Attn. Dems: Dean can’t beat Bush

[wyldwolf]

Warning: Anti-Dean editorial from Mark S. Mellman, president of The Mellman Group who has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982.

He says he works for one of Dean's rivals. Which one?

My opinion isn't that Dean CAN'T beat Bush, but rather at this point it is unlikely (same for the other Dems) unless Bush suffers some major setbacks.

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A paradox is haunting Democrats. Commentators repeatedly note that, as much as anything else, Democrats want a candidate who can beat George Bush. Yet the current front-runner is the Democrat least likely to succeed in removing Bush from the White House. (OK, I work for one of his opponents, but facts are facts.)

Howard Dean accomplished some amazing things last year for which he deserves tremendous credit, but they have come at a cost. While the former Vermont governor is turning Democrats on, he is turning off swing independents.

Perhaps the pre-eminent symbol of Dean’s severe general-election problem is his standing in New Hampshire. Nowhere, outside of Vermont, is he better-known. Nowhere else has Dean spent as much money, time and energy courting voters. He has catapulted himself into a significant lead in the Democratic primary.

But recent polling makes it clear that despite all the ads, despite all the time he has spent and the press coverage he has generated, Dean is in desperate straits in a New Hampshire general election where he trails Bush by an astounding 27 points (57 percent Bush, 30 percent Dean). And this is a state Bill Clinton won and a state Al Gore lost by only 7,211 votes. But Dean has alienated all those who do not identify as Democrats. Less than 1 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean, while 14 percent of Democrats support Bush. Most troubling is the fact that Dean garners only 11 percent among swing independents (undeclared) while Bush gets 63 percent of this vote. Moreover, this poll predates the capture of Saddam Hussein.

Democrats who want a general election winner should think twice.

USA Today’s cartoonist summed up Democrats’ dilemma last week with a picture of a thousand dollar check written to the Dean campaign by Bush-Cheney ’04. The memo tells Dean to simply “keep talking!!!!”

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/010704.aspx

[Jack_Dawson]

1. This is news?

:boring:

[DoveTurnedHawk]

2. OUCH

But recent polling makes it clear that despite all the ads, despite all the time he has spent and the press coverage he has generated, Dean is in desperate straits in a New Hampshire general election where he trails Bush by an astounding 27 points (57 percent Bush, 30 percent Dean). And this is a state Bill Clinton won and a state Al Gore lost by only 7,211 votes. But Dean has alienated all those who do not identify as Democrats. Less than 1 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean, while 14 percent of Democrats support Bush. Most troubling is the fact that Dean garners only 11 percent among swing independents (undeclared) while Bush gets 63 percent of this vote. Moreover, this poll predates the capture of Saddam Hussein.

DTH

[demothinker]

5. "Ouch" nothing...

"But Dean has alienated all those who do not identify as Democrats. Less than 1 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean, while 14 percent of Democrats support Bush. Most troubling is the fact that Dean garners only 11 percent among swing independents (undeclared) while Bush gets 63 percent of this vote. Moreover, this poll predates the capture of Saddam Hussein."


I have two problems with the above quote, which basically renders it meaningless to me:

- The less than 1 percent GOP vote for Dean is meaningless without knowing the percentage who would vote for Clark or someone else other than Dean.
- Dean probably garners only 11% among independents because heck, even barely half of democrats are paying attention to the democratic primaries so far, so probably very few independents are; so it's likely that few independents know much about him.

[BobbyJay]

3. But but but.....

people will vote for tax increases!!

[Democrats unite]

4. I think this month is going to make a difference in the...

Dean campaign. And the Dean campaign is not going to like it.

[Closer]

8. Ya think so huh?

Brrr, you frighten me.

:eyes:

[Hep]

6. Your opinion (and Mellman's) is duly noted

Thanks for the contribution.

[dorktv]

7. Dean is polling at 46% in Time.

with Bush at 51%

[JPJones]

14. That poll has been retracted n/t

[dorktv]

15. When was this?

[ant]

16. more info please

I'm curious about this, too. Thanks.

[dorktv]

17. I just saw it in my Time mag.

I get Time because sometimes they cover my favorite directors.

[Padraig18]

18. No, it hasn't been 'retracted'. What an absurd statement! n/t

[SlavesandBulldozers]

9. ok

so somebody who works for an opponent of Dean says Dean can't win?Shocked, Shocked!

"Yet the current front-runner is the Democrat least likely to succeed in removing Bush from the White House. (OK, I work for one of his opponents, but facts are facts.) "

I'm willing to guess the opponent the author works for is. . . drum roll. . . George W. Bush! Even if I believed that Dean couldn't beat Bush, the fact that I am a democrat first would rule out saying it.

[Closer]

10. Uh Oh People

Newsflash! Wyldwolf thinks Dean can't beat Bush either.

Better call home the troops. We might as well stop campaigning now and put our war hero Wesley Clark in charge of our party!

[wyldwolf]

12. Look! You're learning already!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=71841&mesg_id=72148&page=

[HFishbine]

11. Ignore (n/t)

[ClintonTyree]

13. Headline news here...................

:eyes: another, "Dean can't win" thread. What next? A General Clark is our ONLY hope thread? Color me uninspired.

[Tweed]

23. General Wesley Clark is our only hope

You know it DumpGump. Wesley Clark is the only man who can beat Bush.

[quaker bill]

19. Opinion duly noted

as poorly informed, lacking in vision, and overtly partisan.

[isbister]

20. RE: Dean can’t beat Bush

He says he works for one of Dean's rivals. Which one?

He says he works for Kerry near the bottom of the article.

[Zinnola]

21. A hill pundit and your opinion??

I guess I will just whip out my teas leaves and crystal ball for futher predictions now.

[wyldwolf]

22. Since you're new, I'll explain it to you...

This is a General DISCUSSION forum. "Discussion" denotes expressing opinions in the overall discussion of topics (as opposed to a General FACT forum.)

You're welcome. :)

[John_H]

24. Mellman. Carville. Phillips. Washington.

Say dean can't win.

Faux. The NY Post. Paula Zahn. Tweety. Russert. They just looooooooove dean.


The workd has turned upside down! The former media whores are cured! They have been replaced by ex-smart Dems

[xultar]

25. Fine $5.00 to Clark campaign n/t

[dave29]

26. Al Gore thinks Dean can beat Bush,

so does Bill Bradley
so does http://www.endorsementsfordean.com/cgi-bin/dbman/db.cgi?db=default&uid=default&view_search=1