McCain is SURGING on Intrade...

[Bicoastal]

...surging to the bottom of the chart, that is. He's back down to where he was a week ago, and Obama has practically reached his record high of 88%.

Expect him to go above 90% by Tuesday morning.

[Two Sheds]

1. I was wondering why you'd post that subject line then it hit me...

on some level, we're a little disappointed right now that there won't be any drama on Tuesday.

[bowens43]

2. Not me....

I want no drama. I want a clear cut, overwhelming win. I want a mandate. I want there to be no doubt. I want a victory and I want it early. I want the Republican party to be crushed.....

[Rocknrule]

6. Me too

I want Obama's victory to be the political equivilent of a Mortal Kombat finishing move

[CherokeeDem]

10. ME, TOO...

I want this over by 7:30 pm...I will be in hotel that night, traveling for business...I plan on hitting the mini-bar and celebrating!

[graywarrior]

3. Oh there will be on the republican side

They'll start talking Impeachment by Tuesday evening.

[quantass]

4. Kinda funny that i actually purchased some McCain shares to hedge my bet...

If McCain looses then I'm out $500 but Obama will be President. Sounds good to me. But if McCain wins then the fucker will pay me back $3000 the very minute he becomes prez-elect.

[RagAss]

5. The surge is working, my friends !

[Honeycombe8]

7. LOL LOL! nt

[HCE SuiGeneris]

8. Freakin heart attack!

:spank: :spank: :spank:

[Hokie]

9. I think it will be before that

I predicted the other day that it would happen Saturday (Obama > 90) but I failed to fully comprehend that Intrade is played and populated by gamblers and right wing idiots. Go read the forums there and you will see. Another proof is what happened Friday night. When Drudge came out with his crap headline from Zogby Obama dropped about 3 points in 5 minutes and McCain rose about 2. Somebody swooped in and bought Obama almost immediately and drove the price back up about half way. When the Gallup poll came out yesterday that showed Obama was getting the undecideds and consolidating a solid lead there was no movement whatsoever on either Obama or McCain. I think Intrade is a useful indicator of generally where the races stand but like most betting markets it is very sensitive to rumors and manipulation. It is kind of addicting to watch the loonies react to the most insignificant perceived "good news" for McCain.

On edit:

Here is a typical thread from the forums there. A poster named "Justme" posts a blockbuster that McCain is way ahead in early voting in Colorado. It turns out that he posted a test page for the election from the Grand Junction Sentinel and all the data is fake.

Justme:

2008 Colorado Presidential / Senate Results - McCain in LEAD!!!


http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/content/gen/spcl/elections2008/index.html

McCain: 483511 votes
Obama: 432089 votes

Subject: Re:2008 Colorado Presidential / Senate Results - McCain in LEAD!!!
*****
frinkwhaabe
Several comments about these results:
# Contradicts significantly with the recent poll of those who have already voted (about 2/3 of likely voters) in Colorado. What is going on here? Is the poll really off by so much? http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_1031424.pdf
# If you look at the results from Denver, it has McCain ahead 49-44%. This contradicts enormously with past trends; in 2004 Kerry won Denver roughly 70-30%.
# Why would the state release early voting data, when such data has the propensity to affect further turnout and thus the outcome of the election? I thought states always waited until polls close on election day to release results.
# The data leaves out much of the counties in the state.
I don't think we can infer too much from these preliminary results (if they are even true). The early voting results from selected counties surely is not a representative sample of the entire voting population. In fact, looking at Denver alone and comparing to 2004 would suggest that election day voters must be far more democratic than republican. OR, McCain is doing very well in Colorado. In any case, over 50% have voted early, and if these preliminary results are true it is going to be very tight once the election day population cast their ballots.

Subject: Re:2008 Colorado Presidential / Senate Results - McCain in LEAD!!!


frinkwhaab wrote:


# Why would the state release early voting data, when such data has the propensity to affect further turnout and thus the outcome of the election? I thought states always waited until polls close on election day to release results.



Yes, I think federal election law prohibits reporting of election results before polls close. Someone correct me if this is wrong. What is typically reported with early voting is the number of registered Dems vs. Repubs that have cast ballots.

Subject: Re:2008 Colorado Presidential / Senate Results - McCain in LEAD!!!
*****
andywend
*****

112358, you are correct that federal election law prohibits the early release of election results.

While I would be very happy if these numbers were true, I believe that somebody is playing games here.

When you click on the individual counties within Colorado, you'll see that the 3rd party candidates names are different.

I wouldn't put any stock in the numbers.

Subject: Re:2008 Colorado Presidential / Senate Results - McCain in LEAD!!!
*****
justme
*****


Agreed. Didn't see that when I Posted it. The county results do not reflect the same state results. My apologies. This is apparently inaccurate information. I just wish if it was a test the newspaper should have stated as such!!


THIS THREAD SHOULD BE PULLED. IF AN ADMIN READS THIS PLEASE DELETE THIS THREAD.