Poll: Which rivals will candidates throw support to when dropping out

[Bombtrack]

Since 8 out 9 probably will drop out, we might be seeing certain candidates "throw their support" to others after they want out. So who in you're view is most likely to get who's support if they decide to endorse someone and they don't get the nomination before a candidate is nominated

also THE HYPOTHETICAL IS THAT THEY ARE THE FIRST CANDIDATE TO DROP OUT, so all the other major candidates are potentials for getting endorsed

Here are my hunches, no "Bush" responses for candidates you don't like. Only fellow candidates, and preferably major candidates as who gets the endorsement.

Potential:: likely
drop-out :: endorsee

Braun ------- Dean (because dean -supporter made good point in thread about their obvious cordiality, also she's probably connected to Jesse Jackson Jr.

Clark ------- Kerry (Clark is hard to guess, but considering his feelings about needing a knowledgable cmmndr.-in-cheif, I'd say JK.

Dean -------- Clark (Although it's doubtful he'll not be one of last 2 in race if he were I'd say Clark, because it would be consistent with his anti-congress mantra)

Edwards ----- Kerry (Because I think these 2 are the closest friends in the race)

Gephardt ---- Kerry (They have a long history in congress, but who knows)

Kerry ------- Edwards (Because I think these 2 are the closest friends in the race)

Kucinich ---- Edwards (Because of Kucinich's statement on TDS about Edwards being his favorite candidate)

Lieberman --- Gephardt or Kerry (He seems to care about the war more than taxes. He's closer to gep on the war and closer to Kerry on taxes. But he's also a fellow senator with Kerry. Hard to know.

Sharpton ---- Clark (I'm pretty confident about this, remember Clark's first debate? Sharpton likes Clark)

---------------------------------------

Thoughts?

[cindyw]

1. Kucinich may back Kerry because he is the most liberal/progressive

candidate besides himself.

[the populist]

10. No he's not

Gephardt is the most progressive after Kucinich

[Bombtrack]

12. that's really more opinion than science

it depends on what you view progressive, a very non-specific adjective, to be

[thebigthink]

21. Check this out

http://members.cox.net/calscpq/

[adadem]

25. Thanks for posting

that link...verrrry interesting comparison especially with the likes of Lott and DeLay.

[blm]

24. Only in one area. Kerry's overall record closest to Wellstone of all the

candidates.

Kerry is far ahead on the environment and has a more liberal social issues record than Gep. Gep is rated a few points higher with l;abor issues.

[Ficus]

27. I think Kucinich is the closest to Wellstone

and Kucinich was even talking to Wellstone about his run during the 2002 elections - trying to get a model for his campaign from him. I only know this from what some former Wellstone staffers have told me. Wellstone was going to be supportive from what I understand. Wellstone's campaigns were truly amazing, too bad DK hasn't been able to replicate it.

[blm]

29. I said the record was closest.

In spirit DK is very close to Wellstone, but, his overall record had some conservative votes from his past support of prolife legislation and flag desecration measures.

Wellstone's rating was 3 and Kerry's was 6.

merican Conservative Union Ranking of Dem Canidates
Of course, lower is better. Congressional rankings are 2002, 2001 and lifetime. Numbers indicate the percentage of the time that the candidate voted "conservative".

Dennis Kucinich 2002-0%, 2001-20%, Lifetime-13%

John Kerry 2002-20%, 2001-4%, Lifetime-6%

John Edwards 2002-30%, 2001-16%, Lifetime-15%

Dick Gephardt 2002-8%, 2001-13%, Lifetime-12%

Joe Lieberman 2002-20%, 2001-28%, Lifetime-20%

Bob Graham 2002-20%, 2001-16%, Lifetime-18%


http://www.conservative.org/default.asp

[Ficus]

37. there are many many rankings

by many groups. I believe that if you take out Dennis' former record on choice, it'd be about the same. Maybe not.

[goodhue]

15. but Kerry will drop out before Kucinich (n/t)

[diamondsoul]

34. Do you think so?

And no, I don't mean Kucinich will be dropping out anytime soon, I was just thinking Kerry has the private funds available to stick it out to the end if need be, and I'm not so sure that would be abad thing.

I say keep as many of the most liberal candidates in the race as possible and let the centrists fall out!:P

[Renew Deal]

2. I don't think Edwards is going to be around long enough.

He will probably not last past 2/3/04 if he doesn't win anything that day. I don't think he will win anything that day.

They all depend on who is still around, but I would pick Dean, Clark, and Kerry as the final 3 unless Kerry is 3rd or worse in NH.

I think Gep and Kerry could go for Clark in the right situation.

I honestly don't know what Lieberman would do. He has been nasty to Clark and Dean. I think he might endorse Bush*. This is the fun part of this election.

[paulk]

4. What will Lieberman do?

I wonder if any of the other candidates even WANT a Lieberman endorsement!

[Bombtrack]

5. No, Lieberman wouldn't

have you ever looked at this man's voting record? he is not as close to the center as people think he is.

And I specifically asked for nobody to say someone would endorse Bush.

[BobbyJay]

3. My thoughts are that it's wrong

Only Sharpton will support Clark? :eyes:

[Bombtrack]

6. who else do you think would

Lieberman clearly doesn't care for him. Edwards and Kerry have probably made a pact with each other.

I'm just talking "first choice here. If that candidate had to drop out today, and support a major candidate.

[BobbyJay]

7. They will support whoever will have the strongest chance

Not based on some "pact".

[chimpymustgo]

8. Nobody goes to Dean - which will be critical once this gets down to two.

Carol's family and friends won't impact too much, even if she is the only one to endorse Dean.

But that will be very telling indeed - and possibly make the difference in who gets the noomination.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

9. Gephardt's support will likely go to Dean

Big Labor will likely go Dean and Gephardt has plenty of support from Labor. Plus, Gephardt would likely accept the VP slot if offered. Not sure if he would be the most logical, but rather than go after the South, Dean may opt for pulling in a couple of midwest states.

[Bombtrack]

11. Dean got some services labor support

but that doesn't mean that Gephardt is any more likely to support him

[chimpymustgo]

13. Just the opposite. Lest we forget the Dean/Gephart wars.

Along with the Dean/Kerry wars, and the Dean/Clark wars...

[mlawson]

14. Has Bob Graham endorsed anyone yet?

After all, he was the only one to drop out so far.

[Bombtrack]

17. No, but I have personally asked him to endorse Clark

at an appearance he made, after he dropped out. He said he wouldn't rule out making an endorsement "for someone like General Clark".

I also asked him formally in a letter to his senate office

[Padraig18]

16. I'll play.

Braun ===> Dean
Clark ===> Kerry, MAYBE Edwards
Dean ===> Clark
Edwards ===> Clark, MAYBE Kerry
Gephart ===> Clark
Kerry ===> Edwards
Kucinich ===> Dean
Lieberman ===> Kerry
Sharpton ===> Dean

[mlawson]

18. Edwards would go to the one with the best chance of winning,

because he wants VP or at least AG. I'm not criticizing him, BTW, from his point of view that would be rational.

But if he went to Kerry early, before Kerry 'catches on', that would be telling.

[Padraig18]

20. A lot of it depends on the order they drop out, too.

That dynamic changes a lot about who supports who.

[Bombtrack]

19. you don't think Sharpton has something against dean?

[Padraig18]

23. No, I don't.

Nothing substantive, really. If you listen to Sharpton's message, he and Dean agree on a LOT, especially about what's wrong with the Democratic Party.

[blm]

22. Kucinich would NOT go to Dean. No way.

I highly doubt Sharpton would, either.

[adadem]

26. nor would the others

except, perhaps, CMB

[diamondsoul]

36. I had to laugh over that suggestion.

:silly: Um yeah, Kucinich, the candidate running on a platform of integrity and honesty is going to back the guy with as many mis-statements under his belt as the current pResident? Sure thing....when donkies Fly!

**Note, I don't know that Dean is being deliberately dishonest, although that's my personal impression, but people stop denying it happens, PLEASE! You're not doing your candidate any favors by coddling him when he screws up.- Tangenital side-rant and then to insinuate Kucinich is an idiot because he uses a visual aid on a radio show to make a point to your candidate, well come on now, that's just petty.

[Jack_Dawson]

28. Lieberman will throw his support to Bush

Anyone really doubt this?

[JNelson6563]

30. Jack I'd like to take this opportunity to note

that I agree with your post 100%. There is a first time for everything! :toast:

Julie

[Jack_Dawson]

33. See Julie? I ain't that bad!

:toast:

[Bombtrack]

31. you broke the rules of my post

and no, he would and will not.

[diamondsoul]

35. I do.

I think if Lieberman endorses anyone it's likely to be Gep unless they both fall at the same time. I don't know if anyone has noticed but they appear to be leaving each other out of their frequent attacks on their opponents.

[thebigthink]

32. What if we had a convention and everyone came?

It wouldn't surprise me even a little bit to see all nine of these folks stay in the race right up until the convention. A couple of them would have dropped out ere now if it were just a matter of having no real chance of winning.

Kucinich and Sharpton were the only guys besides Dean who raised more money in Q3 of last year than they did in Q2. Both also have a pretty dedicated following and what they lack in numbers, they make up in spirit. Sharpton and Braun have almost no money but that hasn't stopped them yet.

Clark and Lieberman have a lot of establishment support and mainstream centrist appeal. Gephardt's got big labor and a bigger chunk of the blue collar vote than anyone else. Kerry places second in fundraising, has pretty broad spectrum appeal and a record that's almost too good to be true -- which could yet start to count for something sooner or later. Edwards has a solid following, a very credible organization and in terms of personal wealth, I believe he's the richest of the bunch. Dean's got the Starbuck's vote and obviously has more ready cash than anyone else.

If one or more of them do end up dropping out, it's not a forgone conclusion that they will endorse any of the others. Bob Graham is a case in point. I'd be surprised to see any of them endorse Dean after the scorched earth campaign he's run, but stranger things have happened. I also would not be a bit surprised to see Dean make a third-party run if he doesn't get the nomination. He seems to have hinted as much a couple of times in the last few months.

So regarding who might drop out when, and what they might do if they did, my crystal ball is on the blink.