I think Obama will win a comfortable 5-7% victory. Talk me Sideways!!!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I think Obama will win a comfortable 5-7% victory.

No election night suspense. No 60-40 blow-out. Just a good clean easy win with over 300EV. Like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996.

Talk me Sideways!!!

[Two Sheds]

1. I think you're right. Keep it up.

Sideways enough for you?

[Motown_Johnny]

2. sounds about right to me... 10% is to high and 3% to low

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. You are exactly right

6-8%, I think. Ass-kicking, either way. The election will be called five minutes after the polls close in California.

[PM Martin]

4. I am thinking 7%.

[minnesota_liberal]

5. Analyzing the election results already?

Over 300 EV seems likely.

Popular vote is meaningless until the RepubliCons try to downplay Obama's win by citing his narrow 5% win ... ignoring, of course, that Dubyah actually lost the popular vote in 2000.

The funniest part of election coverage will be the Fox "News" zipperheads pointing to the vast stretches of (mostly unpopulated) western states where McCain prevailed and stating that "most of the country" wanted McCain for their president.

[Jennicut]

6. I totally agree. I have him at 307 with Ohio, PA, CO, NM, NV and VA.

I gave FL to McLame. I think he gets Ohio or FL and we take one of those. 4 to 5 point win. Clinton in 1996 was 379 and in 1992 was 370 but he won a lot of the south and Montana and won at 6%. I don't think Obama will get that. He will be at the lowest 274. I think he totally takes NM, CO, and NV.

[grantcart]

7. Obamas 72 million votes are set - those people are going to go to the polls period

Now the question is will 58 62 66 or 68 million going to vote for McCain.


My point is that while a 55-48 is an accurate reflector of the electorate the huge turnout in the polls is going to make it inconvenient and some people are not going to stay in the long lines for hours. Those people will go home and maybe check back later.

They are called McCain supporters. The still heavy turnout will result in many late deciders and soft McCain supporters to give up and so the total vote will be 57/58 for Obama and 41/2 for McCain.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. 15-17%, eh? That's strong, but a distinct possibility.

[Eyes_wide_ open]

14. I'm right there with you grantcart

I do not see a bunch of grouchy-assed McCain supporters waiting in the lines I expect we'll be seeing, especially when it's obvious to most of them he can't win anyways. I even think SC will be much closer than anyone seems to think, I may be naive but I wouldn't be shocked if it flipped ... surprised maybe, but not shocked.

I am soooo looking forward to Tuesday

[Marsala]

8. Gallup says +11 Obama

So you could be underestimating Obama's victory by a factor of 2. It's a landslide either way, of course. I think your educated guess is right, though.

[RichardRay]

9. I'm stuck at 353, I just don't see a way to get over that

unless something really crazy happens. OTOH, I'll take 353 quite happily. (I'll take any number >= 270!)

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

11. No way, I'm talking you up!

I'm with ya on your call. Mine is a conservative 311 EVs. Hoping for more of course.:D

[VADem11]

12. I'll aim slightly higher

I think it will be Obama by 7-10. I'm feeling optimistic right now. :)

[Frank Booth]

13. Sounds ok. There's also a chance it could be 4% or 8%.

Hope this helps.