Final SUSA Poll of Ohio: Obama: 48% McCain 46% (O has huge lead with early voters)

[WI_DEM]

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14750

In Ohio, Early Voters May Give Obama Enough Running Head Start That McCain Can't Catch Him on Election Day: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 46%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll released Election Eve. Obama leads 5:3 among those who have already voted. McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. Obama led in the past 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls, but by tapering margins. Obama led by 5 on 10/14/08, by 4 on 10/28/08 and by 2 today. It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day and white voters from Dayton, Cincinnati and along the West Virginia border to show up in larger numbers than they have so far indicated. Research underwritten by WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland and WHIO-TV Dayton. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 744 registered voters and 660 likely voters.


Obama leads among early voters 60-36 and they comprise 30% of this sample.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=61b6fcb1-8e09-4434-864a-8818b10b1661

[thewiseguy]

1. The African American turnout is estimated to be 10%

Is that correct?

[Zynx]

2. That's what it is in a normal election. They really can't judge that with a 660 sample size.

If it's higher, Obama wins the state more comfortably.

[mwei924]

3. There is no way that African American turn out will be 10%.