OBAMA is at FIFTY THREE PERCENT IN ALL GALLUP MODELS!

[berni_mccoy]

The significance of that kind of lead should not go unnoticed.

For a candidate to be that strong in a national poll AND have an electoral vote strength above 320 outside the margin of 5% is a great position to be in the day before the election.

It shows that the recent attacks by the RNC and the McCain campaign have utterly failed. They are simply out of time.

[apnu]

1. Nice, but national polls are meaningless right now.

Its down to the states and those polls. Obama can earn 20 million votes more than McCain and still lose the contest in EV's.

I'm looking at keeping 270 EVs in the state polls, everything else is gravy.

[droidamus2]

2. I don't like to say it but...

I think if any presidential candidate Democrat, Republican or other in this country ever won the popular vote by 20 million votes and somehow still lost the electoral vote I think you would have people taking to the streets to demand a big change in the way we elect our president. To have the people of the country speak through their voting in such a loud and unified voice and then have their choice taken away from them due to an archaic intermediary system like the electoral college would be a travesty.

[berni_mccoy]

3. I don't agree that it's meaningless. 53% is a significant majority in today's politics

And' it's a 11-13 point lead.

It ensures that the "Bradley effect" is offset by the Obama effect.

And if you read my OP, you would see that I consider this lead WITH the Electoral Vote Strength of Obama which is well above 320 right now.

[apnu]

9. I agree with your point on the EV's

Just that I think posting national polls (as many are doing here) as the end all be all statement on tomorrow's contest is faulty. That's all.

[ps1074]

4. No, they are not

There is no scenario where Obama wins by 10-15 million votes and loses the electoral college.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Not going to happen.

Yeesh, it's almost mathematically impossible for Obama to blow McCain out in the popular vote and lose the election through the electoral college.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Can You Tell Me

Can you please tell me the name of the last candidate to win the pop vote by six to thirteen percent and lost the Electoral Collge?

[apnu]

14. 6-13% no. But Gore did win the poplular vote but lost in EV's

And its happened before in our history.

Me saying 20 million is an exaggeration, but it is still very possible that Obama can lose the election but win the popular vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Gore Won The Pop Vote By .05% Not Six To Thirteen Percent

And I think the largest spread before that was Hayes v Tilden in 1876 when the spread was three percent...That election was in a different era when accurate counts were near impossible...

[apnu]

16. Wow, well you got me on electorial history. Bravo! (nt)

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

21. National poll numbers like that indicate he will outperform current polling at the state level

Places like MT, GA and NC come to mind, in addition to keeping Ohio safe from unlicensed plumbers.

[demo dutch]

6. We're still dealing with electoral college, so... Gore won the popular vote remember

[Doctor_J]

7. Not by 9% though

[demo dutch]

8. Yes, but Electoral college always favors Red states- A voter casting a

presidential ballot in Wyoming is three and a half times more influential than a voter in Florida, because while each of Florida’s 27 electoral delegates represents almost 480,000 eligible voters, each of the three delegates from Wyoming represents only 135,000 eligible voters.

This system, along with the winner-take-all practice used to allocate most states’ electoral votes, creates the potential for an absurd outcome. In the unlikely event that all 213 million eligible voters cast ballots, either John McCain or Barack Obama could win enough states to capture the White House with only 47.8 million strategically located votes. The of the electorate’s support, only 16 percent of the entire population’s.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/opinion/02cowan.html?hp

[apnu]

10. I'm with you on that.

The EC is an antiquated system. IMO, our election should be by popular vote with instant runoff voting.

If there is anything that will unify the Democratic Party and the Republican Party it will be opposition to instant runoff voting. Why? because it would weaken the two parties lock on American politics. One or both could collapse and we'd look more like the make up of Canada with many parties in that case.

I'm not sure if that is a bad thing, then people could vote for the party that best fits their view. Which would mean the Greens and the Libertarians would actually be something in America.

[northernlights]

17. where did anyone say popular vote was the "be all and end all?"

The OP noted it's significance, which it is. I, personally, won't be satisfied with even an EV landslide. I want to see a popular landslide as well. I want a mandate. I also want to know that a significant number of my fellow Americans are not complete and utter fools. I don't think I can live another day feeling surrounded by total stoopid.

[IsItJustMe]

18. I know how you feel. I have been living for the last eight years saying to myself, "WTF is wrong

with this country?"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Gore Won The Pop Vote By .05% Not Six To Thirteen Percent

~

[Two Sheds]

11. A strong PV mandate is not insignificant...

The bigger his PV margin, the more he'll be able to press his program home early in his Administration.
As President, Obama will be evaluated on the basis of approval ratings. They don't do that by state, do they? If he has a huge base of votes, he'll have a better chance of doing well by that measurement.
How he does in approval ratings will have a huge effect on whether or not he faces credible opposition in four years.
Popular vote matters. Not as much as it should, but it matters like hell.

[SurfinBetty]

19. I don't think its good to count the chickens now

His lead is still within the margin of error. Saying he's ahead so much will cause people to stay home and not bother voting.

[Name removed]

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