maddezmom]

34. CNN, USAToday and Gallup

now need to look for the links.

[BootinUp]

35. Transcript from Crossfire talks about Poll - link

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/06/cf.00.html

snip...

NOVAK: Terry McAuliffe, just in, just completed yesterday, the Gallup poll done for CNN/"USA Today."

Let's take a look at the Democrats: Howard Dean, 24 percent, Wes Clark, 20 percent. That's just about even. He's just about caught him. But here's one that really gets me. Head to head, George Bush and Howard Dean, 59 percent to 37 percent. We know it's early, but isn't Howard Dean in kind of a downslide?

TERRY MCAULIFFE, DNC CHAIRMAN: Well, there was a poll out yesterday, CNN/"TIME" magazine poll, had it 51 for George Bush, 46 for Howard Dean. NOVAK: I don't believe that.

MCAULIFFE: Well, it was on your show. It was five points yesterday.

And I remind you, in 19 -- we go back to 1992 this very week. Bill Clinton was down. Two polls out this week. He was down 17 and 16. We got our candidates within the margin of error.

[Rowdyboy]

38. Thank you guys,

I was beginning to wonder if I'd dreamed it.

[Kahuna]

40. You didn't dream it, Boo. I have taken to recording..

IP and Crossfire on my hard drive. That's what they said, alright.
;)

[BootinUp]

42. Dreaming of Clark as

President...can't blame you :)

[maddezmom]

45. no, they just did the same segment on Lou Dobbs

:) thanks for posting.

[incapsulated]

41. This is among *Registered Voters*

According to CNN within the last hour.

That means a lot more to me than most polls.

[HFishbine]

48. Why?

Why does it mean a lot more?

[Kahuna]

43. Comparing apples with apples, this is good news for Clark..

Clark was down drastically in the last two or three Gallup polls. This shows Clark regaining some of his early support.

[BootinUp]

47. Correct and some of the other numbers

Are quite enlightening:

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/06/ip.00.html

snip...

WOODRUFF: Candy, last I want to ask you about some new poll numbers. As you know we have this new poll out today suggesting President Bush is at a pretty good place politically, including his having an approval rating at 60 percent. But we know the numbers are not adding up as well in this poll for Howard Dean.

A little over 1/4 of Americans say they view him favorable. More than a 1/3 say they have an unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean and another 1/3 say they're not sure. And among Democrats who currently do support Dean, 65 percent of them say they might change their mind. Candy, I want to ask you, you've been on the ground for days now in Iowa. What are you picking up there in terms of the strength of support for Howard Dean?

[Kahuna]

52. Ooo. Thanks for this. I recorded IP but I haven't watched it..

Now I will! :D

[HFishbine]

46. Maybe someone "mis-heard"

Here's the transcript from Inside Politics, the CNN show cited as the source in the original post. There is no mention of polling number represented in the original post.

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/06/ip.00.html

[incapsulated]

49. I heard it on Blitzer's show and Dobbs, myself n/t

[BootinUp]

50. No - check post #35, crossfire transcript

The numbers are being shown in a graphic on CNN every hour. The origianl post is correct. This is being reported as a new CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll.

[robbedvoter]

54. Interesting story on Gallup site:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040106.asp
History Shows January Front-runner Often Does Not Win Democratic Nomination
Only 4 out of 10 January leaders over last half-century have won nomination

[Kahuna]

55. Clark is being methodical and using the Clinton '91 strategy.

If Clark comes in second in NH, he can declare himself, "The Comeback Kid, redux" just like Clinton did. :D

[robbedvoter]

56. And a link:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-06-bush-poll-usat_x.htm

[John_H]

57. Amazing what happens when people start to pay attention.

People get to know the candidates and up goes Clark.

People get to know the canidates and down goes Dean.