Obama election and the Global Consciousness Project

[crispini]

If you're not familiar with the GCP, here's a quick snip of who they are:

We have been collecting data from a global network of random event generators since August, 1998. The network has grown to about 65 host sites around the world running custom software that reads the output of physical random number generators and records a 200-bit trial sum once every second, continuously over months and years... Our purpose is to examine subtle correlations that reflect the presence and activity of consciousness in the world. We have learned that when millions of us share intentions and emotions the GCP/EGG network shows correlations. We can interpret this as evidence for a growing global consciousness.

And, guess what -- the Obama election win definitely registered:

Beginning about two hours before the official announcement that Obama had won, the data show a consistent positive trend that continues through the declaration at 23:00 ET and his subsequent speech to 125,000 people at Grant Park in Chicago and the public via TV. The formal data segment overall shows a modest positive trend through the 24 hour period. Chisquare is 86806.274 on 86400 df, for p = 0.164 and Z = 0.977. This represents a relatively large effect size compared with the average of Z = 0.33 over the full GCP database.

Late in the day, with a clear win in Pennsylvania and Ohio also decided for Obama, his win appears to be a fait accompli. At this time, about two hours before the official declaration, the data take on a steady positive trend. It continues through the formal announcement and McCain's concession speech at 11:00 pm and for two hours after Obama's acceptance speech in Grant Park at midnight. The following figure shows this period of time. This is of course a post hoc analysis, rather than a formal result, but the trend is consistent with the idea that the widespread and intense emotional response to Obama's election might register on our network.

Lots more interesting details and math here:

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/obama.elected.html

[drm604]

1. I've read about the GCP before and I have to be honest and express my extreme skepticism about it.

Correlation does not equal causation.

I just can't see how human emotion, on whatever scale, can affect quantum-indeterminate electronic noise. It strikes me that it's very easy to see a spike in the output and then look to current news for some "important" event and then claim correlation.

If the output is up leading up to and during the announcement of election results then they can claim that it was due to the election results. If it was down then they could have claimed that the dire economic situation overwhelmed the good feelings about the election. Either way, they could claim correlation to some real world set of events.

Maybe I'm missing something here but, in all respect (and I mean that seriously, this isn't an attack on the OP), this doesn't strike me as scientific.

[crispini]

2. I'm not a scientist or statistician.

I DO understand that "correlation does not equal causation." I also understand that I do not have a statistical or scientific background necessary to engage thoughtfully with what they are doing here, but I find it intriguing. There is a very interesting exchange between two scientists on this page:

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/questions.html

I'd be interested in your take on their exchange from a scientific point of view.

As far as human emotion affecting electronic noise.... the only thing that pops immediately to mind is the particle-wave duality, where the observation of the phenomenon affects the outcome of the phenomenon. :shrug: There are more things under heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy. ;)