Theories on Swing States

[27inCali]

Look at all the swing states:

let's say Iowa and New Mexico are safely ours.

These states are currently either tied or have the candidates within the margin of error from each other especially in the Midwest, rust belt region:

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

then over East there's Virginia and North Carolina

the down south in Florida

Then out west to Nevada and Colorado

So my question is, is this becoming a real deal national election? One where it's not so much a break down of certain states -but one where the over-arching arugments are nation wide and a multitude of states will swing by a handful of points on basically the same issues as all the other states and we see a sort of winner-take-all set of results in the swing states?

It kinda feels like if Barack pulls it off in one of these states, he probably takes at least most these states as a wave of momentum and new voters washing across the entire country puts him over the top.


I really think at this point, the vast majority of people who are going to support Barack are coming over to our column in the next week or so. From there on out I think this election will be about ground game and suppressing Republican voter turnout by ebarassing and demoralizing them with their own candidates.

I think it's going to be a big landside for Obama if we can hold on, it feels like all the different states are tuned in to the same issues and have a lot of the same feelings on those issues regardless of geographical location of the state or pre-existing demographics and that they are feeling really turned off by the sleaze and immaturity of the McCain campaign.

Remember a campaigns GOTV operation always relies heavily on volunteer workers -let's demoralize them with their own candidate's stupidity. I think winning from here on out will be making sure every McCain gaffe gets coverage until it crystalizes into an inescapable narrative that the media will have little or no choice about buying into. The media has a way of succumbing to narratives......

[elkston]

1. My feeling is that if Barack does well in the debates, the Republicans will never catch up

It will push Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina into our column. And a blowout will ensue.

[lutherj]

5. If Obama does well? Here's a preview of the debate:

[Essene]

13. dont assume that independents/moderates will see it your way...

While folks on the left may think Obama's knocking Mccain out, it's very possible that your average undecided american doesn't see it that way at all.

In fact, expectations are HIGHER for Obama.

The slightest pause for thought, and folks jump on him for "stammering" and "double talk." Meanwhile, Mccain can just repeat patriotic identity ploys and come out ahead, even if we may laugh at him.

[Cosmocat]

16. I keep telling people BO has ALREADY "lost" ...

and they get all pissy about it, but for the love of god, in any reasonable world Gore and Kerry "beat" the Disaster in Chief in 2000 and 2004 and the media either called them draws or DIC wins.

It is going to agitate me as much as anyone else, but it isn't going to be a surprise.

We have had one "debate" so far - saddleback. BO was thoughtful, REAL, gave a crowd that was not in his favor some honest answers they did not want to hear. McCain said he was going to kill evil or whatever, was "Direct" and "Presidential" and even spineless Ds called it a "McCain win."

[NYC_SKP]

2. The Obama campaign is staffed by mad scientists, 31 ways to win...

Unlike past campaigns that looked at a few states as solidly blue, then put all their effort into a few swing states, Obama has strategically been working a true 50 state strategy, and they've anticipated a variety of ways they could barely get to 270 EVs depending upon different outcomes.

Lots of people in blue states are traveling or phonebanking to swing states, and a carefully crafted strategy is in play with offices throughout the nation, a lot of states like NV, CO, and FL are in play and we're not giving up on them, not by any means.

If we do well everywhere we're trying, it will be a landslide, but we aren't taking anything for granted.

:kick:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

3. K&R. Lack of a spending cap is a big Democratic campaign advantage this year

When Obama's weakest demographics are identified, he'll be able to inundate them with ads during the final weeks.

For example, white women's Obama support may already be responding to increased ad spending on The View, Ellen DeGeneres, etc. Maybe the Hallmark Channel will be next!

[spag68]

4. Pa voters

It's hard for me to understand how the poll takers figure Pa to be a swing state. Even with the middle of the state being slightly conservative, they are not idiots. The population centers will be so solidly behind Obama that they will carry the day. My opinion is that the Mcsame-Stallen team will meltdown at some point, and this has already started.The latest one about Spain being an enemy and part of Latin America is only the beginning. Wait until McSame finds out that the first dude is bonking his wife, then the shit will hit the fan.

[I LIKE IKE 61]

6. ..

Reality Check for you all:

Penn = Obama.

Virginia = McCain.

North Carolina = McCain.

Indiana = McCain.

Wisconsin = Obama.

Michigan = Obama.

Ohiio = In play for either one but I'd say leaning McCain.

Florida = Obama but only slightly.

Iowa = Obama.

Colorado = Obama but only slightly.

New Mexico = McCain but he will not win it by much.

Nevada = Obama .

Obama = 7 battlegrounds.

McCain = 5 battlegrounds.

Do not etch that in stone though. Things could change either way by Nov. 4th. :)

[elkston]

7. Obama has a much better chance of winning New Mexico, than Nevada (eom)

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Exactly.

Some have suggested that the lunatic fringe biased M$M continue to stick PA in there to have a "big state" in the list to make it look like there is a more "there" than is really there.

If anything, PA has more of a record of going Dem than a NM.

[jimlup]

8. Here's the trouble in Michigan

The Kerry margin was 100,000 votes. The repukes have managed to disenfranchize that many because they have managed to have those who've lost their houses to foreclosure swept from the records... we are working hard as hell here but we've got to beat several other repuklian disenfranchizement wins too. We should carry the day but right now it is a fight!

[TheKentuckian]

9. Is there time to get registered at a new address?

I assume registration doesn't just follow you when you move?

[jimlup]

10. Yes! Register before October 6th!!!!!!!!!

Register!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Registration does NOT follow you.

[Essene]

14. The foreclosure thing is not real. The concern oughta be on the ballot initiatives

There was a rumor of ONE county bringing foreclosure lists to the polls to challenge voters, but the GOP folks there said they will not be doing this. Whether they changed their tune or not is besides the point. It wont happen.

As for ballot initiatives...

MICHIGAN
- medical marijuana
- stem cell research, constitutional amendment

Unfortunately, these 2 ballot initiatives are likely to drive the reactionary social conservatives out to vote.

[Bravo Zulu]

11. Pennsylvania is a blue state!

[Essene]

12. There are also 112+ _BALLOT INITIATIVES_ in 30 states...

I think maybe i oughta make a new thread on swing state ballot initiatives since i cant find a place with it centralized.

I think there are certainly going to be local issues causing a stir this Nov, and i think Dems need to understand the implication of this wave of ballot initiatives in terms of potentially galvanizing rove-style reactionary turn out from the social conservative base.

Gay rights
Affirmative Action
Abortion
Animal Rights
Environment
Etc.

http://www.ballot.org/pages/on_the_ballot

COLORADO
- A civil rights constitutional amendment
- Defines life as starting at fertilization

FLORIDA
- Gay marriage, constitutional marriage
- Constitutional amendment pertaining right of aliens ineligible for citizenship to possess real property

OREGON
- English only

MICHIGAN
- medical marijuana
- stem cell research, constitutional amendment

MINNESOTA
- Environmental policy, constitutional amendment

MISSOURI
- English only