http://www.swingstateproject.comResearch 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):
Tom Vilsack (D): 44
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4%)
The Great Orange Satan continues to test the temperature of 2010's Senate races, and it gives us a pretty surprising result out of Iowa: Chuck Grassley, the longtime and popular GOP Senator, is surprisingly vulnerable to a challenge from ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack.
In the diaries recently, desmoinesdem nicely laid out the contours of this race, and identified the basic conundrum facing Democrats here:
And that brings me to the paradox in the title of this post. Clearly Grassley's retirement would give Democrats the best chance (some might say only chance) to win this seat. However, Grassley is more likely to retire if Tom Vilsack or another major-league Democrat jumps in now, instead of waiting a year or longer to see whether the incumbent will decide to step down for some other reason.
Challenging Grassley means embarking on long and exhausting uphill battle. But putting Grassley on notice soon that Democrats will not give him a pass is one of the few things we could do to improve the odds that he will retire.
Polls like this one may give the 'Sack some encouragement to actually pull the trigger -- and possibly precipitate a retirement from Grassley, who will be 77 years old on election day.