Lawrence O'Donnell: Worries that Dean could alienate the whole country

[kerry-is-my-prez]

even lose California. Up until now - he had been saying that Dean could win.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3889891/
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you this, Lawrence, about this election. Do you think that California is in the bag for the Democrats?

O‘DONNELL: Yes, I think it is, unless, somehow, you get a Howard Dean nominee who just completely alienates the entire country. And I—you know, I increasingly think that is actually possible with the Dean candidacy.

And, you know, I have revised my predictions about him upwards steadily. And now I‘m starting to look at it and think he has probably hit the ceiling. If you add up all of his numbers now in these polls, he‘s at 22. Kucinich is at 5. Sharpton is at 5. If you add up that entire vote, meaning, wait for Sharpton and Kucinich to drop out, Dean maxes out at 30 percent.

If you look at Kerry in that “TIME” magazine poll with 10 percent and add up everybody who basically agrees with him underneath him, right down to Edwards, Gephardt, Lieberman, that adds up to 40 percent. There‘s a 40 percent vote now in the Democratic Party against Howard Dean, having evaluated him for many.... It‘s very simple. That‘s what this election is going to be about. And this guy is going to max out at 30 percent of Democrats.

FINEMAN: Well, I don‘t disagree with Lawrence‘s analysis about the party. Still waiting for somebody to coalesce around the un-Dean, whoever that is going to be. But once that all falls away...

[Terwilliger]

1. well this is all well and good, but...

why is Dean still leading? why did he come to the lead in the first place?

So, the conclusion by the logic of the mainstream Dems that say the Dean candidacy is more smoke than fire, is that Dems who support Dean are stupid, and/or the "mainstream" candidates who are losing badly to Dean are even more stupid.

So, which is it?

[BobbyJay]

3. Why did primary people support McGovern? Or Mondale? Or Dukakis?

And not Glenn? or Hart? Or Gore (in '88)?

[Terwilliger]

8. I don't know

what's your point? Are you saying that Dean supporters are stupid?

[picus9]

13. Stupid ? No.

Myopic yes.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. They're just kids with stars in their eyes. We've seen the same thing

with McGovern, Nader, Dukakis. It happens every election....

[Terwilliger]

29. hmm...Bill Bradley is a kid?

Al Gore is starry-eyed?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

33. Al Gore knows where to get votes from. Bill Bradley is an adult with stars

in his eyes.

[Le Taz Hot]

76. Honey, at 48

I'm no "kid." And with a couple of college degrees under my belt (4.0 GPA) I'm pretty confident I'm not stupid either.

[unfrigginreal]

5. It's not just the stupid that support him but the riffraff as well

but in the end the mainstream "sensible" Democrats will accept this because it gives the party a chance to harness the energy of their less reasonable, fanatical participants much like the right has used the anti-abortion fanatics to accomplish their ends.

[Terwilliger]

7. yes, but when all this energy has been muted by the "mainstream"...

what makes you think the energy will still be there?

Whatever Howard Dean is all about, the Democratic party is in disarray, because it can find no cogent message with which to sway the masses.

[unfrigginreal]

15. I don't think it will be there if the "mainstream" ...

keeps chipping away at it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. It will be in dissarray either way. The party is divided, We're damned if

have Dean in there and damned if we don't - I'm afraid.

[Tweed]

56. Not damned

You should check out Wesley Clark. He is a leader and can appeal to all Americans. Clark is the only candidate who can take down GW. www.clark04.com my friend

[Forkboy]

71. let me guess

you're one of the "sensible" ones?

Not too condescending a post....and I'm not even a Dean guy.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

19. The voters in the Primary are different from those in the Gen Election

Also - the non-Dean voters are split between the #2-5 candidates Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman and Edwards.

We even have polls here on DU that show that Kerry people would go to Clark and vice-versa. The same for Gephardt and Edwards.

[retyred]

57. Why does dean only have 22-25%

the analysis is right on.


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[picus9]

2. As more people drop out, Dean will lose ground

I think Clark or Kerry have a decent chance of being the nom.

[okieinpain]

6. please not kerry. we're doooooomed if it's kerry.

[picus9]

11. We're not doomed if it's Dean?

Are you going to be one of thos epeopel who wakes up on teh day after Bush wins 49-1 saying, i can't believe he won! I don't know anybody who voted for him.

[mlawson]

12. He is probably the one the DNC want.

This might be the 'fix'. As in, 'the fix is in'.

I have said now for months and months that this would happen.

[KoKo]

4. I peg him as a Kerry/Clark....O'Donnel. One of Matthews Whores........

Who cares what he thinks if you support Dean. If you are a Kerry/Clark or Clark/Kerry.....then that's okay....Feel good abboud it!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

27. He's been talking up Dean for months. Now all of a sudden he's bad..

typical.

[Raya]

42. Some people are willing to face facts.

[Cha]

9. I don't care what the requisite media

whores say about Dean. I saw what they did to Gore in 2000 and I'm not even interested. they can just go about their usual chit chat and it means zilch in the big scheme of things.

[Don Claybrook]

10. Alienate the whole country? At least we still have Guam.

Don't we?

Someone was talking yesterday about cognitive dissonance. I think we have a case of that with this story. Some idiot goes on Hardball and says the entire country is against the frontrunner (meanwhile, back at the bat cave, Bush Jr. screws up everything he's ever touched).

Come on, non-Dean supporters, pinch-hit for Dean just this once. I'd be relieved to hear a non-Dean person say this guy is nuts.

Thanks.

[Nay]

52. OK, I'm not a Dean person and I think this guy is nuts.

I think that all the media whores know that their job now is to muddy the waters, confuse as much of the American public as possible, jerk people around with polls, etc. And that's what this is. After several Dem primaries we will have a better idea who is doing well.

[GalleryGod]

69. Lose Cali?? WoW! Can He CARRY VERMONT?

McGovern lost South Dakota...possible in the Great W 'Slide of '04.

OCTOBER GRAVITAS: Where is it?

:dunce:

[oasis]

14. O'Donnell, a savvy moderate sometimes appears on "The McLaughlin Group"

because he is more left leaning.

[BobbyJay]

16. So that makes what he says invalid?

:shrug:

[oasis]

17. I agree to what O'Donnell said, I was just adding to his bona fides so

that the Dean supporters wouldn't dismiss him as a rightwing operative.

[BobbyJay]

20. Gotcha nm

[GalleryGod]

70. Larry O is good! Why is CARVILLE heading up the ANTI Dean Spinners.

B/C Mary-Marriage-Bed has told his that The Gov'nuh is A GIFT FROM G.O.P. HEAVEN, that's why.

He smelled him "close-up" in a "K Street" episode.

[Cheswick2.0]

18. Oh GAG ME!!!! LOL

Is this what the brilliant minds inside the beltway are concocting now? If you add the poll numbers of all the people who argree with Kerry(kind of sort of) to Kerry's poll numbers you get one candidate who can beat Dean! Is this guy smoking crack? This is like Rush saying that if you throw out the votes of African Americans Bush wins the election in a land slide.

[Tweed]

55. Not quite

Based on how the campaign is going, I would say it's a safe assumption to say that if you don't support Howard Dean now, you aren't going to in the future. The coverage for him has been amazing. Dean's numbers are big in the polls because people have heard his name, as people begin to actually look into the campaign when the election day comes they will probably switch evenly among the candidates or support real leaders like Wesley Clark or Dick Gephardt. As for your Rush thing... I'm not sure how that racks up at all...

[Hep]

21. that's OK, the hundreds of thousands of us who help Dean

will go out and form our own city. Dean will be our mayor!

[chimpymustgo]

26. LOL - just support the Dem nominee in the mean time!

nt

[kerry-is-my-prez]

32. I think most people have agreed to support whoever the nominee is

I actually think that there were more Dean supporters here who said that they would "bolt" from the party.

[Hep]

36. 87% sure I'll do that

but it fluctuates!

[Scott Lee]

23. Who the hell is Lawrence O'Donnell, and why do I care?

Just asking.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

28. He a rather Liberal Dem. He is always detached. You never hear

him supporting a candidate. I've never heard him be partisan. THAT'S why we should care what he says. He's a political consultant and is usually right on the money....

[Cheswick2.0]

31. maybe we should care what he says

but I don't. He sounds like he's lost his marbles.

[dave29]

34. He's a "Hollywood" Dem

he consults for the "West Wing". Ironically, Martin Sheen endorsed Dean.

[Scott Lee]

37. He sounds like another emptyheaded Sunday TV pundit to me.

And that's where I put his insignificant musings.

*flushing sound*

[colonel odis]

25. edwards is my first choice,

but i'm about fed up with the party establishment and the media establishment dissin' dean. he represents a genuine alternative to party hacks like kerry, gephardt, and lieberman, and that's driving the boys with the money bags wild. they can't control him and that freaks them out. given the party's recent fiascos in 2000 and 2002, however, anything that's a rock in their shoe is just fine by me.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

30. Don't fall for that meme. The reason they're scared is because Dean

has some very bad habits. Mainly, sticking his foot in his mouth and shooting off his mouth. It may be charming to the "kids" but to us adults it's downright scary.

I admit that Dean appealed to me when I first saw him - but the minute I heard about all of the experts and consultants who were saying that he can't win the general election and I heard about all of the gaffes he made as Governor and then saw all the gaffes he made in the Debates, etc. - I dropped him like a hot potato.

[oasis]

35. Dean's a "loose cannon" for sure, but that's his "attraction" so I'm told.

[Cheswick2.0]

43. I am told that having a stick up their butt

is the attraction of several of the other candidates.
I never did understand people who always have their scaredy pants on.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

47. Who was sooo scared that they had to go running to the Party boss?

Who's always running around whining and crying about how everyone picks on him. I've never seen such a whiner - it's always "poor little Howard the victim." Job.

What this really is is manipulative behavior. THAT'S how Dean gets the money from the kids. Oh poor me - mean Tim Russert beat up on him - send him more money.

Do any of you ever stop to think that maybe he screws up on purpose? I'm beginning to think that he does. No-one can possibly "screw up" as much as he does... He's not THAT stupid. He says some crazy thing - the media and/or the other candidates call him on it - and "bingo" money flows in. His poll numbers go up because he looks like he being picked on.

[spooky3]

54. I believe he said 1/4 of his contributions were from the young

Who's contributing the other 3/4?

I wish he would be more reflective too but I have yet to hear of a gaffe that is so extraordinarily Trent Lott-ish that it makes him unqualified. If the public is so accepting of the gaffes and worse, bad policies, of the present administration, I just don't think they are going to get too worried about superficial errors from Dean or anyone else.

[hey2370]

38. Why do you have a brain, anyway?

Just turn on the tube and let all them smart people tell you what to believe.

"Wow, if all them smarties don't like Dean, he must be bad news! Better to vote for whoever they tell me is mainstream, like that Lieberman guy or that guy who used to be in the Army or Marines or whatever."

[kerry-is-my-prez]

39. There's some consultants who know hwat they're talking about and some

who don't. If you stick around long enough - you know who to pay attention. When ALL of the consultants say a candidate can't win THAT'S when I take notice.

This is what's happened here....

[jonnyblitz]

40. you are right, we "kids" don't have a clue, we are just rebelling.

But I am much relieved to know I will always be able to count on you to set me straight on what is a "meme" (whatever you don't agree with) and what is a valid opinion or point of view. :puke:

on edit: this was supposed to be a reply to pst #30

[kerry-is-my-prez]

48. When you've been watching politics for a long time you develop a nose for

b.s.

[Forkboy]

73. you're right

I'm smelling some now.

Try just one post without the condescending attitude please.

[Forkboy]

72. "us adults"

:eyes:

[HFishbine]

45. Colonel, it's not just the money bags

It's the fearmongers who don't want you to think for yourself because, you know, anybody who supports Dean is not an "adult."

[spooky3]

53. Hi, Colonel Odis, welcome to DU!

[Andromeda]

68. Right on!...

The DLC and the DNC can't control Dean and that's exactly what pisses them off.

Welcome to DU, Colonel!:toast: :hi:

[the populist]

41. O'Donnell is dead wrong.

1. Sharpton's supporters will probably not go towards Dean. Most of Sharpton's supporters as far as rnadom polls are concerned are black. Dean has minimal support among African Americans.

2. Kucinich's supporters are not going to flock towards Dean. O'Donnell is perpetuating the lie that Dean is a true liberal. Only those who support Kucinich only because of his peaceful agenda would go to Dean. Gephardt is Kucinich-lite as far as all other issues are concerned.

3. Gephardt does not agree with Kerry.

This guy has such a simplistic and badly researched view that it's depressing.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

51. You forget that in politics "perception is reality"

Dean is "percieved" as being a liberal because he "acts" like one. (angry, "anti-establishment" =liberal).

The funny thing is that if there is any candidate out the bunch who is "establishment" it is Howard Dean. He was very pro-corportion in Vermont, still hob-nobs with his country club pals - speaks at their little racist, anti-semitic (and I suspect anti-women) club.

[the populist]

58. Yes, Dean is the establishment. Agreed. n/t

[dave29]

65. "perception is reality"

only if you go around believing pundits. This campaign has nothing to do with pundits. Clearly. They still can't figure it out.

[Forkboy]

74. What racist,anti-semetic clubs are those?

[onecitizen]

44. Larry's a dunce.......

so is Carville, Begala, Fenn. All of them are flip city and should retire. We've moved on.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

49. Right.... and be replaced by kidz-are-us consulting firm - no thanks

think I'll stick with the adults.

[dansolo]

66. Like the ones who lost big time in 2002?

The "adults" (note that was also the description used to describe the Bush administration) had a horrible strategy all the way through 2002, and ended up with an unprecidented loss in a midterm election. For all the talk about MCGovern and Dukakis, why doesn't anybody remember the conventional wisdon that the party that is not in power is supposed to GAIN seats in a midterm election?

[adamrsilva]

46. Anyone who lets pundits tell them who or not to support

is an idiot.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

50. I will resist responding to that - don't want to get a deleted post

n/t

[oasis]

61. Are you saying that voters should limit their data sources on a candidate?

There are many out there who carefully consider information drawn from many sources before making important decisions. Pundits can be helpful if you take in to account their biases.

[Raya]

59. Kevin Phillips no pundit. Just Agreed Dean a weak candidate vs Bush

[oasis]

62. Expect Kevin Phillips to get raked over the coals by the faithful. (eom)

[worldgonekrazy]

60. Again, no REASON

I'm just supposed to take this guy's word for it because he is on TV? I don't see one single reasoned argument why Dean can't win. Not one. Its fucking bullshit is what I call it.

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WiseMen]

67. Shapton is definitely Quick on his feet.

[John_H]

64. kick. More loyal Dems see the light.

[Forkboy]

75. Are Dean supporters unloyal Dems?

they've already been called kids and non-sensible in this thread.Just wondering if we can add disloyal Dems to the list.

[w4rma]

77. This analysis is bull. It's based on spliting the party into two halves.

When in actuallity the party has, generally, similar positions across the board. One can find many things to agree with among each and every candidate. One can also find many things to disagree with among each and every candidate.