USA Today Poll: Bush's support building (and Clark gains on Dean)

[BootinUp]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-06-bush-poll-usat_x.htm


WASHINGTON — President Bush begins the election year with the national mood improving, his support on key issues building and his Democratic opponents struggling to gain an edge, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who pulled away from the Democratic field in early December, has lost his lead over No. 2 Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander. Dean slipped from a 21-point gap to 4 points, effectively a tie within the margin of error.

......

We have a race for nomination now! Bush will be beat

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Dean is like the football team ahead in the 4th quarter

praying to God the clock runs out before the other team goes SMACKDOWN on them.

[BobbyJay]

3. Clark = Patriots in '02

Don't count him out.

[Jack_Dawson]

5. Clark = Seabiscuit

[Scott Lee]

2. USA Today (Gannet) is a RW source, you know

Gannet Publishing is a RW propaganda spiggot, and also big contributors to the Bushies.

I'd say that compromises any trust in a thing they report.

[adamrsilva]

4. These poll results are awful

Not for a second do I believe Bush is that popular or Dean that unpopular, especially when it is totally inconsistent with that other CNN poll that they don't like to show around.

[BootinUp]

10. Question

What other poll has ever shown a dem candidate, any candidate with 15 points of Bush?

NONE...except that one CNN/TIME/Harris Interactive poll Dec 30-Jan 1.

The reason they are discounting it, is because it has questionable data. It had Dean with 12% Repub support. There is no reason not to discount it. Find any poll that supports it and I will give it some consideration.

[HFishbine]

14. Ah-hem

"What other poll has ever shown a dem candidate, any candidate with 15 points of Bush?"

There is the Newsweek poll of Dec. 19. Bush 53, Dean 40.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[BootinUp]

17. oops- but still

The question in that poll might be different, it asks the respondent if they are undecided which way do they lean.

Anyways, it still aint 5 pts. I stand by my assertion that the Harris,CNN,Time poll is more an anomaly. It was taken over the holidays when people are on vacation. just unreliable IMHO.

[HFishbine]

21. If anomolies are your criterea

Don't you feel compeled to apply the same to a poll that shows a 17 point decline in Dean's lead -- something out of sync with all other polls?

[BootinUp]

33. Some more poll data for fun

Harris/CNN/TIME - likely voters - (Bush%-Dean%) Nov. 12%, Jan 5% - Trend: -7

ABC/WP/TNS - registered voters - (Bush%-Dean%) Oct. 14%, Dec. 18% - Trend: +4

Newsweek - registered voters - (Bush%-Dean%) Nov. 4%, Dec. 7%, Dec, 13% - Trend +11

CNN/USAToday/Gallup - registered - (Bush%- Dean%) Nov. 9%, Dec. 8%, Dec. 23%, Jan. 22% - Trend +11


The Harris/CNN/TIME poll is the only poll above showing a tightening trend between Bush and Dean. (Some polls had more than one Dec data point.)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

(edited to correct Jan. Gallup data)

[windansea]

6. go wes!

:thumbsup:

[madfloridian]

7. This is the one CNN tried not to mention. That is lying by omission.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=68362

Nothing changed that fast.

[BobbyJay]

8. I like rice

[jpgpenn]

9. Thanks for the post

:toast:

[Jerseycoa]

11. Interesting Favorables

"Voters view Clark more favorably than Dean, fueling charges by the other candidates that Dean cannot beat Bush. Clark is the only Democrat with an overall positive rating.

"Just 28% of adults view Dean favorably; 39% view him unfavorably. Clark rates 37% favorable and 26% unfavorable."

[maddezmom]

12. thanks again Jim4Wes

:) Things looking better for Clark.

[Melinda]

13. Again, that article LIES - how quickly and easily some are satiated!

USA Today has not published a poll since mid December.

Someone, anyone - please prove me wrong and provide new/current USA Today polling data to support the articles assertion.

Go to: http://www.usatoday.com/ and click on latest polls. You'll get: http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-11-17-bush-poll.htm

2. Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004.

Dean Lieb-erman Clark Gep-hardt Kerry Ed-wards Sharp-ton Braun Kuc-inich Gra-ham None/ other/ no opin.
Democrats/Democratic Leaners Margin of error: ±5 percentage points
2003 Dec 15-16 25 14 11 8 7 7 6 3 2 -- 17
2003 Dec 11-13 31 12 13 8 9 5 5 3 1 -- 13
3 Dec 5-7 22 10 17 13 7 7 4 5 2 -- 13 (data relied on in article)
2003 Nov 14-16 16 14 16 12 10 5 4 5 3 -- 15
2003 Nov 10-12 16 15 13 11 9 9 3 4 3 -- 17

Democrats/Democratic Leaners who are Registered to Vote Margin of error: ±6 percentage points
2003 Dec 15-16 27 12 12 7 7 6 6 3 2 -- 18
2003 Dec 11-13 33 12 11 9 10 4 5 2 1 -- 13
2003 Dec 5-7 25 10 17 14 7 7 3 5 2 -- 10
2003 Nov 14-16 17 13 17 13 9 6 5 4 3 -- 13
2003 Nov 10-12 17 15 14 12 10 7 3 4 3 -- 15

To see the Bush/others differentials, look at questions 3 and 4 - and pay close attention to the dates. Again, that's the data used in the article.

The saddest part about all of this nonsense is that some just swallow what is fed to them -- what ever happened to objectively analyzing and verifying the actual data?

STOP IT!

[BootinUp]

15. What are you talking about?

The raw poll data for the new article hasn't been published yet. Expect to see it at www.gallup.com within 1 or 2 days.

[Melinda]

16. Oh really? And you learned that where?

From your link:

WASHINGTON — President Bush begins the election year with the national mood improving, his support on key issues building and his Democratic opponents struggling to gain an edge, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.

-----

Show me where the article claims the data is from a a NEW poll, please. Show me where the article (or any other site) states a NEW poll will be forthcoming within a few days, please.

[BootinUp]

18. Check the CNN transcripts today they report this poll as well

Transcript for Crossfire Jan 06

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/06/cf.00.html

snip

NOVAK: Terry McAuliffe, just in, just completed yesterday, the Gallup poll done for CNN/"USA Today."

Let's take a look at the Democrats: Howard Dean, 24 percent, Wes Clark, 20 percent. That's just about even. He's just about caught him. But here's one that really gets me. Head to head, George Bush and Howard Dean, 59 percent to 37 percent. We know it's early, but isn't Howard Dean in kind of a downslide?

[Melinda]

25. IF Nofacts claim is true, then the poll & its data will be forthcoming

as you stated above. However, I won't believe any of this until I see the actual data for myself.

So pardon me if I don't trust RW rags, the corporate media, or their lapdogs, most particularly those such as Nofacts - one such that I consider a traitor to this country. Remember Valerie Plame.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Melinda]

23. Good grief, an ad hominem is your only rebuttal?

Look at the lead in line to the article in question. Now, look at the source publication. Next, identify all the pertinent data needed to draw the OP conclusion.

When was the poll taken?
Who was polled?
What was asked?
What was the moe?

Are all four elements that validate the assertion this "poll" is accurate present? If not, how can you assert the poll to be valid?

Or is it that White is really Black, that Up is actually Down, that War truly is Peace, and the US really is Oceania.

:eyes:

[jmaier]

24. Melinda, chill

I posted the link below earlier -- no response from you. This is the CNN article describing the results, including date conducted, results, # surveryed, MOE. I'm sure the formal poll methodolgy will be online within a day or two.

The polls have oscillated for months now. Why does this appear to upset you so?

[Melinda]

26. Back at you.

No apology from me to you for not responding earlier... I'm cooking dinner and juggling 3 little ones as well. You all just have to wait your turn.

I'll look at your post and get back to you in a few minutes.

[jmaier]

30. LOL

I wasn't chiding you for not looking at the link specifically. It was more along the lines of why don't you wait and see if there is such a poll before launching an angry diatribe against its alleged results. The folks were quoting what they heard on several CNN programs (Crossfire, Lou Dobbs, etc.)

It's not a constitutional mandate that they immediately be able to produce a link, with exquisite detail, before making a post around here. On the other hand, if it were, a lot of this BS would be curtailed!

peace.

[jmaier]

19. Here's the link to the CNN

report on the poll conducted from Friday through Monday Jan 2nd-5th

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/06/elec04.prez.poll/

Howard Dean 24% (27% prev)
Wesley Clark 20% (12% prev)

MOE +/- 5

You should have a bit more patience before lashing out at folks.

[Melinda]

27. Alert on me then.

And make sure you paste where I supposedly "lashed out" at anyone.
Didn't happen.

The post I responded to contained a link to an article wherein the data was lacking. The link you posted is not the same, now is it?

I stand by my original statement to the original poster, and I will continue to be skeptical of any purported "data" that is lacking in criteria needed to verify its authenticity.

[WI_DEM]

22. big difference between this poll and the recent

Time Maganzine poll which just came out over the weekend. I really think Bush ranks superficially higer in Gallup polls.

[CatWoman]

29. Everyone here has been saying that for quite a while

Zogby's polls provide a more realistic snapshot.

[jmaier]

32. according to Dean supporters.

:-)

[CatWoman]

34. I don't know who I'm supporting right now

but check out the Washington Post message boards. These responses are to the story that * got a bounce in the polls from Saddam's capture:

http://forums.washingtonpost.com/wppolitics/messages/?msg=3553

click on the Bush Gets Year-End Boost in Approval <433 new> discussion

[in_cog_ni_to]

28. He's movin' on up!

This is fantastic news!

[GOPBasher]

31. Yay!

Soldiers dying in Iraq, a $500-billion deficit, environmental destruction that will cause untold human suffering, cuts in veterans' benefits, cuts in education, and the public thinks Bush is doing a good job. That's just super!

[Melinda]

35. Your poll is out - here's the graph and the info:

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds former Vermont Gov. Howard no longer holding a commanding lead among Democrats nationally in the race for his party's presidential nomination, as Democrats who are registered to vote appear to be taking a second look at retired Gen. Wesley Clark. After leading Clark by 15 and 21 points in two December polls that asked Democrats whom they supported for their party's nomination, Dean's advantage has shrunk to just 4 points in the Jan. 2-5 national survey (24% vs. 20%) -- within the poll's margin of error.

This tightening of the race among Democrats nationally mostly results from increased support for Clark, rather than a decline in support for Dean. Clark gained eight points over the last two weeks, while Dean lost three points, and the number of undecided Democrats declined by three points.

-snip-

Clark's current level of support is similar to what he enjoyed upon entering the race in September. At that time, however, he was the clear front-runner, leading Dean 22% to 13%. Dean had overtaken Clark by early December, and furthered his advantage following a high-profile endorsement from Al Gore. (The current poll was taken before former New Jersey Sen. and presidential candidate Bill Bradley's endorsement of Dean on Tuesday.)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040107.asp

----------------

Looking at the graph, it would appear they met last October and November as well. The race is tightening, good luck to all our candidates (LIEberman doesn't count tho :evilgrin:)

[BootinUp]

36. thanks Melinda!

Yes, good luck to all our candidates.

[Melinda]

37. You're very welcome Jim.

:toast:

[Clark4VotingRights]

38. Stop that Jim4Wes

Polls should only be referenced on DU if they prop up Dean!

Shame...

[chimpymustgo]

39. Kick!

nt

[beaconess]

40. Oops - there goes USA Today . . .

They have declined to kiss Dean's butt, so they must be added to the evil, unreliable anti-Dean meanie list.

[Clark4VotingRights]

41. I love this one...

"WASHINGTON - Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who
pulled away from the Democratic field in early December, has lost his lead over No. 2 Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll shows.

Dean slipped from a 21-point gap to 4 points, effectively a tie within the margin of error...Dean's slip and uncertainty among Democrats suggests that the nomination fight is still fluid.
...Other than Clark, Democratic candidates made few gains in the USA TODAY poll in the past month.

Voters view Clark more favorably than Dean, fueling charges by the other candidates that Dean cannot beat Bush. Clark is the only Democrat with an overall positive rating."

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/index.php?page=national&story_id=010704a1_poll

[snyttri]

42. There's hope for the Party and danger for the spoiled frat boy(s).