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I just have a hunch that there ARE some Gore 2000 voters going to Bush. They're hard to pinpoint, but I think they are the kind of people who change their minds inside the voting booth.
I picture people who generally agree with Democratic Party principles, are maybe Center-Right who voted Gore to keep things going the way they were economically under Clinton. BUT, they've been 'traumatized' by 9/11 and the war. Maybe they're a little prejudiced or at least xenophobic, maybe they're a little America First and are "a little tired of all these loser countries in the world fucking everything up so maybe we SHOULD _take care of the problem_ before there's another 9/11". They don't look at the big picture and don't have much empathy for The Other, but they're not rabid about it , though they don't think through the consequences of their "kick their ass once a for all so there's no more trouble" attitude. You might see them as someone who intervenes when they catch their daughter's boyfriend slap their daughter. They rightfully SHOULD stop the violence, but maybe he ends up doing something like beating the boyfriend so bad he's in a coma and then he wonders why HE'S being arrested for attempted murder.
Anyway, I think Bush has been skillful in tearing down Trust in Kerry. The Gore 2000->Bush voter just thinks "SOMETHING needs to be done and I just don't trust Kerry to do it". The guy doesn't pay enough attention to how many things Bush has f*cked UP, and isn't yet directly impacted by them, so he just goes with the Bush 'resolve' to 'protect' him (while asking for no discernible sacrifice).
I think there is a "set that f*cked up Middle East STRAIGHT, once and for all to the detriment of all else" mentality lurking. It's xenophobia, exceptionalism, religion and greed rolled into one, and neither party's members are immune. The GOP just EXPLOITS their people like that.
Bigby
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