McCain will need ~58% of the Election Day turnout to win NC

[kick-ass-bob]

All estimates point to a 250K - 300K vote lead for Obama in NC through early voting with 2.6M votes in the books already. The SBOE director foresees another 2M voting tomorrow, meaning that McCain needs to get at least 1.15M if not 1.2M of those 2M to take the state.

:dem:

Lets kick some ass, NC

[vi5]

1. I don't think that's too unlikely...

...not to be a pessimist, but we're talking a deep red southern state. A lot of the likely early voters in all states have tended to favor Obama so it's conceivable that of the restt that 58% of them might be McCain voters.

I obviously hope not, but while on the surface that number seems a high hurdle to jump, it's not entirely unrealistic.

[yodoobo]

3. I suppose it follows that if its mostly Obama folks voting early

then it might lead to a heavy mccain turnout tomorrow (since the obama folks have already voted).

But I'd really like to read more on the methodology on how these early estimates works. I kinda feel like this is reading tea leaves and that makes me nervous.

[ncgrits]

7. NOT deep red, thank you. Purple at best. I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised.

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. OTOH, the lines WILL be long here and it WILL be raining here.

Now, I would (had I not voted early) stand in the rain for three hours to vote for Obama, but how many of the McCains supporters are that thrilled with him that THEY would stand in the rain for three hours to vote for him?

I think the prognosis is pretty good for us.

[yodoobo]

2. How do they estimate Obama's lead in NC so early?

Is it exit polls or just early reporting of results?

Just wondering how that works.

[RaleighNCDUer]

9. There are slots in the polling questions about early voting, in effect

making these last days of polling early exit polls as well.

[JJ]

4. I was wondering how early voting might effect

exit polling tomorrow, if more Democrats voted early.

[ravenna_windream]

5. Let's turn NC blue!

Woohoo!!!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

6. FULL BREAKDOWN HERE:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7724257&mesg_id=7724257