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More so than most certainly. NJ is usally a very dependable Democratic stronghold. That frequently breeds insider based politics. Insider based politics is not an evil thing, but it does often mean that people move in relative lock step once a decision is reached. I for one do not underestimate the significance of Deans victory lining up that slate of Party leaders in NJ.
In this particular case I actually know a bit about what actually happened in NJ because, as chance would have it, I have a customer from my business who has become a friend, and he is politically close to McGreevey. I do not want to break any confidence here so I will remain somewhat vague, but what I will say is true. I fully understand if some may question all or part of my following comments based on that need to remain vague, so take it with a grain of salt or reject it if you wish.
My friend is now "officially" backing Dean because he is politically alligned with the Govorner. For what it is worth he personally believes that Clark would make a stronger candidate for the Democratic Party than would Dean. I started talking to him about Clark before Clark declared. I was given to believe that Clark had a very serious chance to win the backing of the Gov., and that, in the end, what swung it to Dean was Gore's endorsement of Dean.
As you can imagine, I was extremely disappointed, and I actually received a "condolences call" from my friend during which we briefly talked about some of the behind the scenes maneuvers that had taken place. I gather that Gore's move was unexpected, and it changed a number of political caluculations. Some of NJ's key political leaders have traditionally been allied with Gore. It is not so much that Gore "owned" their loyalty because he did not, things are rarely so blatent. But Gore going over to Dean changed the equation in two fundemental ways. The first and most obvious one is that Democratic politicians in NJ who historically have been allied with Gore, were they now to endorse anyone other than Dean, would be breaking with Gore on a key political decision. That is a mule of a completely different color than simply going out on a limb to endorse one candidate over another. The second key factor was, simply put, the bandwagon concept. Given that there was politically something to be gained by falling in behind Gore rather than opposing him on this matter, and given that Dean was already the strong front runner, who obviously would be further helped by Gore's endorsement, it made sense to back Dean sooner rather than later, so as to get a relatively good seat on Dean's bus.
I am not saying that Dean might not have won those NJ endorsements anyway had Gore stayed out of the race. He might have, but Gore certainly helped to hasten the decision. And I am not blaming Dean's campaign or his backers for the work they did to secure Gore's endorsement. They were obviously effective in their efforts, and it paid off for them. Heck I was trying to play inside politics myself by talking to my friend about Clark in the first place. What I can say is that my friend at least, was not going to come out for Clark or anyone else before McGreevey made his decision, that Gore was an important factor, and now that McGreevey is backing Dean, my friend has "fallen in line" behind Dean despite some personal misgivings.
What does this all say? Well for one thing I felt a certain degree of irony responding to a Dean supporter on another thread who was so upset abuot tha likelyhood that Clark might tap into an insider Political machine to steal the nomination away from Dean, by lining up establishment Democratic super delegates to oppose Dean, rather than defeating him on his own merrits. Dean is no longer just the insurgent candidate people. That doesn't mean that Dean doesn't have a large,active and very impressive grass roots movement supporting him, because Dean certainly does. But Dean is certainly playing insider politics now, with Gore's help, as well as the best of them, and why shouldn't he? I am not scandalized by that.
This is the main reason why I wrote my long thread "The Establishment Politicains Have Already Lost", which some of you may have read. That title might sound ironic in this context, but by that I meant it is my belief that the Party is on the verge of bailing ship on Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman, and Edwards. Some of the party regulars, not all but some, are concluding that a traditional candidate can not win this year, and given that, they will no longer march out onto a limb to support one. I believe Gore helped crystalize that thinking. So if Clark is not the man to emerge out of the first few weeks of contests positioned best to compete against Dean, then whoever does will be outflanked by more and more insiders hopping onto Dean's wagon.
I still believe Clark can win, and I laid out my specific reasoning regarding that elsewhere. But because of the type dynamic that just played out in NJ, I do not think any of the other candidates can. They will be cut short before they have a chance, "The Party" will call the contest by piling on against them. Only another insurgency campaign, with the unpredictable fire of true grass roots enthusiasm, would give pause to that dynamic playing out, in my opinion. Clark could restore balance to the race if he emerges as the alternative to Dean, because he does have such a movement, and that would allow some party leaders to consider backing him afterall, if they truly are concerned that Dean would lose in 2004.
I am off to a bluegrass concert. I will check back later tonight.
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